MLB Targets: July 20th

Let’s take a look at tonight’s five-game main slate on DraftKings. The best place for last minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there @RyNoonan. Let’s dig in.

Pitcher

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Stud

Madison Bumgarner – SFG vs. SD –$11,800 – Madison Bumgarner was not his typical dominant self during his last start, but he’s still likely to be the uber-chalk in this spot tonight against the Padres. San Diego has a slate-low 2.9 implied team total and a robust 27.3 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season. Luis Severino is an interesting pivot, but I think you’ll need MadBum in cash games.

Other Options – Luis Severino ($11,000), Michael Fulmer ($10,200)

Value

Brandon McCarthy – LAD vs. ATL – $6,600 – The secondary market for starting pitching is rather weak tonight, but Brandon McCarthy is worth a look and could make a lot a sense if Freddie Freeman, who left Wednesday’s contest early due to an illness, sits this one out. While McCarthy isn’t missing bats as frequently as he has in the past few years, he’s still doing a decent job at minimizing hard contact and will be a very popular SP2 in cash games if Freeman is indeed out.


Catcher

Stud

Buster Posey – SFG vs. SD – $4,100 – After a slow April, Buster Posey has been quietly putting together his typical elite level season at the dish. His hard-hit contact rate is up 4 percent over the past two weeks, and he’s in a good spot tonight against Jhoulys Chacin if you’re inclined to spend up at the catcher position.

Other Options – Gary Sanchez ($4,600)

Value

James McCann – DET vs. KC – $2,500 – Although he hasn’t fared particularly well against Danny Duffy in his small sample of at-bats against him, James McCann mashes left-handed pitching and is worth a look at this deep discount. His .362 ISO mark against lefties this season is the type of upside that you’ll want in tournaments.

Other Options – Welington Castillo ($3,100)


First Base

Stud

Cody Bellinger – LAD vs. ATL – $5,400 – The young Dodgers rookie has finally cooled a bit after his torrid May and June, but this kid is the real deal. Atlanta’s starter Mike Foltynewciz continues to be baffled by left-handed bats, allowing a .375 wOBA against them this season, which is right in line with his career rate-against of .371. Bellinger and the Dodgers’ left-handed bats should be popular in this spot.

Value

Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. KC – $4,000 – I’ll continue to think that Miguel Cabrera will bounce back to his true form, especially while he’s priced so favorably. While he’s hitting the ball on the ground more than I’d like to see, Miggy is still making elite-level hard contact and is very much in play here against Danny Duffy.


Second Base

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Stud

Jonathan Schoop – BAL vs. TEX – $4,200 – After multiple seasons of a reverse-splits profile, Jonathan Schoop seems to have figured out left-handers a bit this season. Baltimore’s All-Star second baseman is entering play with .395 wOBA and .260 ISO against lefties this season, and I like his chances to catch a hanging curve from Cole Hamels tonight. He’s a solid option in both cash games and tournaments.

Value

Starlin Castro – NYY vs. SEA – $3,000 – The addition of Todd Frazier will likely move Starlin Castro down in the loaded Yankees’ lineup, but this is a great price for the Yankees’ second baseman. Castro has hit better against right-handed pitching his entire career and is in play tonight on the road against Felix Hernandez if you need to save.


Third Base

Stud

Adrian Beltre – TEX vs. BAL – $4,400 – Third base is one of the deeper positions on this abbreviated slate, but my favorite play is Adrian Beltre. Facing Orioles’ lefty Wade Miley, Beltre is penciled into the three spot in Texas’ lineup. Beltre has been swinging it well of late and has a .422 wOBA against lefties in his limited number of at-bats this season.

Other Options – Freddie Freeman ($5,300), Manny Machado ($4,700)

Value

Nick Castellanos – DET vs. KC – $4,300 – I wish he was a bit cheaper, but Nick Castellanos is a great play after you get past the top-tier plays at the position. The line-drive machine owns left-handed pitching, entering play with .438 wOBA and .390 ISO against them on the season. He’ll hit second tonight on the road and is an elite play in tournaments.


Shortstop

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Stud

Corey Seager – LAD vs. ATL – $5,000 – I mentioned Braves’ starter Mike Foltynewciz’s pitfalls against lefties when discussing Cody Bellinger, and all those notes apply here for Corey Seager as well. I’d obviously look elsewhere if you’re filling the position with a cheaper option, but a Dodgers lefty stack is very much in play.

Other Options – Elvis Andrus ($4,400)

Value

Jean Segura – SEA vs. NYY – $4,000 – Jean Segura is always on my radar against right-handed pitching because his reverse splits are sizable, and I love him, even more, tonight at this reduced price. We’ve been paying nearly $5,000 for Segura most nights this season, and he could be a strong leverage play against Luis Severino.


Outfield

Stud

Aaron Judge – NYY vs. SEA – $5,500 – There just aren’t many bats on this slate, or any slate for that matter, that possess the upside of Aaron Judge. I know we’re way past of the days of Felix Hernandez being a viable DraftKings play every fifth day, but I’m not sure we’ve entered the spot where we’re frequently targeting him with bats. That might keep Judge’s ownership levels down and that has to be intriguing to tournament players.

Other Options – Justin Upton ($4,300)

Value

Joc Pederson – LAD vs. ATL – $4,000 – We’re rounding out the Dodgers’ lefty narrative here. Young Joc is very much in play here in the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup and the price isn’t something that should scare us away.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.