We have a nice 7 game slate tonight in the MLB. Drew Pomeranz makes his debut for the Red Sox, and there are a number of top hitting options to choose from tonight. Here are some top plays for the slate based on price and expected production.
Drew Pomeranz – Red Sox v. Giants – $10,600 – Pomeranz is the top pitching option for his debut here, and the price is not crazy. He faces a team he knows well in the Giants, and this offense is missing a bunch of key pieces. Pomeranz has been awesome in 2016. Both right and left-handed batters are hitting about .220 or below against him. His ERA is only 2.47, his WHIP is 1.06, and he has struck out 115 in 102 innings of work. Buster Posey is the only right-handed bat with solid numbers against left-handed pitching currently in that Giants lineup, so I expect we see a good start for Pomeranz in his debut at a very reasonable price.
Jaime Garcia – Cardinals v. Padres – $7,900 – Pomeranz is the only real stud on the day, but we do have some solid SP2 options to discuss. Garcia is definitely one of the best. He faces a watered down Padres lineup on the back end of a double header. The Padres normally hit left-handed pitchers well, but Garcia is a rare reverse splits lefty who actually is tough on right-handed bats and gives up more to left-handed hitters. Guys like Will Myers and Matt Kemp have solid numbers vs. lefties, but I do think Garcia can handle the rest of that lineup with ease.
Michael Pineda – Yankees v. Orioles – $7,700 – Pineda isn’t as ‘safe’ as Garcia, so he is probably better used in tournaments. He has more upside, but the Orioles have a ton of power bats to worry about. However, they also strike out a good amount. Pineda has strikeout potential which profiles well against this lineup. If Chris Davis sits for a third straight game, you would be looking at a ton of righties with Pedro Alvarez and Matt Weiters being the two best left-handed hitters they have left. This is a sneaky good spot for Pineda who is tough on righties.
Bud Norris – Dodgers v. Nationals – $6,100 – I am not a Bud Norris fan, but the price is very cheap for the production he has given us in the last few games. He is averaging 21 DK points over his last seven games and is only $6,100. He will have a tough time with the top of that Nationals order, however. Harper has a .400+ wOBA and a .300+ ISO, Murphy is back and hits right-handed pitching well and Ben Revere leading off is another lefty they will throw at Norris. With that being said, he does not need to be lights out to return value at only $6,100, and it’s tough to argue against how good he has been lately.
David Ortiz (1B) – Red Sox v. Giants – $5,600 – Big Papi is still mashing right-handed pitching, and is doing so at one of the better rates of his career. He owns a .439 wOBA and a .350 ISO score against right-handed pitchers since the start of 2015. Matt Cain is fresh off the DL and a shell of his former self. He is 1-5 on the year with an ERA over 5 runs. Papi is in another great spot tonight.
Mike Trout (OF) – Angels v. Rangers – $5,200 – In Trout’s last three games, he is 4-for-9 with six runs scored, 3 RBI, 2 walks, a home run and a stolen base. He is a .400+ wOBA guy with a high .280 ISO score, and tonight he faces Martin Perez who allows a high batting average to right-handed bats. Trout is a great cash game option here as he has consistently scored double digits in his last few games and shows no signs of stopping.
Bryce Harper (OF) – Nationals v. dodgers – $4,600 – Harper has monster numbers against right-handed pitching throughout his career. His .439 wOBA and .306 ISO scores are some of the best splits we see for any batter against any handedness of pitcher in The Show. Bud Norris has been really good lately, but he has struggled with left-handed bats his whole career.
Mookie Betts (OF) – Red Sox v. Giants – $5,300 – I have the entire Red Sox team popping up highly on my projections today. Betts is my second favorite Boston player after Big Papi, and both guys deserve to be highly owned today. Cain is horrible (as we already stated), and Betts is a guy with huge upside. He owns a .357 wOBA and a .200 ISO score against righties since 2015, so this is a great time to get some exposure to him.
Ryan Braun (OF) – Brewers v. Pirates – $4,200 – Ryan Braun vs a lefty for only $4,200 feels really cheap. Braun and the rest of these Brewers have done well this year against weak left-handed pitching, and Locke certainly qualifies as one of those with a .293 average allowed to right-handed bats. Braun owns a big .413 wOBA against southpaws with a .234 ISO score to highlight his power upside.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – Marlins v. Phillies – $4,900 – Stanton is on fire lately with 13 hits in his last 37 at-bats, including 5 home runs and 6 walks. Stanton owns a solid .355 wOBA against right-handed pitching and a big .200+ ISO score. He also gets a great park bump to a hitter friendly park in Philly, so I’m willing to continue to roll him out.
Ian Desmond (OF) – Rangers v. Angels – $4,300 – I love this spot for Desmond. His price is reasonable at $4,300, he is batting second in the Texas order and he has bounced back with a big season so far highlighted by his current .315 average with 17 home runs. He faces Hector Santiago who has struggled with right-handed bats, a high fly ball rate and allowing home runs. All things that play perfectly into what Desmond brings to the table.
Daniel Murphy (2B) – Nationals v. Dodgers – $4,200 – Murphy is back in the lineup and none too soon for Nationals fans. He is hitting in front of Harper right now, which should guarantee him a lot of pitches to hit. Murphy owns a .377 wOBA and a .222 ISO score against right-handed pitching since 2015. Bud Norris has been good and should take some decent ownership today, which means we might be able to get these Nats lefties lower owned than they should be.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – Yankees v. Orioles – $3,700 – The price is feels way too cheap here for Beltran who has been the Yankees’ best hitter. Beltran has a .360 wOBA against righties and does well at home from the left side of the plate. Beltran has been quietly awesome this year in pinstripes. He has a .301 batting average with 19 home runs, 12 of which he hit at home in Yankee Stadium.
Tommy Joseph (1B) – Phillies v. Marlins – $3,600 – This is one of my favorite cheap swerves on the day off of Big Papi. Tommy Joseph has always hit left-handed pitching well, and this is an ideal matchup for him. He is a power hitter on a roll with 5 home runs in his last 8 games. He faces Chen tonight who struggles with right-handed hitters who have a higher average, huge fly ball rate and more home runs against him. In fact, Chen has given up a home run every 5 innings on average to right-handed bats in the last two seasons and is getting a huge park downgrade with the switch to home run friendly Citizen’s Bank Park in Philly.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – Orioles v. Yankees – $3,600 – This really is not a great matchup for Machado, but the price is too good to ignore. Pineda is tough on right-handed bats, but he is not lights out against them. Machado prefers hitting against right-handed pitchers where both his wOBA and his ISO score are higher. I’m not in love with him for cash games today, but I will be using him for tournaments due to the upside, cheap price and likely lower ownership.
Mikael Franco (3B) – Phillies v. Marlins – $3,800 – I like Franco in this spot for many of the same reasons we like Joseph. Chen struggles with the right-handed hitters and allows a huge HR rate to them. Franco is the 3 hole hitter for the Phillies and arguably the best right-handed bat they do have. He has home run upside, but can also pound out multiple hits and rack up runs scored and RBI. Using the Phillies at the corners today is a cheaper way to get upside for tournaments and a much lower owned route than using the Red Sox bats.
Matt Adams (1B) – Cardinals v. Padres – $3,400 – With Moss out, Adams has been playing first and hitting fifth in the Cardinals order consistently. He also has huge power against right-handed pitching. He gets a very weak right-hander today in Paul Clemens who is a reliever being stretched out. This is likely to turn into an ugly bullpen game on the tail end of the double header caused by yesterday’s postponement. Adams has prime lineup real estate, the right splits and faces bullpen full of bad relief pitchers. That should translate into a solid day at the plate.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is BRich11) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.