Tuesday presents us with an outstanding game set, with several high scoring games looming. Strap into your seats gamers, it is going to be a wild ride!
Carlos Martinez – STL vs SDP – $10,200 – The Padres have an 84 wRC+ (runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ball park factors and creates a league-wide scoring efficiency benchmark of 100) meaning that they score 16% less efficiently against right-handed pitching than the average team. Additionally, they have the fourth highest strikeout rate against righties this season at 23.4% and it is just hard to imagine Martinez having anything less than a quality start in this matchup.
Vincent Velazquez – PHI vs MIA – $9,700 – Velazquez struggled from mid-May through early-June and then ended up on the disabled list. This will be his third start since his DL stint and he has looked much better, going 17 innings while allowing 22 base runners with 20 strikeouts and just four earned runs allowed. He last pitched prior to the All-Star Break, and at this price point I am willing to take a chance that the recovery continues.
Reynaldo Lopez – WAS vs LAD – $4,000 – Lopez will be making his Major League debut with the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night. While he likely will not go more than 75-80 pitches, that should be enough to get him into the fifth inning and in 16 AA/AAA starts this season he has struck out 109 batters in 87 1/3 innings. This is fantastic upside and it would not be a shock to see him get into the 14-16 DraftKings fantasy point range (DKFP) which would be phenomenal for his current minimum price tag.
Dallas Keuchel – HOU at OAK – $8,200 – Keuchel has been solid over his last three starts with nineteen DKFP per game. The last time he faced Oakland, he spun a gem going seven innings with just six baserunners and one earned run allowed on his way to 20.2 DKFP.
Nolan Arenado (3B) – COL vs TBR – $5,500 – The Rockies are back in Coors Field this week and they are going to be popular. The stars have seen their salaries raised to the point where they are not easy to blindly load into a lineup. However, we are going to want to do our best to land Arenado. Since the beginning of 2014 he has posted a .403 wOBA and a ridiculous .298 ISO at home in the thin air of the Mile High City. If you can’t quite get all the way up to Arenado, then teammate Trevor Story (SS) – $5,100 is an adequate consolation prize against LHP Blake Snell.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS vs LAD – $4,500 – While he is on the downward slope of his career, Werth can still get it done versus left-handed pitching. Over the last two-plus seasons he has a .400 wOBA and a .220 ISO in righty/lefty matchups. This is a favorable matchup against LHP Scott Kazmir and we can also consider teammate *Danny Espinosa (SS) – $4,400 as a contrarian option with excellent upside as he has 18 home runs on the year with seven coming against lefties in just 75 at bats.
Jose Altuve (2B) – HOU at OAK – $4,900 – Whenever Altuve gets a matchup with a southpaw, he is worthy of our consideration. He will be facing LHP Dillon Overton who will be making his third career start. In his last start he lasted three innings allowing eleven baserunners and eight earned runs.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs SFG – $5,600 – In his final season, Big Papi continues to get things done with a .327 average, 22 home runs and 72 RBI. He is stellar against right-handed pitching and we have seen RHP Jake Peavy struggle with allowing crooked numbers against the offensive juggernaut teams.
Manny Machado (3B/SS) – BAL at NYY – $4,100 – This is a nice matchup for Machado against RHP Nathan Eovaldi as he excels against same-handed pitching, has multi-position eligibility and a very fair price tag which leaves room for upside potential. On the season, Eovaldi has allowed 19 home runs which is the tenth most in the MLB and also means that Baltimore bopper Chris Davis (1B) – $4,000 is in play as he has a great opportunity to deposit a Rawlings ball into the Yankee Stadium leftfield porch.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE at KCR – $4,800 – The Royals have swapped out scheduled starter RHP Chris Young for LHP Brian Flynn who will be coming out of the bullpen. Flynn will probably be good for 45-50 pitches so there is still a good chance we see Young make an appearance as the long-reliever. Napoli has nice power upside and on the season he has 20 home runs and 63 RBI.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF) – MIN at DET – $4,400 – Though his young career, Sano has been outstanding against fellow right-handers with a monster .240 ISO over 463 plate appearances. RHP Anibal Sanchez has been a mess this season, with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP, and is someone we will want to pick on as long as he keeps making starts for the Tigers.
Victor Martinez (1B) – DET vs MIN – $3,400 – Martinez has been stellar against lefties over his last 317 at bats with a .416 wOBA and a .230 ISO. He will be seeing pitches from LHP Tommy Milone who has made it to the fifth inning in just three of his eight starts this season and carries a 5.23 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP.
Andrew McCutchen (OF) – PIT vs MIL – $3,400 – McCutchen may finally be getting healthy as he has been serviceable over his last ten games with a .279 average, two home runs and a stolen base. He is clearly not at his peak powers, however we are not paying full price either.
Trea Turner (2B/SS) – WAS vs LAD – $3,200 – Turner is a fine discount option who will likely be near the top of the order for the Nationals on Tuesday night. He can slot in at either middle infield position and provides us with some flexibility for lineup construction.
Corey Dickerson (OF) – TBR at COL – $3,900 – Dickerson is in his old stomping grounds and he will likely get the start for the Rays tonight in a lefty/righty matchup against former teammate RHP Tyler Chatwood.
Brandon Belt (1B) – SFG at BOS – $3,700 – Belt will almost assuredly be in the Giants lineup since they are in Boston and will have the luxury of the designated hitter slot. He has really turned things on this season and though he has been in a slump for most of July, we will want to be there while we can get him at a discounted price like tonight.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA at CHW – $3,200 – While LHP Jose Quintana is a solid pitcher that does not allow many home runs, this is too tasty a price point to pass on Gutierrez who has compiled a .394 wOBA and a .280 ISO over his last 29 plate appearances in righty/lefty matchups.
Tommy Pham (OF) – STL vs SDP – $3,500 – Pham looks to be installed somewhat permanently as the leadoff man for the Cardinals. He has performed well and we have seen that he has nice pop in his bat.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is emac) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.