Today’s targets will focus on the 11 game slate tonight, which features some challenging pitching decisions to go with some sneaky offensive matchups and a game at Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jose Fernandez – MIA @ PHL – $13,800 – There is a premium to be paid on this slate for access to top end results, and Fernandez is where you’re paying it. 2.27 SIERA, 14% swinging strike rate, 12.2 K/9 and 52% GB rate over his last five starts, he’s likely facing against a RH heavy lineup, where Fernandez is generating 25% soft contact and only giving up 25% hard. He’s a big favorite in a seven run total, leaving the Phillies with an implied 2.9 runs.
Corey Kluber – CLE @ KC – $11,900 – KC isn’t the tough matchup against RHP they used to be, currently 20th in wOBA and 21st in wRC+ for the season, a 20.8% K rate for the year and they are 24th in offense over the last 14 days. Meanwhile, Kluber has a 3.11 SIERA over his last five starts and a 8.9 K/9 rate. He’s a favorite as well, even in KC, further underlining the offensive struggles there for the Royals.
Mike Leake – STL vs. SD – $8,200 – The Padres have a better lineup than the one that has built their current standing as 28th against RHP with a 24.4% K rate, but even with their 10th place wOBA/wRC+ standing over the last 14 days, they strike out nearly 28% of the time, and STL SP Leake has been stingy with hard contact, with a 24% HH total over his last couple starts and a 3.36 SIERA and a 60% GB rate over his last six starts. San Diego has the fourth lowest implied run total of the slate, so context is important when trying to pick a lower cost SP on this slate. More cash game play than tourney, as Leake lacks the high K upside to hit the high notes there.
Nick Tropeano – LAA vs. TEX – $7,900 – Not excited about this, but the numbers keep pointing to Trop as a solid value play against the Rangers, who have an implied run total of 4.2. The Rangers are 20th in wRC+ against RHP this season with a 20% K rate. In Tropeano’s last two starts, he’s had a 3.71 SIERA and a 9.8 K/9 rate supported by a 13% swinging strike rate.
Trevor Story (SS) – COL vs. TB – $5,400 – In 45 home at-bats against LHP this season, Story has a 64.5% HH rate, making a great play against TB SP Smyly, who is giving up 37.4% hard contact against RH bats away from Tampa and 1.65 HR/9 IP overall.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF) – MIN @ DET – $4,400 – Sano has a 39% HH rate over his last two weeks and his fly ball rate is a healthy 45% for the season, ready to take advantage of DET SP Boyd’s 1.861/9 HR rate.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL @ NYY – $4,100 – Machado has been sneaking back into the hard hit mix, with above average rates in both expected power (120) and hard hit rating (120) over his last 90 at-bats. He has a nice nice .389 wOBA/.239 ISO against RHP and the Orioles are looking at a 4.7 implied run total in Yankee Stadium tonight.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ NYY– $4,300 – NYY SP Nova has given up 1.542 HR/9 IP and Yankee Stadium is the best for LH power, which is what Davis (188 expected power for the season) has in bunches.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET vs. MIN – $4,600 – The Tigers have a Coors Field-esque 5.5 run implied total, thanks in large part to the reverse split troubles of MIN SP Ricky Nolasco, who has a .365 wOBA and 38.4% hard contact rate on the road against RH bats. Cabrera has been great lately, with a 143 expected power over his last 93 at-bats.
Jay Bruce (OF) – CIN vs. ATL – $4,600 – Middle of the lineup LH power bat (128 expected power, 46% flyball rate over last 30 days) against ATL SP Wisler, who struggles against LH bats, with a .375 wOBA. The Reds have a 4.8 implied run total at home tonight against ATL.
Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA vs. CWS – $4,400 – Cruz is always a nice target against LHP as he has a 40% hard contact rate against LHP this season. He carries a .434 wOBA/.333 ISO split against lefties as well. Chris Sale hasn’t been the same guy, giving up 1.2 HR/9 IP, giving up two per 9 IP in his last four starts. Against Sale lifetime, Cruz is 7-16 with a pair of homers and a pair of walks with only three Ks.
Logan Forsythe (2B) – TB @ COL – $5,100 – Forsythe is lethal against LHP: 45% hard hit rate, .442 wOBA, .319 ISO — and that’s before you put him in Coors Field against COL SP Anderson, who’s giving up 36% hard contact at home against RH bats so far in his small sample.
Kennys Vargas (1B) – MIN @ DET – $3,600 – Tremendous power (169 expected power, 100 is considered average) against DET SP Boyd, who gives up 1.861 HR/9 IP this season. Vargas has a 66% HH rate over his last six games and should be batting in the middle of the lineup.
Nick Hundley (CATCH) – COL vs. TB – $3,800 – Coors Field under $4K. We’ve already established the RH bat credentials against TB SP Smyly and Hundley matches up well with a 44% recent hard hit rate, .400+ wOBA against LHP and 137 expected power over his last 30 days.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – NYY vs. BAL – $3,200 – Beltran has a 138 expected power over his last three games and a nice weather matchup against RHP Gausman in Yankee stadium.
Gordon Beckham (2B/3B) – ATL @ CIN – $3,600 – Beckham’s hitting LHP well this season, with a terrific .397 wOBA in that split and CIN SP Finnegan offering 1.697 HR/9 IP this season.
Justin Upton (OF) – DET vs. MIN – $3,300 – 43% hard contact in his last eight games, Upton has stepped up in the absence of J.D. Martinez. The Tigers have that strong 5.5 implied run total going for them against MIN SP Nolasco.
Matt Holliday (OF) – STL vs. SD – $3,500 – High implied run total for STL, who lands at 4.9 runs against SD SP Friedrich, who has given up 2.1 HR/9 IP over his last six starts. Holliday has a 158 expected power over his last 90 at-bats and 229 in his last two games.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.