WATCH: AARON JUDGE’S POST ALL-STAR SLUMP
Monday gets the week started with a 12-game MLB slate. Let’s dive right into my top targets and picks for this evening’s games.
Marcus Stroman — TOR vs. BOS — $8,900 – To go against the grain a bit here, picking Stroman is more about the Red Sox struggles on offense. Don’t get me wrong, he’s pitched exceptionally over the last three starts, with three ER and 17 Ks over 19.2 IP. But Boston scored just nine runs in its four-game series vs. the Yankees this past weekend, batting a combined .201 in the set. I expect high ownership on Lance McCullers Jr. ($11,500), making Stroman a nice pivot.
Other Options: Adam Wainwright ($9,100), Jason Vargas ($8,800)
Chad Kuhl — PIT vs. MIL — $5,600 – I’ve spent a lot of time this season writing about how you should avoid Kuhl. Seems the tables have turned a bit, with Kuhl looking like a decent play vs. the Brewers at home. Two of his past three starts have been quality, and Kuhl has allowed just two ER over 8.0 IP in two starts vs. Milwaukee this season. He’s been great in July and has a respectable 3.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.
Other Options: Andrew Cashner ($6,100), Bryan Mitchell ($4,400)
Buster Posey — SF vs. CLE — $4,000 – Posey carries plenty of momentum from the weekend into Monday, going 5-for-12 with three runs, a double, a HR and two RBI vs. the Padres. That’s a good sign considering Posey was struggling mightily prior to the All-Star Break. Posey has gotten on base more often at home (.442), it just hasn’t translated into more DKFP. That could change vs. Josh Tomlin, who has allowed seven HRs in seven road starts (5.57 ERA).
Other Options: Evan Gattis ($4,200), Salvador Perez ($3,800)
Kurt Suzuki — ATL vs. CHC — $3,300 – Suzuki has had a great month so far. He’s eigth in average (.368), first in isolated power (.526) and third in wOBA (.516) in July, albeit in limited playing time. Suzuki has hit lefties well this season (.286) and Cubs’ LHP Jon Lester is sporting a less-than-stellar 14.29 ERA in two July starts.
Other Options: Jonathan Lucroy ($2,900), Yadier Molina ($2,700)
Justin Bour — MIA vs. PHI — $4,500 – Bour got the day off Sunday and will be fresh Monday vs. Jerad Eickhoff and the Phillies. We all saw what Bour can do power-wise from the HR derby, and he’s doubled in two starts since then. Bour has just about been even in production at home and on the road, though he has hurt Philly this season, going 6-for-18 with two HRs in five starts (10.8 DKFP per game).
Other Options: Ian Desmond ($4,500), Mike Napoli ($4,100)
Logan Morrison — TB vs. OAK — $3,900 – I know, Morrison’s price is a bit high to be considered a “value” play. But considering the type of production you can get Monday night from LoMo, and where he’s priced among first basemen, I’m willing to let it slide. Morrison has hit HRs in back-to-back games, and A’s SP Daniel Gossett has allowed five such hits in his last three starts.
Other Options: Kendrys Morales ($3,300), Ji-Man Choi ($3,000)
Jonathan Schoop — BAL vs. TEX — $4,000 – The surprise All-Star has outplayed teammates Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis this season. Despite being the Orioles’ best hitter, Schoop comes in 9th among 2B in price tonight. He’s been as consistent as they come, with hits in 10 of 12 games in July.
Other Options: Brian Dozier ($4,700), Jose Ramirez ($4,600)
Ehire Adrianza — MIN vs. NYY — $2,700 – I realize I recommended Mitchell as a potential value play. But should he struggle (like he’s accustomed to), Adrianza becomes appealing should he start in the INF. He hit a solo HR off Mike Fiers of the Astros on Sunday and could see more playing time. Minnesota is a great stack option if you’re not on the Mitchell bandwagon.
Other Options: Brad Miller ($3,400), Ian Kinsler ($3,200)
Nolan Arenado — COL vs. SD — $5,200 – Arenado is in one of those stretches where it’s almost impossible to get him out. He’s batting .375 with three HRs and 12 RBI in his last 40 ABs and has been a nightmare for the Padres this season. In nine games vs. San Diego, Arenado is 12-for-33 with two HRs, three 2Bs and eight RBI (10.4 DKFP per game). He’s also hit well at Coors Field (shocker).
Other Options: Miguel Sano ($4,600), Alex Bregman ($3,900)
Jose Reyes — NYM vs. STL — $3,400 – Reyes is another name that has looked a lot better after getting some rest during the All-Star break. He went 6-for-12 with four runs, a HR and three RBI over the weekend vs. the Rockies. Reyes is also 4-for-11 with a solo HR (9.7 DKFP on average) in three games vs. the Cards this season. St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright shut the Mets down before the break but has been bad on the road (8.36 ERA in eight starts).
Other Options: Ryon Healy ($3,000), Martin Prado ($3,000)
Eduardo Escobar — MIN vs. NYY — $4,200 – The more I think about it, the more I believe Mitchell will get shelled by the Twins tonight. If that happens, Escobar will likely be involved if he gets the start. He killed it in June, batting .354 with four HRs and 10 RBI, carrying that play into early July.
Other Options: Francisco Lindor ($4,300), Didi Gregorius ($3,700)
Alcides Escobar — KC vs. DET — $3,000 – Tigers SP Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t been able to keep runners off the base paths this season, sporting a 1.52 WHIP (1.70 on the road). Escobar isn’t exactly getting on base at a high rate, but is batting .270 in his last 10 games with fewer strikeouts (four in 37 ABs). Ultimately, he’s going to put the ball in play, which has served batters facing Zimmermann well.
Other Options: Brandon Crawford ($3,300), Tim Beckham ($2,800)
Aaron Judge — NYY vs. MIN — $5,400 – I think a lot of DraftKings lineups tonight will shy away from Judge because of his recent slump. The towering OFer is batting .220 with three HRs and 17 Ks over his last 41 ABs. But that only makes him more appealing to me, with a likely lower ownership than usual and solid pitching matchup. Adalberto Mejia is second among Twins’ pitchers with at least 50 IP this season with a 15.1% HR/FB ratio.
Other Options: George Springer ($5,600), Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500), Steven Souza Jr. ($4,300)
Marcell Ozuna — MIA vs. PHI — $4,200 – Considering how many OFers are on a given slate, Ozuna lands in the same category as Morrison in terms of being a value play. He’s low enough in price that he’ll go under-the-radar among elite options at OF. Ozuna is riding a five-game hitting streak and has his 14 of his 23 HRs at Marlins Park this season. He’s also batting .326 in his last 43 ABs, the only thing missing is some power production.
Other Options: Jose Bautista ($3,700), Matt Kemp ($3,600), Cory Spangenberg ($3,500)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is bzweiman521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.