There is a robust eleven game slate tonight with some top-shelf pitching, discount dandies and a game in Coors Field. This will be a fun tournament night and we can also use the Olympics as a backdrop for family time as we keep one eye on our MLB scores.
Stephen Strasburg – WAS vs SFG – $11,900 – Strasburg is 15-1 this season and he is flirting with career bests across the board. Tonight he will be taking on a tough San Francisco squad who has most of their injured players back and has bolstered their lineup for the stretch run to the playoffs. The Nationals are just over 2-to-1 favorites to garner the win tonight and Strasburg has double digit strikeout upside, even against a disciplined team like the Giants.
Aaron Sanchez – TOR at KCR – $10,800 – Sanchez gets a ballpark boost with this game being away from the Rogers Centre and he was outstanding in his other start against the Royals with eight innings pitched allowing one solo homer and four baserunners, though he only had three strikeouts. While the Royals no longer lead the league with the lowest strikeout rate, they are still stingy and that does curb the projected upside of Sanchez. This is offset by the fact that Kansas City has scored just 25 runs over their last eleven games.
Paul Clemens – SDP vs PHI – $4,300 – This is purely a price play, but the Phillies offense is not overly scary and they have finally climbed out of the bottom five this season in scoring efficiency against right-handed pitching, but they are still well below league average. Clemens left his last start with back tightness, but is reportedly good to go in this matchup. We actually have a contingency plan and can utilize the DraftKing’s “late-swap” feature if he happens to be scratched at the last minute and pivot to RHP Jake Thompson – $4,400 in this same game if we leave ourselves the extra $100. This is Thompson’s debut and in 21 Triple-A starts this season he has a very solid 2.50 ERA. If you want to get really crazy with a tournament lineup, double down on these two hurlers and load up on an All-Star lineup of hitters.
Carlos Martinez – STL vs ATL – $9,800 – The Rooster is the way to go as a fine SP2 or even as a top pitching option if your strategy is to work in a few more expensive hitters Saturday night. On the season, the Braves have been in the bottom five against right handed pitchers by most measures and there is a strong likelihood that Martinez and the Cardinals get the win tonight.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS vs SFG – $4,700 – Ramos is a fine tournament option as most gamers will be looking to work in as many hitters from the Coors Field extravaganza as possible. Friday night he set a career high with his 17th home run of the season and he has an overall slash line of .332/.381/.545 with 61 RBI. He will be facing RHP Matt Cain who is winding up a fine career, but who is currently barely hanging on to his rotation spot. Since the beginning of 2015, Cain has allowed 1.82 HR/9 against right-handed hitters which only serves to sweeten this matchup.
Carlos Correa (SS) – HOU vs TEX – $4,400 – We can look to the talented young shortstop against all types of pitchers and he has been particularly effective in his career against fellow righties. Through 631 plate appearance he has posted a .370 wOBA and a .220 ISO and definitely has the advantage over RHP Lucas Harrell.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – ARZ vs MIL – $4,500 – Goldy is a fine hitter against right-handed pitching, and he faces off against RHP Matt Garza. Since the beginning of 2014, Goldschmidt has tallied a .389 wOBA and a .920 OPS against same-handed hurlers and with 14 stolen bases, so there is a little hidden upside with his speed.
Nolan Arenado (3B) – COL vs MIA – $5,200 – Arenado has tremendous power, particularly when at home in the Mile High City. During his last 1,100 at bats he has compiled a wicked .270 ISO and RHP Andrew Cashner tends to be constantly flirting with danger, which often leads to crooked numbers on the score board.
Ryan Schimpf (2B) – SDP vs PHI – $4,000 – Schimpf is now appropriately priced and this may suppress his popularity as most gamers are now used to rolling him out in the mid-$3,000 range. He has decent upside with the pop in his bat, though as the league has more of a book on him he is now better as a tournament option.
Brandon Moss (1B/OF) – STL vs ATL – $5,100 – Fresh off the disabled list after missing nearly a month with an ankle injury, Moss has shaken off the rust and through his first four games he is 6 for 16 with three doubles and a home run. RHP Mike Foltynewicz will be taking the mound for the Braves and he is allowing a 2.10 HR/9 rate against the last 322 left handed hitters he has faced. Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – $4,700 who was activated yesterday after recovering from an oblique injury is also intriguing in this lefty/righty matchup.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs MIA – $5,600 – While it is normally implied that players in Coors Field games all warrant consideration, I do like to point out the matchups that may be missed by some gamers. Yes, Cargo is incredibly expensive today and he missed Thursday’s game with a tender ankle, however he was seen lobbying to pinch hit in that game and he did start on Friday so he should be good to go. On Wednesday he had a double dong game and today faces RHP Andrew Cashner who has allowed left-handed hitters a .367 wOBA and a 36.0% hard hit rate since the beginning of last season. As long as the weather holds in Colorado, we should see some fireworks.
David Dahl (OF) – COL vs MIA – $3,000 – This is a clear mispricing and it would not be a shock to see Dahl above the $4k level on Sunday. Plug him into all lineups as he gets that great lefty/righty matchup against Andrew Cashner described above and is a deeply discounted ticket to the Rockies 6.0 implied team run total. If teammate Tony Wolters (CATCH) – $3,100 makes the lineup, he will be the most popular backstop in the evening contests.
John Jaso (1B) – PIT vs CIN – $2,300 – While the opportunity cost is high as we are giving up our first base slot to Jaso, this is an extremely low price tag and will allow us to allocate salary to other positions. There is a good chance that Jaso is leading off and with Cincinnati having just closer LHP Tony Cingrani as their lone lefty out of the bullpen, we should see Jaso get 3-4 at bats before any pinch-hitting scenarios come into play.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA vs LAA – $3,100 – This is a favorable price point for Gutierrez who is almost always in my lineups when the Mariners are facing a marginal lefty. LHP Tyler Skaggs has been excellent since returning from Tommy John surgery and over his last 25 innings between the Show and Triple-A he has not allowed a single run. On the other side, we have Gutierrez who is sporting a .389 wOBA and a .260 ISO over his last 231 at bats against southpaws.
Aaron Alther (OF) – PHI at SDP – $3,000 – Alther is solid against right-handed pitching with a .366 wOBA and a .250 ISO over his last 132 plate appearances, and while that is a small sample size, he has been a cheap source of production over his last 31 at bats with three extra base hits and seven runs scored averaging 12.4 DraftKings points during that time frame.
Matt Adams (1B) – STL vs ATL – $3,500 – Going back to the Redbirds against RHP Michael Foltynewicz is not a bad thing as they will likely be an off-the-board team stack. In his last 820 plate appearances in lefty/righty matchups, Adams has produced a .343 wOBA and a .190 ISO and is a fine discount dandy. Teammate Tommy Pham (OF) – $3,300 may be the odd man out tonight with the Cardinals getting close to full health, but if he makes the lineup, just know that he has a .372 wOBA and a .260 ISO against same-handed pitching and Folty is allowing a .341 wOBA, a 30.9 hard hit rate and a 1.44 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is emac) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.