These targets will focus on the nine-game slate tonight, which features few top end pitching options, leaving plenty of offense. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Corey Kluber – CLE vs. MIN – $11,300 – Kluber is a heavy favorite tonight against the Twins, who have a 23% K-rate over the past week and mild 87 wRC+/.127 ISO over the same. Kluber is slightly less effective at home, because CLE is a really good hitter’s park, so he’ll get dinged a little. However, his length of game and K-floor, supported by his 25% K rate at home this season and 26% K-rate over his last five starts, makes him a top option on this pitching starved slate.
David Phelps – MIA at NYM – $8,500 – My credo with pitchers is “Strikeouts Matter”. A high K pitcher provides a floor and margin for error that is critical to win. On tonight’s slate, there is only one pitcher with a 30% K-rate and that’s Phelps. He has a 32% K-rate over the last 30 days and a 30% K-rate even away from spacious Marlins Park. The Mets have been white hot lately, but have the bats that can contribute to the K-floor of Phelps tonight.
Luke Weaver – STL at MIL – $4,500 – It’s been a hoot picking on the Brewers, whose K-rate over the last seven days is an eye-popping 32.3%. Question is: Does Luke Weaver have the goods to take advantage? Weaver’s last 30 days: 3.79 SIERA, 24.6 K/7.7 BB, 9.6 K/9 IP. I think he can get the Ks, but he may give up a long ball to one of the RH bashers the Brewers deploy. I still believe he can make 3-4x value rather well at his salary tonight.
Jason Hammel – CHC vs. PIT – $6,800 – Hammel is much better at home than away, with a 3.97 xFIP and 23% K rate in Wrigley Field this season. The Pirates have been mediocre recently, with an 84 wRC+, .136 ISO and 20% K-rate. Chicago is a favorite on a 7.5 projected run total, leaving Hammel with one of the lowest implied run totals against on the slate.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs. CIN – $4,500 – Nothing not to like here, except maybe the expected ownership level. Price is low, Trout is hot (214 expected power over last week, 100 is average) and CIN SP Finnegan has a 5.46 xFIP, gives up 1.77 HR/9 IP to RH bats on the road this season and 39.1% hard contact in the same split.
Rajai Davis (OF) – CLE vs. MIN – $4,500 – Should be leading off for CLE, who has an implied total of 5.1 runs tonight against MIN SP Dean, who has given up 2.13 HR/9 IP to RH bats this season. This is Davis’ best split, with a 126 wRC+ against LHP at home this season.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS at PHI – $4,800 – Every Nats bat works here against PHI SP Morgan, but RH bats go deep more often, with a 2.63 HR/9 IP rate. Werth has a massive 209 wRC+ in split here, with a .333 ISO. His second slot status in the WAS lineup makes him my first choice to launch against Morgan.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE vs. MIN – $4,200 – Already covered MIN SP Dean above, Napoli’s too inexpensive here in my opinion and the split is right, a 175 wRC+ at home vs. LHP and a solid .246 ISO in split as well.
Ryan Schimpf (2B) – SDP at ATL – $4,600 – Schimpf has a 271 expected power over his last six games and a 167 wRC+/.407 ISO on the road against RHP. ATL SP Wisler has a 5.43 xFIP against LH bats at home and a tiny 4.7% K-BB rate.
Jose Ramirez (3B/OF) – CLE vs. MIN – $4,300 – Last CLE bat, I promise, but the super expensive guys aren’t in a super split and Ramirez is reasonably priced, has a .250 ISO and 146 wRC+ against LHP at home and bats smack dab in the middle of an Indians lineup I really like tonight.
Manny Machado (3B/SS) – BAL vs. TOR – $4,800 – Righties in BAL are the Orioles’ jam, and Machado rips it at a .289 ISO/140 wRC+ clip in split. TOR SP Sanchez is an extreme GB pitcher, putting the high FB rate Orioles on top HR watch tonight.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS at PHI– $4,100 – See Werth’s writeup above for why we’re going after PHI SP Morgan, and add in that Ramos has a strong 141 wRC+, .295 ISO against LHP on the road.
C.J. Cron (1B) – LAA vs. CIN – $3,500 – He has the fire right now, coming off a double-dong game and a current 104 expected power. Cron also faces CIN SP Finnegan, who I already mentioned is giving up 39% hard contact and 1.77 HR/9 IP to RH bats this season. Cron also has slipped into the cleanup spot in L.A., meaning he benefits from Mike Trout being on base a lot.
Jefry Marte (3B/1B) – LAA vs. CIN – $3,200 – Last Angel here, Marte has a .269 ISO against LHP at home and should be in the five-slot for the Angels, who have an implied run total of five runs tonight.
Alex Dickerson (OF) – SDP at ATL – $3,400 – Cleanup hitter on a team with a solid 4.1 implied run total against a weaker RHP who struggles against LH bats. Dickerson has enough pop to take advantage, with a .231 ISO in split here.
Kendrys Morales (1B/OF) – KCR vs. NYY – $3,600 – Morales is making very strong hard contact, with a 139 expected power and 54% hard contact over the past two weeks.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – NYM vs. MIA – $3,900 – So hot right now, with a 226 expected power over his last six games and a 51% hard contact rate over the past two weeks. Should be in the second slot in the lineup against RHP Phelps.
Maikel Franco (3B) – PHL vs. WAS – $3,200 – Very low price here for a #3 batter with a solid .241 ISO against LHP at home, especially when that LHP, Gio Gonzalez, has a 4.53 xFIP against RH bats on the road.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.