Today’s targets will focus on tonight’s 13-game slate, which features some challenging pitching decisions to go with some sneaky offensive matchups and a game at Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jose Fernandez – MIA at NYM – $12,700 – Fernandez is the premiere strikeout pitcher on the slate tonight and has a 44.6% K rate and a 2.7 walk rate against RH bats on the road. He does scuffle a bit against LH bats, where his xFIP rises to 3.53, but his K rate is still close to 26% in that split and he is a heavy favorite in a seven run total.
Yu Darvish – TEX vs. SEA – $10,900 – Seattle is a tough vs. RHP team, but on the road it’s relegated to Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. Otherwise, there are plenty of 20+% K-targets for Yu Darvish to go after. Also, Darvish has been really strong on the soft contact, with 25% for the season.
Rafael Montero – NYM vs. MIA – $4,000 – This is going to be an important one to check the lineups. Miami’s expected lineup had only three LH bats (Gordon, Yelich, Ichiro) leaving Montero to gobble up the six RH bats on the docket. Montero’s K-rate against RH bats in his career is 30.5%. At $4K, it’s easy to see a path to 4-5x for him. The implied total for Miami is under 4, so if he sees three or fewer LH bats, I like his chances to score well at the minimum.
Matt Boyd – DET vs. CHW– $6,700 – His K rate over the last 30 days is a healthy 22%, and he’s settled into an average 21% soft contact/31% hard contact rate. The game total is large (10), but the White Sox end of it is merely four runs and there are a lot of strikeouts in the lineup, led by Todd Frazier who sports a 40% K rate against LHP on the road.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. TOR – $4,900 – This is Baltimore’s sweet spot, facing RHP at home. Trumbo is the leader of the pack in this split, with a 170 wRC+ and .341 ISO, but the whole team is in a good spot here. I like Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones and Pedro Alvarez as well against the struggling Marco Estrada, who is giving up 2.0 HR/9 IP over his last five starts.
Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC vs. PIT – $4,600 – Dating back to the minors, PIT SP Brault has had more difficulty with LH bats than RH bats. That puts Rizzo, and his 173 wRC+/.333 ISO against LHP at home, in play here in my opinion.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR at BAL – $5,200 – Against BAL SP Miley (2.54 HR/9 IP), Donaldson is the leader here with a 187 wRC+ and .377 ISO against LHP on the road and the Blue Jays total is 5.4 implied runs in a hitter’s park tonight.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. TBR – $5,300 – This is Ortiz’s best split, with a 212 wRC+ and .415 ISO against RHP at home. TBR SP Andriese has been solid lately, but the Red Sox are the #1 team against RHP and at home.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE vs. MIN – $4,200 – Cleveland is back at home, where they all hit much better than on the road. Napoli, who has a 128 wRC+ and .262 ISO vs. LHP at home, has seen his price drop and is in a great spot against MIN SP Santiago, who’s been giving up 38% hard contact over the last 30 days.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL at MIL – $5,000 – Carpenter is fully back to top strength and has a 209 expected power over his last five games to go with his 176 wRC+/.355 ISO against RHP on the road.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET vs. CHW – $5,400 – Everyone is in play for the Tigers against CHW SP Shields, who has a 5.87 SIERA over the last 30 days and has given up 43% hard contact over the same. Cabrera leads the Tigers against RHP at home with a 195 wRC+, .321 ISO and 43% hard contact in split.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS at PHI – $4,100 – Love the WAS stack against PHI SP Thompson tonight, and Werth, while not enjoying his best split against RHP, should still be batting second. He hit two home runs against RHP last week in good spots.
Yulieski Gurriel (3B) – HOU vs. OAK – $2,400 – The Cuban rookie is up, and while he hasn’t hit a home run yet, he has two doubles and his expected power is registering at an elite 280 since his call up. OAK SP Manaea struggles against RH bats, especially away from spacious Oakland, with a 2.36 HR/9 IP given up.
Scooter Gennett (2B) – MIL vs. STL – $2,800 – Way too inexpensive for Gennett, who hits RHP at home at a 147 wRC+. STL SP Carlos Martinez has not been pitching well over the last 30 days (4.53 SIERA, 5.8 swinging strike rate) and gives up 5.17 xFIP to LH bats on the road, with a poor 2.6% K-BB differential.
Scott Schebler (OF) – CIN at LAA – $2,900 – Three home runs in Arizona helped his wRC+ away from Cincinnati, and his expected power is up to 113 now with a hard contact rating of 37% over the last two weeks. Matt Shoemaker is good at home, but spikes up to 3.72 xFIP against LH at home with a 1.30 HR/9 IP.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS at PHI – $3,900 – Same as Werth, in a great spot, with the Nationals carrying a 5.3 run implied total, even if it’s not Ramos’ best split. PHI SP Thompson has a 5.92 SIERA over his last 30 days.
Travis Shaw (1B/3B) – BOS vs. TBR – $3,400 – Shaw’s been in a slump (2-16 last four games) but his BABIP has been low (.180) and his expected power is a healthy 158 and should be batting sixth with a 5.3 implied run total at home and a 110 wRC+ against RHP at home tonight.
Tyler Collins (OF) – DET vs. CHW – $2,900 – If he plays, he’s in a great spot amidst all the goodness against CHW SP Shields, with the Tigers hauling a massive six run implied total. Collins is decent enough in split to take advantage, with a 112 wRC+ and .213 ISO.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.