These targets will focus on the seven-game slate tonight, which features the decision to Max or not to Max, which gas can pitcher(s) to target hitters with and can we trust the Toronto Blue Jays? Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Max Scherzer – WAS vs. BAL – $11,600 – I am To Max tonight. It looked like there were going to be some other options to take me off of Max tonight, but his strikeout potential here, at home, against the Orioles, was too much to pass on as it turns out. The Orioles love to take on opposing RHP with their own RH bats, it’s the favorite split. However, that Scherzer’s best split, too, with a crushing 35.4 net K minus BB rate and a 2.46 xFIP as well. Scherzer’s HR numbers have come down over the last 30 days, too, to a 0.84 HR/9 IP rate. It’ll be tested by the Orioles, but bear in mind that, in addition to Max’s top splits, BAL strikes out 21.8% against RHP and 23.1% on the road. Oh, and Ubaldo Jimenez will likely bat at least once to help matters.
James Paxton – SEA at CHW – $9,700 – Paxton has been surprising over the last 30 days, with a 22% K rate, 3.63 SIERA and a 3.28 xFIP split against RH bats over the whole season. He goes into Chicago, where the White Sox strike out 20.5% of the time, and 22.4% against LHP. Paxson’s effectiveness against RH bats, where his net K-BB rate is 18.8%, and the fact that Chicago is likely to roll out seven RH bats tonight. Paxton is a favorite tonight, but the total is 9.5, with the White Sox implied to score 4.4 runs. I think that’s too high given the splits, Paxton’s performance and the fact that US Cellular is only 16th in run rating this season and tied for tops in strikeouts.
Tom Koehler – MIA vs. KCR – $7,100 – The bold look of Tommy Koehler, who is nobody’s dominant pitcher but, on this slate, under $8K, he’s a very reasonable place to land. Obviously, you’d love to get him at $6K rather than $7k, but the 3x potential is still here, as he has delivered in four of his last six starts, including a 28+ DK point gem in Marlins Park against the Giants. Koehler’s last 30 days have him pretty solid: 3.88 SIERA, 21% K rate against only 5% BB and a shocking 13.3% swinging strike rate. He limits the damage and is in the cavern of Marlins Park, the best pitching venue of the night. The Royals have been meager at the plate away, against RHP and over the last 7 days, so they won’t be the type of team to blow the lid off of Koehler’s start.
Adam Wainwright – STL vs. NYM – $6,900 – Waino has struggled a little over his last few starts, including a home wreck against the Braves. However, in the four home starts before that one, he was fantastic, scoring 24.35, 32.15, 36.25 and 21.30. His home xFIP this season has been 3.66 and his K-BB rate is 13.7. The Mets whiff at a 22% rate on the road and against RHP this season.
Jake Lamb (3B) – ARZ vs. ATL – $4,700 – Lamb goes against one of the worst pitchers on the slate over the last 30 days in Matt Wisler, and Lamb has 159 wRC+/.420 wOBA/.352 ISO at home against RHP this season. Hope you read this space yesterday when I wrote he was getting back on track after having great hard hit metrics even though he was getting out. Two doubles Tuesday, home run last night — he’s back on at this point.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. LAA – $5,100 – Let down last night, as the Jays are wont to do at times, but LAA SP Weaver is considerably worse than Matt Shoemaker. Weaver, over the last 30 days, has a 6.46 SIERA, 6.7% K-rate and giving up 2.36 HR/9 IP….and he’s terrible away from home, with a 6.41 xFIP against LH bats, 6.37 against RH bats.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA at TOR – $4,700 – TOR SP Happ is a good play tonight, but Mike Trout as a +1 out there would make sense as he puts up numbers in any split, but in the Rogers Centre, where Happ’s HR rate goes up against RH bats, makes him an interesting play.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS vs. BAL – $4,000 – Ramos hits well at home, even against RHP, with a 131 wRC+ and .372 wOBA in split. BAL SP is Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 16% walk rate over the last 30 days and a 4.55 SIERA overall.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL vs. NYM – $4,700 – Carp looks back, as his expected power has climbed over 150 over the past week (100 is average) and he regularly mashes RHP, with a 148 WRC+ and .232 ISO against RHP at home.
Ian Desmond (OF) – TEX vs. CLE – $4,000 – CLE SP Tomlin isn’t a gas can, per se, but he does have problems with the long ball against RH bats, with a 2.02 HR/9 IP rate this season. Desmond is usually batting second and represents the entirety of the Rangers lineup who can go deep on Tomlin tonight.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR vs. LAA – $5,000 – Same great matchup against LAA SP Weaver, Edwin has a 156/ wRC+/.404 wOBA and .289 ISO against RHP at home this season.
*Robinson Cano (2B) – SEA at CHW – $5,200 * – Cano really performs well away against RHP, where his split is 180 wRC+ and a .289 ISO. Tonight, he’s in a park upgrade for him against CHW SP Ranaudo, who has been awful in his short time in the league. Ranaudo has a 7.05 xFIP against LH bats and a net zero K-BB%. He’s not good, and Cano should take advantage.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE at TEX – $3,400 – TEX SP Hamels is a solid pitcher this season, for sure, but he has a weak spot in pitching at home, where he’s giving up a 1.43 HR/9 IP rate and a 4.20 xFIP overall. Napoli is a nice /.242 ISO against LHP on the road, but gets a neutral move here going to Texas from Cleveland.
Seth Smith (OF) – SEA at CHW – $3,600 – Just a couple more Mariners tonight, who have that great matchup against CHW SP Ranaudo. Smith should be batting second and has a 117 wRC+ against RHP this season.
Jett Bandy (CATCH) – LAA at TOR – $2,600 – Another possible one off from the Angels, Jett has a 200 wRC+ and .273 ISO against LHP on the road.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS vs. BAL – $3,800 – Batting second in this game against BAL SP Jimenez and a 5.1 implied run total is enough to consider Werth, especially in stack, for $3.8K.
Adam Lind (1B) – SEA at CHW – $3,300 – Last Mariner here, Lind is at a great price here and has an always potent bat against RHP, with a career total of 126 wRC+ against RHP and gets this spot, with the Mariners carrying a 5.1 implied run total on the road here.
Josh Bell (OF) – PIT at MIL – $2,900 – Tons of power potential if he’s in the lineup today against MIL SP Peralta who gives up 1.73 HR/9 IP to LH bats. Bell has 14 at-bats on the road against RHP this season, and he has five singles, a double and a home run.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.