These targets will focus on the ten-game slate tonight, which features a top heavy pitching selection, quite a few gas cans to target and some surprisingly high run totals for some teams we’re not accustomed to seeing. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. KCR – $12,600 – Paying up for a stud brings you here, with Fernandez’s lights out 36.6% K rate and 2.32 SIERA at home this season. KCR is third worst in wRC+ against RHP this season and their projected lineup today has seven RH bats against Fernandez, who has shredded RH bats for a 1.58 xFIP this season.
Yu Darvish – TEX at CIN – $12,000 – All about K-upside here, as the Reds will likely have five position players plus the pitcher with over 20% Ks and only three guys in the lineup that scratch 100 wRC+ against RHP at home, even in the Great American Ballpark. Over his last 30 days, Darvish has a 2.53 SIERA/28.7% K rate/12.4% swinging strike rate. Against LH bats, he’s at 2.61 xFIP for the season.
Matt Shoemaker – LAA at TOR – $7,900 – The values tonight are much weaker than Tuesday, so we’re shooting for strikeout upside with Shoemaker, who does carry an 11% swinging strike rate over his last five starts. Toronto has been very accommodating over the last seven days, with a 28.5% whiff rate. They’re dangerous, but it can be balanced by the Ks Shoemaker can rack up before he has to go.
Dillon Gee – KCR at MIA – $5,100 – If you’re looking to go lower, you’ll have to dispense with K upside and just try to get through six/seven innings pitched. The Marlins, over the last seven days, have been a miserable 71 wRC+, and don’t have the game changing bat power of Giancarlo Stanton. They won’t whiff much, but they don’t hit with authority either, with a .110 ISO over the same span. Gee’s main problem is the long ball, and the spacious Marlins Park will help.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS vs. BAL – $4,000 – Ramos mashes LHP in WAS, to the tune of a 187 wRC+ and a massive .382 ISO. He faces BAL SP Wade Miley, who has given up 1.64 HR/9 IP to RH batters this season and the Nationals have a 4.8 implied run total tonight.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. LAA – $4,400 – Very inexpensive access to Donaldson, who has a 161 wRC+ and .311 ISO at home against RHP this season, and the Jays have a 4.8 run implied total.
Freddie Freeman (1B) – ATL at ARZ – $5,200 – Maybe people will see the price on Freeman against Zack Greinke and pass, despite Freeman’s 181 wRC+ and .348 ISO against RHP on the road and that he’s in Chase Field today. Sure, he’s got bad BvP history against Greinke (2-15), but Greinke is in his own house of horrors in ARZ tonight, where he’s given up a 4.72 xFIP against LH bats this season and has a 2.45 HR/9 IP rate over his last three starts.
Jake Lamb (3B) – ARZ vs. ATL – $3,900 – Two doubles last night are beginning to reverse the bad fortune the hard contact LH bat Lamb had been enduring. He has a sensational 155 wRC+/.339 ISO at home against RHP and ATL SP Teheran has a 5.58 xFIP against LH bats this season.
Aaron Altherr (OF) – PHI at CHW – $4,600 – The worst starter of the night is James Shields, who has a 6.42 SIERA, 8.6% K-rate, -1.7% K-BB rate and xFIPs over 5 against both LH and RH bats. Altherr has made 40% hard contact over the last two weeks and has a solid .250 ISO against RHP on the road. The park is excellent, the implied run total for PHI is 4.7 and Altherr is listed here to represent all the Phillies bats against Shields tonight.
Brian Dozier (2B) – MIN vs. DET – $5,400 – Tourney only as the price is very high, but this is Dozier’s main split, with a career 142 wRC+ against LHP at home, and he should be leading off for MIN. For DET SP Boyd, this is his worst split, with a career 6.03 xFIP against RH bats on the road.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF) – MIN vs. DET – $4,100 – Sano is not so bad himself, with a 136 wRC+ at home against LHP and a 45% hard contact rate against LHP overall.
Brad Miller (SS) – TBR vs. BOS – $3,900 – Cleanup hitter with a 144 wRC+ and .348 ISO against RHP at home. BOS SP Porcello is solid, but has a 3.93 xFIP against LH bats this season.
Melky Cabrera (OF) – CHW vs. PHI – $2,900 – Great cash game play against RHP Eickhoff, who gives up 43% hard contact and a 4.96 xFIP against LH bats on the road. Melky is solid in split, too, with a 121 wRC+ in the middle of the White Sox order.
Justin Upton (OF) – DET at MIN – $2,900 – Tourney play here as a part of a Tigers stack against MIN SP Duffey, who has a 2.26 HR/9 IP rate against RH bats this season and a 4.62 xFIP overall.
Robbie Grossman (OF) – MIN vs. DET – $3,700 – If he’s in the lineup, you have to like Grossman against DET LHP Boyd. Against LHP at home, Grossman has a 191 wRC+ and .456 wOBA and has been batting second between other LHP bashers Dozier and Sano.
Hyun-Soo Kim (OF) – BAL at WAS – $2,900 – Another nice cash game play, batting second against a priced down BAL unit against WAS SP Roark, who has a 5.28 SIERA over his last 30 days and a 4.81 xFIP to LH bats. Kim has solid stats in split here, with a 144 wRC+ and .389 wOBA.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – TEX at CIN – $3,500 – Should be batting second in Great American Ballpark against an inexperienced CIN SP Adelman, who has a 6.67 SIERA and a 6.20 xFIP against LH bats, with a 2.45 HR/9 IP as well.
Andrew Benintendi (OF) – BOS at TBR – $2,400 – Benintendi sits in the enviable position of wrapping around and being a sort of leadoff guy as the lineup turns in the juggernaut BOS offense. He’s hitting 135 wRC+/.379 wOBA/.212 ISO against RHP on the road and TBR SP Andriese has been averaging 3.43 HR/9 IP over the last month.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.