Tonight’s targets will focus on the eight-game slate, so let’s dive right in. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jon Lester – CHC at SDP – $12,500 – Lester has maybe the most solid numbers on the slate over the last 30 days, with a third best SIERA of 3.43, #1 K-rate of 28.9% and fifth best 10.6% swinging strike rate tonight. He’s also tops against LH bats (2.82 xFIP) and holds the line fine against RH bats with a 24% K rate and 3.77 xFIP. He’s going against the Padres, who suddenly have a lot of LH bats and they whiff a lot, with at least six of the starters, not including the pitcher, over 20% K rate against LHP and three are well over 30%. I’m not paying up this high for SP tonight, but if I were, I’d be leaning on Lester.
Jameson Taillon – PIT vs. HOU – $9,100 – This is more my comfort zone tonight, with Taillon taking on the swing and miss Astros, who lose the DH tonight and suffer a huge downgrade from Camden Yards, where they erupted over the weekend. Taillon is tops in slate SIERA over the last 30 days, with a 3.26 mark and 6th in K rate with 22.2%. He’s solid against LH, with a 3.44 xFIP for the season and 2.93 xFIP against RH bats.
Andrew Triggs – OAK vs. CLE – $4,000 – Triggs is slowly but surely stretching out in an injured Oakland rotation. He’s been good, too, scoring 2x and over 3x in his last starts. Now he gets Cleveland, but before you get too frightened, considering their offensive display in their recent homestand, know that they are very different away from Cleveland. They are 22nd as a team in wRC+ on the road and strike out over 22% of the time. Mike Napoli and Jose Ramirez are two of the most impacted, as their wRC+ careen well under 100 away from home. Meanwhile, Triggs has the fifth best SIERA over the last 30 days on the slate, and may be very underowned due to recency bias.
Zack Godley – ARZ vs. ATL – $5,500 – Godley is pretty average, playing right in the middle of our last 30 days metrics on this slate, expect for being third highest in swinging strike rate (11.6). This is about his price ($5.5K) and his opponent, the Atlanta Braves who are last against RHP and last on the road in wRC+, and only Freddie Freeman over the last 14 days, has a wRC+ that is over 100 in split here. Goldey scored 20+ DK points his last time out at home against the Mets, and the Braves profile much less effective than even the Mets.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS at BAL – $5,400 – The hard contact is back, with a 153 rating over his last week (100 is average) and 47% hard contact over his last two weeks. His price is up, too, but that’s not a bad thing since folks may not pay up for Harper considering his “off” season. BAL SP Bundy has been good, but this is a bad matchup for him in a hitter’s park tonight.
Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC at SDP – $5,300 – SDP SP Jackson is one of the tastiest targets tonight, with over 5+ SIERA and xFIP in every meaningful split. Rizzo, on the road against RHP, has a 176 wRC+ and .342 ISO in that split.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. WAS – $4,800 – WAS SP Strasburg has been scratched and it’s A.J. Cole (RHP) in to replace him. Tough assignment, as the Orioles are super tough at home against RHP and second against RHP in terms of wRC+. Trumbo, especially, with a 164 wRC+ and .335 ISO against RHP in Camden Yards.
Jake Lamb (3B) – ARZ vs. ATL – $4,300 – His price has fallen and there will likely be many there tonight to pick it up. Lamb has an incredible 159 wRC+ with a .344 ISO at home against RHP and his opponent is ATL SP Foltynewicz, who has a 5.21 xFIP against LH bats and 1.69 HR/9 IP against them as well.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL vs. WAS – $4,500 – He’ll likely be more owned due to price, position and popularity, but Machado deserves mention here as well with a home vs. RHP split of 151 wRC+ and .306 ISO, while batting third.
Gregory Polanco (OF) – PIT vs. HOU – $4,900 – Solid matchup for PIT, as they are seventh best at home in wRC+ for the season. Polanco has a 142 wRC+ here in split, and should be batting third against HOU SP Fister, who is second worst at swinging strike rate on the slate over the last 30 days (6.0%) and carries a 5.32 xFIP with a 1.64 HR/9 IP against LH bats this season.
Didi Gregorius (SS) – NYY at SEA – $4,300 – Really hard to put Didi in a Studs category, but he’s in a great spot, even at his $4.3K price tag. SEA SP Martin is the worst on the slate tonight, with a 7.51 xFIP against LH bats this season. Gregorius has a 42% hard hit rate over his last two weeks and has been batting fourth.
Ben Zobrist (2B/OF) – CHC at SDP – $4,900 – Same great matchup as Rizzo above against Edwin Jackson, and Zobrist has been good against RHP on the road as well, with a 146 wRC+ split.
Hyun-Soo Kim (OF) – BAL vs. WAS – $3,600 – Should be batting second against WAS emergency starter A.J. Cole, and Kim has a 140 wRC+ with less than 10% K-rate at home against RHP, and since he usually bats second, he’ll be in the middle of quite a bit tonight.
Matt Joyce (OF) – PIT vs. HOU – $3,800 – Make sure he’s in the lineup, but if he is you’ll want some Joyce against Fister, as I described above in Polanco’s space. In this split, Joyce has a 194 wRC+, .460 wOBA and .366 ISO.
Sandy Leon (CATCH) – BOS at TBR – $3,300 – Tampa isn’t a great venue, but Leon has a 193 expected power over the last seven games (100 is average) and he has a 229 wRC/.440 ISO in 54 PAs against LHP on the road this season. TBR SP Snell has a 4.42 xFIP against RH bats this season.
Mike Zunino (CATCH) – SEA vs. NYY – $2,900 – Need to go cheaper than Leon at catcher, then if Zunino’s in the lineup against RHP Pineda (1.63 HR/9 IP to RH bats), you may just want to fire him up. Zunino has only 32 PAs against RHP at home this season, but he’s delivered with a 239 wRC+ and .615 ISO, with a home run every 6 PAs.
Seth Smith (OF) – SEA vs. NYY – $3,000 – A more conventional play in this matchup could be Smith, who has a solid 144 wRC+/.200 ISO in split and has been batting second against RHP at home lately.
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) – NYY at SEA – $3,900 – He’s been average, but carries a 107 wRC+ on the road against RHP and gets a big boost against SEA SP Martin tonight, with his 4.1% swinging strike rate and 7.51 xFIP against LH bats.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.