Tonight’s targets will focus on the nine-game slate, which features some challenging pitching decisions to go with a game at Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Drew Smyly – TB vs. SD – $9,000 – The Padres are listed as a top 5 team against LHP this season, but they lost two big reasons for that this season with the trades of Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton, Jr, who both had wRC+ above 125 against LHP this season. They’ve been replaced by LH bats Ryan Schimpf (79 wRC+), Alex Dickerson (104) and Travis Jankowski (-8). Also, Tropicana Field is below average for RH bats in all phases. Meanwhile, Smyly has been solid (3.97 SIERA, 24% K-rate), but is better at home, where his K-rate jumps to 28.3%.
Robbie Ray – ARI vs. NYM – $9,600 – Not ideal to get Ray at home, where the park plays above average for hitters, but he’s the low man in SIERA L30, with a 2.67 SIERA and 32.5% K-Rate. He just took care of these Mets for nearly 22 DK points on 8/10, though some might consider that reason not to roster him. The Mets are last in wRC+ over the last 14 days and have struck out over 20% of the time. The Ks are the key, however, and Ray’s rate raises his floor to 20 DK points, even if he gives up some runs tonight.
Ryan Vogelsong – PIT at SF – $4,200 – Tough sledding for pitching on this slate, so why not a revenge game for ex-Giant Vogelsong, who has quietly been solid the last two starts, with DK totals of 21.10 in both starts. His SIERA for his L30 days is 3.03 and he’s spun a strong 25% K-rate over that span as well. It’ll be put to the test against the Giants, but he’s been alright in SF over his career and the total isn’t expected to be high. At $4.2K, he won’t need much to return value, and with only Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt being significantly higher that 100 wRC+ in the lineup, it should keep things less impactful and allow a fair total to Vogelsong’s DK point line.
David Phelps – MIA at CIN – $4,000 – Pitching at the Great American Ballpark is far from safe, but Phelps has turned good work, with a 3.19 SIERA, 11.03 K/9 rate and a 30% K-rate. The Reds, while having a couple of guys that can hurt, like Adam Duvall, are still third worst against LHP this season, with only Duvall, Votto and Suarez over 100 in wRC+. Also, not much needed to make value at $4,000, and the Reds 23.2% K-rate against LHP will help that floor.
Devon Travis (2B) – TOR at NYY – $4,700 – Travis is leading off for Toronto, which means that, since he’s visiting, he has a great shot at five at-bats. Good thing, since he’s been scorching RHP on the road this season, with a 213 wRC+ and a matchup with Chad Green, who has gone more than 4.1IP once this season, in San Diego.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. WAS – $4,700 – Getting a Max Scherzer led discount here for CarGo, at home against a RHP, where he has a 181 wRC+ in split and .340 ISO. More detail in the Values area on Scherzer against LH bats on the road.
Robinson Cano (2B) – SEA at LAA – $4,900 – Great splits on the road against RHP, with a 183 wRC+ and .319 ISO in that split against LAA SP Nolasco, who has a 4.89 SIERA over his last five starts and a 6.7% swinging strike rate.
Danny Valencia (3B) – OAK at TEX – $4,300 – TEX SP Perez does struggle against RH bats, where his K-rate drops below 10% and has a net zero K-BB % rate. Valencia has four home runs in 18 AB against LHP on the road this season and Perez gives up 1.17 per 9 IP, his highest HR split.
Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX vs. OAK – $5,000 -The head of the vs. LHP brigade for the Rangers, Beltre has a 179 wRC+ against lefties at home, with a .445 wOBA in split as well. OAK SP Detweiler has a career 4.78 xFIP against RH bats, with a tiny 5% K-BB rate.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS at COL – $5,400 – Not sure many folks want to pay this much for Werth, but he’s excellent in this split, with a 193 wRC+ and .293 ISO and the Nationals leading the way tonight with an implied 6.3 run total.
Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA at LAA – $4,300 – Already touched on Nolasco, but let’s add this, that he’s given up 1.77 HR/9 IP to RH bats this season and Cruz has a healthy 227 expected power over his last five games.
Marcell Ozuna (OF) MIA at CIN – $3,900 – Perfect time to sneak in with Marlins bats against LHP Finnegan, now that Giancarlo Stanton is out for the season. Ozuna doesn’t have the same eye-popping wRC+ he has at home against LHP (215), but he still offers a 121 and with an excellent 54% hard contact rate in split as well.
David Dahl (OF) – COL vs. WAS – $3,000 – Sure, it’s Scherzer, but it’s Coors and Max hasn’t pitched light-out in COL in his four starts there. Dahl has a nice 159 wRC+ at home vs. RHP and with Scherzer 1.90 HR/9 IP away vs. LH bats, Dahl is an extreme bargain down here at $3K in Coors.
Gary Sanchez (CATCH) – NYY vs. TOR– $2,900 – Has some pop (118 expected power over last week, 100 is average) and some good stats against RHP at home over his last 20 AB (135 wRC+)
Jake Smolinski (OF) – OAK at TEX – $3,700 – OAK has the RH bats to give TEX SP Perez problems, and Smolinski has been batting second against LHP, with a 145 wRC+.
Justin Upton (OF) – DET vs. KC – $2,300 – Really low price in a split that he’s been alright in, with just over 100 wRC+ and .325 wOBA. DET is also carrying an implied 5 run scoring total tonight against KCR SP Kennedy. Also, just $200 more is Tyler Collins, who’s in a good spot here as well.
Chris Heisey (OF) – WAS at COL – $3,600 – A lower cost National in this game, potentially, would be Heisey, who has a 125 wRC+ and .450 ISO against LHP on the road this season.
Tyler Austin (OF) – NYY vs. TOR – $2,600 – With Aaron Judge ($3,100) and interesting rookie duo — watch if they are in the lineup against the struggling Dickey (5.08 SIERA over last five starts) and in a 9.5 run total.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.