As I always do on Sunday, I cover the entire slate of games taking place today. Let’s get you ready for today, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Chris Sale – CHW vs. MIA – $12,000 – If you’ve read my articles before, I’m usually not a big fan of paying over $12,000 for a starting pitcher unless I really like the matchup. This afternoon is one of those matchups that I’m in favor of. The Marlins are most likely going to be without Gincarlo Stanton, removing a huge bat from their lineup and making it even easier for Sale. Coming into today against lefties, the Marlins own a .329 wOBA with a 21.6 K%. Even though Sale, at least to the expectations we have, is generating less strikeouts than usual, he’s still inducing plenty of swings and misses. Over his last five games, Sale has grabbed at least 10 in four of his last five starts. Sale has been his best on the road this season, owning a 2.28 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in 13 starts. He should be a fine play today.
Rick Porcello – BOS vs. ARZ – $11,400 – “Pretty Ricky” has been about as consistent as a pitcher that you could ask for lately. Since July 9th, Porcello has gone six straight starts of at least 20 FPPG with a 33:5 K:BB ratio. Porcello has been his best at home, where he’s somehow only allowed five of his 17 home runs this season. The Diamondbacks are a better hitting team than I think people want to give them credit for, but Porcello is in such a groove that I think he’s able to handle this club. Since the All-Star break, the D-Backs own a .311 wOBA with a .306 OBP and a 22.7 K%.
Tyler Chatwood – COL vs. PHI – $8,900 -We have a lot of value on this slate today and Chatwood is one of my favorites. He gets the Phillies away from Coors Field today, which is always an advantage for him. Since the All-Star Break, the Phillies own a .297 woBA with a .308 OBP, a .397 SLG and a 21.9 K%. Chatwood isn’t a huge strikeout guy, owning a 6.1 K/9 on the road, but his ability to keep the ball in the yard and his overall effectiveness to get outs, allows him to grab scores in the low 20s. Chatwood has a 1.30 ERA on the road this season while allowing just one home run in nine road starts.
Tom Koehler – MIA vs. CHW – $8,600 -It’s very possible you haven’t heard about the solid stretch of games that Koehler is on right now. Over his last four starts, Koehler is averaging 26 FPPG with a 23:6 K:BB ratio. Today he takes on the White Sox. Koehler has been great at home and faces a White Sox team that does not hit well on the road. The White Sox own a .299 wOBA with a .306 OBP and a .383 SLG with a K% of 20. At just $8,600 Koehler should be a nice sneaky play.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE vs. LAA – $5,100 – Napoli has been on a complete tear as of late, averaging 13.2 FPPG over his last ten games. During that span, Napoli has gone 15-39 with three doubles, four home runs, nine RBIs, and 10 runs scored. He faces Jered Weaver with a .422 wOBA and .615 SLG allowed to right-handed batters on the road.
Wil Myers (1B) – SDP vs. NYM – $4,700 – Myers has crushed left-handed pitching all season, so a matchup against Steven Matz could bring us more of the same. Matz hasn’t been terrible against righties at home, but he has allowed nine of his 12 home runs in those situations. Also in a bit of small sample size, Matz is allowing a .345 wOBA to opposing hitters since the ASB, compared to the .297 in the first half. On the road, Myers owns a .437 wOBA against lefties with a .614 SLG and a .420 OBP.
*Buster Posey (CATCH)- SFG vs SEA – $4,400 * – Posey seems as though he’s never over priced and is always a candidate to grab some solid production on any given day. Averaging 7.9 FPPG, Posey owns a .400 wOBA against left-handed pitching at AT&T Park with a .589 SLG and a .970 OPS. He takes on Wade Miley, who is allowing a .348 wOBA to righties with 16 of his 19 home runs and a .473 SLG.
*Chris Carter (1B) – MIL vs. CIN – $4,700 * – Ah yes, Chris Cater, at home against a pitcher who is allowing over two home runs per nine innings. Carter faces Cody Reed, who has allowed 11 home runs this season, with 10 of those to righties and six of them on the road. Oh, let’s not forget to mention the .401 wOBA and .576 SLG to righties either. Carter continues to lead the league with 20 home runs at home and is in a great spot to make it 21.
Jake Lamb (3B) – ARZ vs. BOS – $4,400 – I’m certainly a fan of Porcello today, but if I were to pick someone from the Diamondbacks, it would certainly be Lamb. A constant power threat, Lamb does well on the road against righties, owning a .385 wOBA with a .559 SLG and a .918 OPS. While I mentioned that Porcello has done very well at keeping the ball in the park at Fenway, three of those five home runs have come against a left-handed batter. Porcello is allowing a .325 wOBA to lefties at Fenway this season.
Manny Machado (3B/SS) – BAL vs. SFG – $4,100 – I’m not usually all about taking hitters against Johnny Cueto at home, but he’s been a bit shaky as of late and Machado is on fire in his last 10. Cueto owns a .342 wOBA since the ASB with six home runs allowed (which ties what he allowed in 131.1 IP in the first half) and a .475 wOBA. Machado is averaging 11.7 FPPG in his last 10 games with a .366 wOBA against righties on the road this season.
Kris Bryant (OF/3B) – CHC vs STL – $5,100– Bryant always manages to find himself on my list for targets, even if he’s better on the road than he is at home. He faces Mike Leake tonight, who is allowing a .374 wOBA to righties on the road with a .522 SLG. Bryant has a .341 wOBA at home against righties with six home runs.
Marcell Ozuna (OF) – MIA vs. MIA – $3,300 – I like Sale today for obvious reasons, but you simply cannot deny how well Ozuna does against left-handed pitching, especially when it’s at home. At just $3,300, you can get a hitter that owns a .500 wOBA at home against lefties with a .816 SLG and a 1.208 OPS.
Starlin Castro (2B) – NYY vs. TBR – $3,500 – Jake Odorizzi has been rough on the road this season, so visiting Yankee Stadium certainly isn’t going to do him any favors. Against righties on the road, Castro owns a .367 wOBA with a .507 SLG. Casto has been his best at home against righties, owning a .370 wOBA with a .526 SLG with nine of his 14 home runs.
Michael Saunders (OF) – TOR vs. HOU – $3,500 – I actually like most of the Blue Jays today, as they should be able to tee off against Mike Fiers. Saunders is a nice value play, as he owns a .385 wOBA at home against righties with a .520 SLG.
Corey Dickerson (OF) – TBR vs. NYY – $3,100 – I don’t usually take Dickerson when he plays at Tropicana Field, but when he’s in a spot like Yankee Stadium, I can get down with that. Dickerson has a .367 wOBA on the road against righties with a .585 SLG with 11 of his 15 home runs. He faces Luis Severino, who throws some electric stuff, but hasn’t figured out how to minimize the damage.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.