Today’s targets will focus on the four-game slate tonight, so we’ll pare down our selections to fit the slate, but there are still some interesting offensive situations to look at and a couple of pitchers that stand out. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Corey Kluber – CLE vs. LAA – $11,000 – The K upside isn’t really there for the Klubot tonight against LAA, but he’s been really good, with a 28.4% K-rate and 14.5% swinging strike rate over his last 30 days. The Angels don’t have the lefty bats that can attack the slight weakness that Kluber has against them. He’ll probably get to face six or seven righty bats tonight, which gives him a very high floor tonight.
Eduardo Rodriguez – BOS vs. NYY – $5,200 – Folks may look at the nine runs the Yankees scored last night and figure that they bested BOS LHP Pomeranz, but ’twas the bullpen they exploited and they only managed six hits in 5.1 innings and one run while Pomeranz struck out five over that span. That similar output would put Rodriguez at 15-16 DK points, a realistic target considering his 22% K-rate and 10.6 swinging strike rate over his last month of pitching. Only Didi Gregorius has a wRC+ above 100 in this split, which is why they didn’t really get anything going against Pomeranz, either.
Jason Kipnis (2B) – CLE vs. LAA – $5,400 – The Indians are the top stack on the slate, and they are priced like it. All the Indians bats in prime spots are $4.7K or higher, including Kipnis, who has a 159 wRC+ and faces LAA SP Chacin, who has a 4.8 xFIP with only 12.8% K rate against LH bats this season.
Stephen Piscotty (OF) – STL at CHC – $3,800 – Piscotty is the best Cardinal to target CHC SP Lester with, with Piscotty’s 145 wRC+ against LHP this season on the road. Lester does have a weakness against RH bats at home.
Jackie Bradley (OF) – BOS vs. NYY – $4,000 – The opposite of the Indians stack tonight are the Red Sox, who face Michael Pineda, but line up pretty well against the low SIERA, high hard contact Yankee RHP. They are priced very low due to Pineda’s prowess. Bradley is the best of these, with a 147 wRC+ and low 15% K rate against RHP at home.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL at CHC – $4,300 – Very reasonable price for a handedness agnostic, leadoff, hard contact monster, Carpenter does turn in a 121 wRC+ on the road against LHP this season.
Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC vs. STL – $5,200 – STL SP Martinez has had it rough lately, with a 4.99 SIERA and deflated 16% K rate. His walk rate jumps on the road against LH bats, and Rizzo has a 16% walk rate against RHP at home and a 155 wRC+ waiting if Martinez grooves one.
Tyler Naquin (OF) – CLE vs. LAA – $4,700 – Lower in the order so maybe more ignored at this elevated price tag, Naquin has a strong 208 wRC+ this season against RHP at home, and is on the lower end of the main Indians bats tonight.
Travis Shaw (3B) – BOS vs. NYY – $3,800 – Shaw, like Bradley, matches up well against RHP at home, with a 131 wRC+ and probable bump in the lineup if David Ortiz misses, as expected.
Carlos Santana (1B) – CLE vs. LAA – $5,000 – It’s possible that the Indians stack could be lesser owned due to the relative availability of the Red Sox stack. If so, having Santana in there would be ideal with his 132 wRC+ and tiny 13% K-rate against RHP and likely role near or at the top of the Indians lineup.
Sal Perez (CATCH) – KCR vs. CWS – $3,200 – Perez hits righties well at home, with a 136 wRC+ and CWS SP Gonzalez has been solid, but hittable, with only a 7.4% swinging strike rate and 35% hard contact rate over his last month.
Melky Cabrera (OF) – CWS at KCR – $3,400 – KCR SP Duffy is weaker at home, where his K-rate drops to 23%, his HR/9 IP rises to 1.47 and xFIP goes to 4.23 from his 2.79 on the road. The Melkman has a solid 17.8% K-rate on the road against LHP and a 155 wRC+ in that split as well.
Todd Frazier (3B) – CWS at KCR – $3,600 – Sames for the ToddFather, who strikes out a lot more than Melky (38.2%), but when he makes contact, it goes far, with a 169 wRC+ in split and .512 ISO.
Eric Hosmer (1B) – KCR vs. CWS – $3,700 – Only in a short slate like this will you see me offer up Mr. Grounder, Hosmer. However, he does fare well in this split, with a 143 wRC+ and 16% K-rate and CWS SP Gonzalez has a 5.12 xFIP against LH bats this season.
Tim Anderson (SS) – CWS at KCR – $2,900 – Way cheap leadoff target with KCR SP Duffy in a lesser spot and Anderson sporting a solid 111 wRC+ split in front of already recommended plays Cabrera and Frazier. Sneaky stack.
Kendrys Morales (1B) – KCR vs. CWS – $3,000 – Morales has a solid 112 wRC+ against RHP at home and only Ks 15% of the time in split, giving up a lot of opportunity to tack onto CWS Gonzalez’s 5.12 xFIP in split this season.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.