Did you fade the Astros/Yankees game yesterday, or just Carlos Correa specifically? How about Robby Cano? It’s an almost-to-the-weekend Thursday night slate we only have four games to pull targets from today so let’s either keep the roll going or get back on track tonight. Let’s do this!
Danny Salazar – CLE vs. BOS – $9,700 – He’s the most potentially dominant SP on the short slate tonight, rocking an 11+% swinging strike rate and holding most of his L/R splits around or below the danger line. The only split of caution is his home split, where his vs. wOBA is .329, which is in line considering Progressive Field’s #2 ranking in runs scored status in 2015.
Hector Santiago – LAA vs. TEX – $7,800 – Santiago’s very tough on lefties, of which the Rangers have some key bats in the lineup (Fielder, Choo, Odor), with a .606 OPS and .274 wOBA against left-handed bats last season. Angels are also at home as a slight (-116) favorite to win.
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Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC @ AZ – $5,200 – Arizona SP Rubby De La Rosa has a vs. LH split of a .364 wOBA and his K/9 sinks below 6.0 against lefties as well, culminating in an .832 OPS against left-handed hitters. The Cubs have some potent lefty bats, starting with Rizzo and his .385 split wOBA over the last two years against RHP.
Kyle Schwarber (C/OF) – CHC @ AZ – $4,500 – Schwarber is next to line up against Rubby, and Kyle had a .407 vs.RHP wOBA last season. The game total is a healthy nine runs, and the Cubs have an implied 4.8 runs of that number, led by Rizzo and Schwarber.
Ben Zobrist (2B/OF) – CHC @ AZ – $4,300 – One more Cubs stud to work against De La Rosa, Zobrist has a more modest, yet still potent .334 wOBA against RHP and will likely be batting third in the middle of all this projected offense.
Albert Pujols (1B) – LAA vs. TEX – $4,100 – Pujols has a healthy .359 wOBA combined split number working for him against LHP Derek Holland. Pujols’ salary has dropped to 4.1K, and while age may be a concern to some, Pujols maintained above average hard contact metrics and expected power metrics all season.
Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX @ LAA – $4,400 – Like Pujols, Beltre is still potent and has a solid vs. LHP matchup against Hector Santiago where the Rangers 3B can deploy his .379 wOBA against LHP.
Manny Machado (3B) – BAL vs. MIN – $4,900 – Twins SP Phil Hughes has a well-known reverse split, meaning he struggles against righties more than lefties despite being a RHP. So Machado is a top target given the offensive environment (Camden Yards being #2 for HRs last season) and Machado’s role as leadoff man.
Adam Jones (OF) – BAL vs. MIN – $4,500 – Jones has been batting second in Baltimore and is also poised to take advantage of Hughes’ strong reverse split. Jones also had a reverse split last season, driving a .340 wOBA against RHP as compared to .319 against LHP and hit better at home against both.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs. TEX – $5,400 – Of course, right? Trout carries an incredible .413 wOBA against lefties covering the past two seasons. He also had a 41% hard hit percentage against lefties in 2015.
David Peralta (OF) – AZ vs. CHC – $3,700 – Peralta hits RHP hard, notching a .402 wOBA against those pitchers last season, home and away. With the high run total and playing at home, where the ballpark was eighth in runs last season, and Peralta’s spot in the middle of the lineup behind Goldschmidt, it’s amazing he’s only $3.7K.
Jake Lamb (3B) – AZ vs. CHC – $3,400 – Same things apply to Lamb, just in lesser measure. Lamb’s hard hit metrics jump up to the high 30s when facing RHP and having a regular spot near the middle of the lineup against righties helps his cause.
Miguel Montero (CATCHER) – CHC @ AZ – $3,400 – The last of my lefty Cubs targets, Montero consistently held high power metrics last season and had his lowest soft contact numbers away vs. RHP (11%).
C.J. Cron (1B) – LAA vs. TEX – $3,200 – Cron has lefty Derek Holland tonight and will likely be batting behind Albert Pujols tonight, giving a strong combo punch given Cron’s above average power metrics in hard hit and expected power.
Ryan Rua (OF) – TEX @ LAA – $2,800 – A true gem here tonight below $3K, assuming Rua’s in the lineup tonight, which he should be. Rua’s expected power metrics are way above average (174 on a 100 scale) and faces Santaigo who gives up 55% fly balls to righties.