Greetings Gamers! We have a full 15-game slate tonight full of aces. To name a few, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale are toeing the rubber tonight. With that, let’s get right into today’s targets!
Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs MIA – $13,800 – Even though the Dodgers are -300 favorites to garner the victory, we can let other gamers take Kershaw tonight at this lofty price point. Over the last two seasons, the current Marlins hitters have the fourth highest weighted runs created plus (an advanced metric that neutralizes ballpark factors and creates a league-wide scoring baseline of 100) at 115 wRC+ meaning that they score 15% more efficiently than the average team against lefties. Additionally, they have a .339 wOBA over that same time frame which is also the fourth highest. This is just an uphill battle to see Kershaw realistically score enough fantasy points to make him worthwhile Tuesday at his premium price.
Dallas Keuchel – HOU at SEA – $10,300 – Next to the uber-elite three time Cy Young Award winning Clayton Kershaw, Keuchel looks like a downright bargain! Though the Mariners current collection of hitters have above average numbers against southpaws since the beginning of 2014, this season they have been below averaging with a 94 wRC+ and a .296 wOBA. Outside of Nelson Cruz, their best hitters (Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Adam Lind and Seth Smith) are all lefties. Their other top batter against southpaws is Franklin Gutierrez who is mostly a platoon player. The ball park shift to Safeco Field should also help limit any of Keuchel’s “mistake” pitchers since he is a heavy groundball pitcher and is not too susceptible to home runs.
Gerrit Cole – PIT at COL – $7,200 – This is a tournament only option; however, with so many gamers looking towards hitters in Coors Field, they rarely look to the pitchers. Cole has never pitched in Coors Field, and the current Rockies only have 33 at bats against them with a .121/.121/.242 slash line with a double, a home run and eight strikeouts. Since the beginning of last season, Cole has a very low 6.1% HR/FB ratio. Of course this is helped by having his home starts in the pitching friendly PNC Park, but he is a worthy contrarian option today.
“Through four starts this season, Hill has 29 strikeouts including two games with ten”
Rich Hill – OAK at DET – $7,700 – Maybe there really is something to his new arm slot and delivery. Through four starts this season, Hill has 29 strikeouts including two games with ten. Last season he had four starts with the Red Sox to end the year and he had ten strikeouts in three of those games and 36 overall. The Tigers are not a team I like to target; however, Tuesday is shaping up to be a tournament focused game slate, and we will want to make a stand somewhere to be different.
|Pitchers||Top 5's||Cheat Sheet|
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs PHI – $5,400 – With the game at Coors Field today and some spendy pitchers, along with the chance that a decent number of gamers will remember RHP Vincent Velasquez’ 16 strikeout performance against the Padres, we could see Harper in the 10-15% range in tournaments. In his last 670 at bats against right-handed pitching he has a .428 wOBA, a .290 ISO and a 175 wRC+ (meaning he creates 75% more runs than the average MLB hitter). Oh yeah, he is coming off a pinch hit home run appearance that sent Sunday’s game into extra innings… on a rest day.
Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC vs MIL – $4,900 – RHP Jimmy Nelson struggles with hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Since the beginning of last season he has allowed a .372 wOBA and a 33.3% hard contact rate. We have seen Rizzo with multiple home runs before, and while that is unlikely in any specific game, the upside is always lurking.
Miguel Sano – (OF) – MIN vs CLE – $4,300 – Sano has three home runs over his last eight games, and he has been outstanding against same-handed pitching with a .380 wOBA and a .240 ISO for his career in 260 at bats.
Daniel Murphy (2B) – WAS vs PHI – $4,100 – Murphy has been swinging a hot bat with the Nationals, and he has posted a .397 average and nine extra base hits in 63 at bats. He is averaging just shy of 10 DKPPG, and while it is hard to quantify fantasy scoring with hitters, it shows he is a solid option in cash game formats as he only has had two games this season with less than four fantasy points.
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD vs MIA – $4,100 – Once again, Seager is one of the better shortstop plays on the slate if we are looking to spend a little. During his short time in The Show, he has been very successful against right-handed pitching with a .380 wOBA and a .880 OPS. Tom Koehler is not someone to be afraid of, and Seager is a solid option in all formats.
Jason Heyward (OF) – CHC vs MIL – $4,400 – The Cubbies are back at home and they lead the league in runs scored, providing the perfect pivot to The Masses who will be marching towards the Coors Field game. Heyward should be nestled in in a prime spot at the top of the order in Chicago tonight, and he is an excellent contrarian option.
“Carpenter has been flashing upside with a career high 28 home runs last season and posting 16+ DKFP seven of his last fifteen games”
Matt Carpenter (3B) – STL at ARI – $4,500 – This is a nice park bump for Carpenter who has jumped out of his mid-April slump in a big way with back-to-back 16 and 17 DKFP games in San Diego on Sunday and yesterday in Arizona. Long known as a safe play, Carpenter has been flashing upside with a career high 28 home runs last season and posting 16+ DKFP seven of his last fifteen games.
Francisco Cervelli (CATCH) – PIT at COL – $4,300 – Hey, not bad… I made it seven recommendations without going to Coors Field. My guess is most gamers are going to look to punt the catcher position, so I do not mind spending a little in tournaments as Cervelli has been solid in righty/lefty matchups over his last 153 at bats with a .361 wOBA and an .827 OPS.
Adonis Garcia (3B) – ATL vs BOS – $3,100 – LHP David Price is not afraid to challenge hitters, so there is a good chance that Garcia will see some pitches to hit. That’s something that cannot always be said with this watered down Braves lineup that really only has Garcia and Freddie Freeman as hitters to worry about for opposing pitchers.
David Freese (3B) – PIT at COL – $3,800 – If Freese is hitting third, he will be one of the most popular third basemen of the day. He rakes against southpaws with a .352 wOBA and a .186 ISO over his last 215 at bats. The only worry is that manager Clint Hurdle has been rolling him out against right-handed pitching, where he struggles and actually gave him the day off the last time the Pirates faced a lefty.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA vs HOU – $2,500 – While I will be rolling with LHP Dallas Keuchel today, I do not mind looking to Gutierrez if he is hitting fifth for the Mariners at this discounted price point. He has been a lefty killer and over his last 123 at bats against opposite-handed pitchers, he has a tremendous .405 wOBA and a .268 ISO.
Corey Dickerson (OF) – TB vs BAL – $3,200 – This is just too cheap for Dickerson who has raked against righties with a .415 wOBA and a .290 ISO over his last 560 at bats.
Stephen Vogt (CATCH) – OAK at DET – $3,400 – I believe in Stephen Vogt who is in a fine matchup against RHP Mike Pelfrey, who somehow coaxed a two year $16M deal from the Motor City Tigers. Vogt should do well with his success against opposite-handed pitchers.
Chris Coghlan – (OF) – OAK at DET – $3,300 – Coghlan makes for a fine synergy play when paired with Vogt or as a pure punt option as he should be in the top half of the order today for the Athletics. He does carry a pinch hit risk; however, if you want to load up on the Pirates or top pitching one cannot be too choosy.
Mark Canha (1B/OF) – OAK at DET – $3,800 – Oh look, we have ourselves a discounted Oakland mini-stack! Just add Khris Davis – $3,400 for a little power-upside, and if the Coors Field game fizzles, the A’s stack will be looking great.