Happy Monday! There’s a fantastically fantastic 13-game slate, so let’s shake off whatever happened over the weekend (I won’t say anything), get our studs and values identified and try to get to winner’s circle tonight. There’s a Coors game tonight, but I’m limiting myself to two studs and two values for this article’s purpose, but feel free to stack away there. Let’s do this!
As always, ask any questions to @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Noah Syndergaard – NYM vs. CIN – $11,400 – The Reds are bottom five against RHP, and Syndergaard has a ridiculous 37%K/60% ground ball (GB) rate combo going right now. The projected total of 2.6 Reds runs tonight looks high given those numbers.
Madison Bumgarner – SFG vs. SD – $12,000 – I looked at many of the other top salaried starters, so as not to just list the two most expensive, but then I looked at MadBum’s history last season against this team and I couldn’t pass. 127 PAs, 21 hits, five walks, 42 strikeouts and a .434 OPS against him. He’s at home, too, where he posted 34.50, 46.05 and 30.10 DKFP against the Padres last season.
Ross Stripling – LAD vs. MIA – $5,600 – He won’t need much to make value at $5.6K, the 17 DKPPG he’s put up in two home starts this season will do. The Marlins are 7th worst in wRC against righties this season so far.
Jordan Zimmermann – DET vs. OAK – $8,200 – He’s not missing a lot of bats, which limits his upside, but he’s a fine cash game play here as a -167 favorite to win, the A’s being bottom half of the league away and against RHP and Zimmermmann only allowing 14% hard contact so far this season.
Nolan Arenado (3B) – COL vs. PIT – $5,200 – Arenado gets LHP Locke, who he has had success against, albeit in a small sample size (6-11, 1 HR, 2 2B). COL has a 6.1 projected run total tonight.
Andrew McCutchen (OF) – PIT @ COL – $5,100 – Cutch has above average expected power/hard hit metrics and a .375 wOBA vs. LHP, which goes well with the 5.6 expected run total for PIT in Coors tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – AZ vs. STL – $4,800 – Lefty vs. Goldy at home? Yes please, as he has a ridiculous .536 wOBA in that scenario dating back to last season.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR vs. CWS – $4,500 – The Blue Jays get Miguel Gonzalez today, as of this writing, and Gonzalez gives up the long ball often, 1.33 per 9 IP for his career. The Jays, at home, against Gonzalez is a tasty alternative to a Coors stack.
“The Jays, at home, against Gonzalez is a tasty alternative to a Coors stack”
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. CWS – $4,700 – Same as Bautista above, Donaldson has a 162 expected power rating to start this season (100 is average), good enough to take advantage of Gonzalez for sure.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ TB – $4,400 – A profound crusher of RHP (.420 wOBA), Davis also has success in a limited sample against Chris Archer (5-14, 2 2B, 2 HR) and has the double-home run upside with expected power of 280 (!).
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM vs. CIN – $4,000 – Grandy has a .386 wOBA vs. RHP and a 141 expected power rating, so the power upside is there against Raisel Iglesias, who gives up a home run per 9 IP.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR vs. CWS – $4,200 – The last of the Blue Jays stack, Encarnacion is rocking an above average power rating as well (118 on a 100 scale), and sits right behind Donaldson and Bautista in what could be a long night for Gonzalez.
John Jaso (1B) – PIT @ COL – $4,300 – Jaso has a strong .364 wOBA against RHP, bats first in the Pirates lineup and is in Coors with that 5.6 expected run total.
Ryan Raburn (OF) – COL vs. PIT – $4,000 – Raburn is continuing to clock LHP, with a .422 wOBA against them and has been batting a strong fifth in the Rockies lineup.
“. . . the Rangers have great hitting weather tonight and Nathan Eovaldi, who has a .349 wOBA against LH bats”
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX vs. NYY – $3,500 – Mazara continues to hit, with a .449 wOBA against RHP and is at home, where the Rangers have great hitting weather tonight and Nathan Eovaldi, who has a .349 wOBA against LH bats.
Kiké Hernandez (OF) – LAD vs. MIA – $2,900 – Hernandez has a 185/169 expected power/hard hit metric this season (100 is average), kills LHP (.544 wOBA) and gets homer donor Wei-Yen Chen (1.33 HR/9IP) in Dodger Stadium tonight.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (CATCH) – DET vs. OAK – $3,100 – Salty has been raking HRs, with a massive 338 expected power rating. This is the second season he’s shown this power and is at home against Graveman, who has a .319 wOBA against lefties.
Brandon Drury (2B/3B) – AZ vs. STL – $2,600 – Drury rakes LHP, with a.392 wOBA against southpaws and is at home with a 4.0 expected run total against Jaime Garcia.