Steven Matz – NYM at ATL – $8,700 – Matz and the Mets (how is that for alliteration?!) are -150 favorites in Atlanta, and the Braves are projected so plate just 3.4 runs. In all honesty there really is nobody on this lineup that frightens me against southpaws (though I will give a nod to Adonis Garcia who has been manning the cleanup spot since he does have power upside). Over the last two seasons, the current Braves batsmen have tallied the worst isolated power at .100 which is an astounding 20% below the next worst team. They also have struck out at a 20.8% clip in that same time frame against southpaws which is the eight highest in the league. Giddy up!
Jose Fernandez – MIA at SFG – $11,500 – While the Giants are not an offense to be taken lightly, particularly in an even numbered year, the Marlins are -135 favorites for the victory and the Baysiders project to score just 3.4 runs. With the batter pricing boosted in Coors Field tonight, I suspect more gamers will allocate their salary cap in that direction, leaving Fernandez on 30% or so on all rosters.
Michael Wacha – STL at SD – $8,900 – The Padres have an 84 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus, which is an advanced metric that neutralizes ball park factors and creates a league-wide scoring efficiency benchmark of 100) against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons which means they score 16% less than the league average in similar situations. Their .290 wOBA is the lowest in the league over this stretch, and their .126 ISO is the second worst. Their 20.9% strikeout rate is just icing on the cake.
Charlie Morton – PHI at MIL – $7,200 – This is not the safest play by any means; however, Morton has allowed just seven hits and six walks against thirteen strikeouts in his last two starts against Washington and San Diego giving up just one earned run. However, if we look at his first start in Cincinnati, we will see his potential downside with his negative two fantasy points.
Over the last two seasons, the current batsmen for the Brew Crew have accumulated a bottom five 90 wRC+ and .307 wOBA along with the fourth highest strikeout rate at 21.9% against right-handed pitchers. Over his last 52 starts, Morton has actually fared better against same-handed hitting with a .238/.307/.353 slash line and a .294 wOBA, while he has been more susceptible to hitters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate with a .266/.361/.412 slash line and a .340 wOBA. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher at 56.7% over this time frame with just a 22.0% flyball rate.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs SEA – $5,000 – For you BvP Truthers out there, Mike Trout has gone 23 for 65 against Felix Hernandez with four home runs, two triples and three doubles with a .354/.389/.646 slash line and a 1.035 OPS. Enjoy!
Lucas Duda (1B) – NYM at ATL – $4,000 – Duda has really been heating up with hits in five straight games including three home runs and two doubles during that stretch. He is a nice alternative to the Coors Field options and Paul Goldschmidt for his savings, and he will allow us to work in the higher priced hurlers.
Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC at CIN – $5,400 – This lofty price point is going to suppress Rizzo’s popularity tonight. While RHP Dan Straily does have solid numbers against lefties, Rizzo is capable of a multi-home run game at any time.
Scooter Gennett (2B) – MIL vs PHI – $4,000 – Scooter is someone we can look to in lefty/righty matchups, and while his price has been bumped over the last week by nearly 30%, he is still a solid option.
Manny Machado (3B) – BAL at KC – $4,800 – Machado tends to fare well in same-handed matchups, and over his last 754 at bats against righties, he has posted a .387 wOBA and a wicked .230 ISO. He has the ability to get multiple extra base hits and the Orioles are shaping up to be a sneaky mini-stack against RHP Kris Medlen.
Justin Turner (3B) – LAD at COL – $4,300 – JT is a nice way to gain entry into the fun at Coors Field at a reasonable price point. In his last 517 at bats against right-handed pitchers, he has tallied a .384 wOBA and a .880 OPS making him a solid option in all formats Saturday night.
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD at COL – $4,800 – It is my strategy tonight to either join the crowd with Seager or go for a complete punt at the shortstop position which will depend on a quick decision when lineups start to trickle in later this afternoon. It is going to take something really good to move me away from Seager, however.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA at SFG – $4,700 – Stanton’s power plays in any park, and he is an excellent option tonight against RHP Jake Peavy, who is definitely on the downward slope of his career path. In his last 700 at bats against right-handed pitching, Giancarlo has a .260 ISO and a .378 wOBA which are both super-duper star type figures.
Randal Grichuk (OF) – STL at SD – $3,100 – Grichuk has been outstanding against right-handed pitching with a .367 wOBA and a .260 ISO over his last 293 at bats in same-handed matchups. Look at his price and numbers and Stanton’s price and numbers… just saying.
David Peralta (OF) – AZ vs PIT – $3,600 – Peralta finally got his first home run of the season last night, so hopefully this is a sign of things to come. He is once again in a lefty/righty matchup and is a fine pivot away from the Coors Field game outfielders.
Michael Conforto (OF) – NYM at ATL – $3,600 – Conforto looks like he may permanently be in the three-hole which is a nice promotion from hitting sixth at the start of the season. I am expecting big things from him this season and think that we can look at all of the Mets outfielders tonight against RHP Jhoulys Chacin.
Matt Carpenter (3B) – MIA at SFG – $3,800 – Carpenter has been in a mini-slump; however, it has allowed his price to begin to drop. He is an excellent hitter at the top of the order for a very productive offense. Do not be dissuaded by his empty game log.
Justin Bour (1B) – MIA at SFG – $2,900 – Picking on Peavy is really a thing. Last season the Wild Bour popped all 23 of his home runs in lefty/righty matchups, and at this discounted price point, he will allow us to create lineups with the top pitchers or work in the Coors Field hitters.
Ben Paulsen (1B/OF) – COL vs LAD – Speaking of Coors Field, though it is not an easy matchup against RHP Kenta Maeda, Paulsen should be in the lineup for this lefty/righty matchup, and he is our deeply discounted ticket into Coors Field.
Matt Wieters (CATCH) – BAL at KC – $3,000 – This is just too cheap for a catcher who should be hitting in a favorable spot in a very productive offense.
Andres Blanco (2B/3B) – PHI at MIL – $2,800 – The key, of course, will be whether or not Blanco is in the lineup. However, this is a great play at his sub-$3k price point. Over his last 184 at bats against right-handed pitching, he has produced a .349 wOBA and a .200 ISO.