It’s travel day in the MLB, but there’s still a solid six-game slate tonight, so let’s get our studs and values and try to duplicate the magic of last night’s Brewers 10-run party. Let’s do this!
As always, ask any questions to @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Jake Arrieta – CHC @ CIN – $11,100 – The Reds haven’t been pushovers (.316 wOBA, 18% K-rate), but Arrieta is dominant, scoring a 2.43 SIERA, 11% swinging strike rate and 55% ground ball rate to start the season. The Cubs are -200 as a favorite today and the Reds have the lowest expected run total at 2.90.
Gerrit Cole – PIT @ SD – $10,300 – Isn’t much on the high side to go with, so we’ll take the next lowest expected run total in San Diego, which is a 3.0 run total. Cole is a solid, not dominant SP, but still gets a 10% swinging strike rate, and the Padres are registering a 27% K-rate vs. RHP so far this season.
Luis Severino – NYY vs. OAK – $7,400 – Besides the two games above, the next lowest game total is the right run OAK/NYY game, and the A’s have a .279 wOBA against RHP. Severino has a 3.38 SIERA and 56% ground ball rate, which will help limit the power bats at lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Rich Hill – OAK @ NYY – $7,000 – Being LHP also helps in Yankee Stadium and Hill is off to a good start, with a 12% swinging strike rate, 12 strikeouts/9 IP and a 50% ground ball rate, all leading to a 2.65 SIERA.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL vs. TOR – $4,900 – Davis’ expected power metrics are top five this season, and BAL has a strong 4.50 expected run total tonight. TOR SP Marco Estrada has a 45% fly ball rate so far this season, fitting in nicely with Davis’ 63% fly ball rate.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR @ BAL – $5,100 – Bautista has a strong wOBA against RHP (.398), and Toronto also carries a high run total into this matchup with Baltimore (4.50) against Chris Tillman, who serves up 44% fly balls to Bautista’s (178/152 on a 100 average scale) expected power/hard hit metrics.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET @ KC – $4,200 – JDM carries a hefty .378 wOBA vs. RHP into Kansas City and is a tournament alternative to the higher run profile TOR/BAL, HOU/TEX games.
Eric Hosmer (1B) – KC vs. DET – $4,500 – Detroit SP Mike Pelfrey is one of the top targets of the day with an explosive 5.24 SIERA so far this season. The Royals have an expected 4.80 team total, the highest on the board, and Hosmer has a .369 wOBA against RHP.
“Beltre, however, has one of the best vs. LHP splits of the slate”
Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX vs. HOU – $4,500 – Tourney-play only as the Rangers draw Dallas Keuchel tonight. Beltre, however, has one of the best vs. LHP splits of the slate, with a .407 wOBA.
Kendrys Morales (1B) – KC vs. DET – $4,000 – Another cash-game Royals play, Morales also stings RHP (.366 wOBA) and continues last season’s above average expected power (134 on a 100 average scale).
Jose Altuve (2B) – HOU @ TEX – $4,900 – Altuve is hitting the ball hard, evidenced by his average exit velocity of 94.6, which is top 15 in the league this season. A.J. Griffin, TEX SP, has a 56% fly ball rate and nearly 6.00 SIERA to start this season.
Tyler White (1B) – HOU @ TEX – $4,400 – Smack dab in the middle of that Astros lineup is White, who has above average power metrics (234/145 expected power/hard hit), is hitting 53% fly balls and faces the aforementioned Griffin.
Colby Rasmus (OF) – HOU @ TEX – $3,900 – Almost done with the Astros picks, Rasmus has risen in salary as his power continues to be on display, with a 93.2 average exit velocity (top 30) and (207/142) expected power/hard hit metrics.
Preston Tucker (OF) – HOU @ TEX – $3,300 – Ok, saving the best for last, as Tucker’s $3.3K salary makes him a fantastic value play here. Tucker has the same high power metrics (172/167) and a .341 wOBA and .494 SLG vs. RHP.
“Tucker’s $3.3K salary makes him a fantastic value play here”
Mike Moustakas (3B) – KC vs. DET – $3,900 – Moustakas leads the Royals with a 94.3 average exit velocity, validating his 156/168 power metric numbers. Targeting Mike Pelfrey and KC’s 4.8 expected run total with a strong lefty bat who hits second and less than $4K is great value.
Stephen Vogt (CATCH) – OAK @ NYY – $3,200 – Tourney play against Severino, Vogt has the above average expected power (142 on 100 scale) and the 45% fly ball rate to take advantage of the top lefty HR park in the league last season.
J.J. Hardy (SS) – BAL vs. TOR – $3,000 – Hardy with the 94.4 average exit velocity is the most surprising stat I saw this morning. This helps explain his 151/179 expected power/hard hits metrics so far this season and makes him a sneaky power play in a BAL stack against Estrada tonight.
Josh Reddick (OF) – OAK @ NYY – $3,700 – Like Vogt, Reddick has the power metrics (127) to hit it out of Yankee Stadium, but hits fewer fly balls (33% this season). However, he is still a nice tourney play at $3.7K.