Back from a fun-filled weekend and ready to dive into the night’s seven game slate. Who’s the better stud pitcher tonight: Noah or Jose? There’s a fairly level slate out there tonight, so let’s get our studs and value and start the week out right. Let’s do this!
As always, ask any questions to @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Noah Syndergaard – NYM @ PHL – $12,100 – Philly is the lowest forecasted run scorer of the day (3) and has struck out 24% of the time over the last 14 days. Noah has a 47% GB rate, 28% K-rate and a sterling 2.81 SIERA.
Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. WAS – $11,300 – Incredible at home, with a .221 wOBA lifetime in Miami. Washington is not a push-over, but are also not forecasted to be stellar offensively against Jose, with a meager 3.2 expected run total today.
Jerad Eickhoff – PHL vs. NYM – $8,000 – Sneaking him in the value plays because he’s the next best option to get to 3x salary at SP today. The Mets are a top ten strikeout team and Eickhoff has a 24.5% K-rate with 11% swinging strike rate as well.
Phil Hughes – MIN vs. MIL – $7,500 – Nobody likes to roster Phil Hughes, but the Brewers are bottom ten on the road over the last calendar year (.296 wOBA, 22% K-rate) and goes deeper into games, averaging 6.2 IP/start and 14.52 pitches per IP.
Carlos Gonzalez – COL @ CIN – $5,000 – Dan Straily is abysmal against lefties (5.15 xFIP). There’s also great hitting weather in Cincinnati tonight and the Rockies have some lefties like CarGo (.421 wOBA against RHP, .350 road) that can do damage in a park that is top three in HR for left-handed hitters.
Joey Votto – CIN vs. COL – $4,600 – COL SP Jordan Lyles doesn’t give up the long ball, but he gives up plenty of everything else, rocking a .380 wOBA against lefties on the road. Votto hits everybody, with a strong .405 wOBA against righties.
Mike Trout – LAA @ CHW – $4,600 – US Cellular Field in Chicago was #4 in HR to righties last season and Mike Trout has a .417 wOBA vs. lefties, moving to .433 against LHP on the road.
Bryce Harper – WAS @ MIA – $4,200 – Unless he loses his superpowers, this is one of the lowest salaries you’ll see Harper, because Jose Fernandez. Marlins Park isn’t great, but that doesn’t apply to Harper and his .478 wOBA against RHP.
Matt Carpenter – STL vs. CHC – $4,100 – Matt Carpenter was among the league leaders in expected power/hard hit metrics last season and he’s at 204/156 (100 scale) in those categories against this season. That plus his .389 wOBA against RHP (Lackey), along with leading off with a solid 4.1 expected runs total for STL makes good sense today.
Nolan Arenado – COL @ CIN -$4,700 – High game total (4.3) for the Rockies against and Arenado has a strong wOBA against RHP on the road (.386). Excellent hitting conditions in CIN tonight as well.
Miguel Sano – MIN vs. MIL – $4,200 – The Twins have a surprisingly high team total tonight (4.6) against Chase Anderson and Sano has a .370 wOBA against RHP in his young career.
Anthony Rizzo – 1B – CHC @ STL– $4,800 – Rizzo has a .386 wOBA against RHP and has enjoyed a good bit of success against STL SP Mike Leake (6-30, 2 HR, .990 OPS) and the Cubs have a solid four-run team total tonight.
David Peralta – ARI @ SF – $3,300 – He’s just above average in his power metrics and Jake Peavy has a 4.60 xFIP at home at lefties. Peralta has a .392 away wOBA against RHP to consider tonight as well.
Justin Bour – MIA vs. WAS – $3,300 – .378 wOBA at home with a .900 OPS, so he’s not been handed the memo on Marlins Park and left-handed hitters. Tanner Roark struggled against MIA his last time against them, only lasting four innings and getting hammered for nine hits and three walks in that outing.
Ben Paulsen – COL @ CIN – $3,100 – Here’s another COL lefty that could give Dan Straily (5.15 career xFIP vs. lefties) some problems, as noted above. Paulsen himself has been solid against RHP with a .349 wOBA.
Scott Schebler – CIN vs. COL – $3,200 – Schebler has a 126/142 expected power/hard hit metrics going for him already this season and and 46.2% hard hit% against RHP as well.
Joe Panik – SFG vs. ARI – $3,500 – Panik had a solid .353 wOBA against RHP last season at home and is slightly above average in the power metrics with a 43% fly ball rate.
Randal Grichuk – STL vs. CHC – $3,200 – .382 wOBA against RHP, is batting in the middle of the highly effective (#1 in wOBA, .387) Cardinals team hitting and 141/135 expected power/hard hit combo with a 4.1 expected team total tonight against John Lackey.