No Coors tonight? It’s an almost-to-the-weekend Thursday night slate, and we have five games to pull targets from today, so let’s either keep the roll going or get back on track tonight. Let’s do this!
Cole Hamels – TEX vs. BAL – $10,600 – Slim on the ace side tonight, but Baltimore has been much less effective, hitting-wise, on the road than at home, with a 24% K rate and fifth worst road wOBA. Hamels still has elite swing and miss stuff (13.3% last year, 17 so far this year) to take advantage of that. Texas is also a -133 favorite to win.
Jason Hammel – CHC vs. CIN – $7,900 – Hammel is projected as the top favorite SP tonight, a -156 favorite on a 7.5 game total, lowest on the slate. The Reds are middle of the pack in hitting right now, but have been seventh worst in road wOBA since the start of last season and sixth worst in road wRC+.
Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. CIN – $4,700 – Splendid .404 wOBA against RHP at home last season and fantastic 13.5% walk rate as well. The Cubs are wearing starters out with patience, and the Reds, to start this season, have the worst bullpen in the league.
Mark Teixeira – NYY @ TOR – $4,100 – Toronto starter Stroman throws more ground balls than I’d like to see against Tex, but you have to love his vs. RHP wOBA of .401 and his expected power/hard hit metrics of 193/124 (average is 100) to start this season. The game total in Toronto is a healthy 8.5 as well.
Prince Fielder – TEX vs. BAL – $4,700 – Baltimore starter Chris Tillman is a solid play at home, but falls apart on the road with a .374 wOBA. Fielder has begun the season with an above average expected power number (184) and a strong .378 wOBA against RHP. Toss in some favorable air conditions in Texas tonight and Fielder is a strong play here.
Paul Goldschmidt – AZ @ LAD – $5,100 – Goldy crushes everybody, and he’s here because there could be some overcompensation on the part of Russ Stripling as a part of a fade of Arizona tonight. But Goldy has a .401 wOBA against RHP, making him a solid tourney option even on a short slate.
Jose Bautista – TOR vs. NYY – $4,900 – Joey Bats had a .416 wOBA at home last season and was a destroyer against both LHP and RHP in the process. 8.5 total runs tonight, with an implied total of 4.55 for Toronto.
Carlos Correa – HOU vs. KC – $4,700 – The man just breathes hard contact rates (151 on a 100 scale already this season) and is a difference maker at the SS position tonight.
Nomar Mazara – TEX vs. BAL – $3,300 – Batting second against the aforementioned Tillman, back at home after a tough series in Seattle, Mazara will be back on track tonight, though he still carries a .789 wOBA vs. RHP (way small sample size, of course!).
David Peralta – AZ @ LAD – $3,600 – Still hitting with hard contact (125 on 100 scale) and enjoyed a .396 wOBA against RHP. Even in LA, with a 7.5 game total, Peralta continues to be a value play at $3.6K.
Scott Schebler – CIN @ CHC – $3,100 – Check the lineups to be sure, but this big fella swings the bat with speed and power, leading to an early season 163/163 expected power/hard hit metric combination. He’s batting sixth against righties and nearly made a short evening of John Lackey last night with a bases loaded, home run ready drive that went foul against the wind.
Tommy La Stella – CHC vs. CIN – $2,900 – Our lone sub $3K pick at this point of the day, La Stella enjoys good numbers against RHP, with a .365 wOBA against righties.
Preston Tucker – HOU vs. KC – $3,200 – It’s going to happen soon for Tucker, who has expected power/hard hit metrics of 196/199 so far this season in his 20 at-bats and has 4.33 expected team total to work with, at home, where he rocked a .355 wOBA against righties last season.