It’s still far too early in the season to take current season trends and streaks into play, so much of my research relies on career batter vs. pitcher statistics and lefty vs. righty splits. And, you have to add in a bit of the old gut feeling as well. Let’s not forget about skill set either, which really goes a long way. There’s also park factor and the all-important talent-to-salary value. So, let’s get right into my favorite baseball day of the week – Sunday! Good luck today, and remember you can catch me on Twitter @TheRolyPolyBoy.
Max Scherzer @ PHI ($12,100)– This early in the season you should be able to take advantage of more good hitting values than you will as the year moves along, so spending $12.1 K on Scherzer’s incredible strikeout totals and his general production doesn’t seem too far-fetched. Yes, please, to another 250-plus strikeout year!
Tyson Ross vs. SF ($9,500) – Poor Tyson Ross – he received no run support from Padres’ hitters in 2014 and had to rely upon his arm alone to net victories. With the revamped Padres lineup, that will surely change. That means you can feel much more confident about Ross netting a “W” to go along with his excellent overall ratios and strikeouts.
Henderson Alvarez vs. TB ($6,400) – Suggesting Alvarez is a two-fold reason: 1) He was a very underrated arm in 2014 averaging over 15 FPPG 2) I absolutely love the Miami bats facing Nathan Karns and the Rays today. Maybe I’m a bit more geeked than I should be about those Marlins’ bats, but I’ve got a good idea about the things to come for Karns. Of course, Alvarez still needs to pitch well and I expect him to. The price seems very right here; however, I can see him giving up a homer to Evan Longoria considering their history.
Jesse Hahn vs. SEA ($6,200) – Hahn is an underdog I like to roll with sometimes, even with the Felix Hernandez showdown ahead of him. Look for Hahn to pitch well, and maybe even squeeze a win away from those Seattle bats in Oakland. It’s not much of a sample size, but current Seattle hitters are only hitting .235.
Evan Gattis @ Colby Lewis – TEX ($4,900) – Gattis doesn’t have any career at-bats against Lewis yet, but, considering the stud-catcher options, I like him hitting in Arlington (7th best for hitters in 2014). Plus, when I load up my DFS lineups, I want power in my catcher slot in most cases.
Miguel Montero @ Jordan Lyles – COL ($4,300) – With three catchers on roster for the Cubs, make sure Montero is actually in the Cubs’ lineup before you load him onto yours. I’ll say it now, I’m stacking up on the Cubs on Sunday. Montero is 7-for-14 against Lyles with five RBI.
A.J. Ellis @ Josh Collmenter – ARI ($3,200) – Ellis bears watching. There’s a chance that the Dodgers sit Yasmani Grandal to get some rest, considering it’s a Sunday and Ellis is 4-for-10 with two home runs against Collmenter.
Kurt Suzuki @ Chris Sale – CWS ($3,000) – Surprisingly, Suzuki hits Chris Sale well, with a 4-for-11 hitting history. Suzuki has also knocked in three career RBI against Sale.
Adrian Gonzalez @ Josh Collmenter – ARI ($5,300) – With the way Adrian Gonzalez has started the season, he’s absolutely worth the $5.3 K to get him on your roster. Plus, A-Gone handles Collmenter to the tune of .600 (6-for-10) with a home run.
Freddie Freeman vs. Bartolo Colon – NYM ($4,300) – There is something magical about getting Freeman locked in for $4.3 K, eh? Okay, maybe I’m getting a bit too geeked here, although when I see value… I see value. Yes, you can have value in the stud-range as well. Freeman is 6-for-10 against Colon over his career with three extra-base hits.
Kendrys Morales @ C.J. Wilson – LAA ($3,600) – Morales is 10-for-28 against Wilson over his career, with one homer; although, it would be nice if Morales had a few more extra-base hits (only three). Still, I’m giving him a whirl anyway considering the price tag.
Mark Canha vs. Felix Hernandez – SEA ($2,700) – What? Canha against Felix? I know, seems a bit “out there”, but I’m going with it. Canha has at least one hit in all of his games so far this season. The streak will stop eventually, however, but if you need a player below $3 K? Canha is it.
Scooter Gennett vs. Casey Sadler – PIT ($4,400) – Gennett has had a rough go of it early on, but this is when his bat starts to break through. Spot-starter Casey Sadler – filling in for Francisco Liriano – is in for a nasty day against Brewers’ hitters. Look for Gennett to benefit nicely.
Brian Dozier @ Chris Sale – CWS ($4,100) – Normally, I don’t get too thrilled with the idea of rostering players against Sale; however, Dozier has a couple of round-trippers off the power-lefty. I’ll take that from my SS slot.
Daniel Murphy @ Alex Wood – ATL ($3,900 ) – Murphy has a solid batting average against Wood, although he has done much with the five hits he has. This is more of a gut play than anything.
Devon Travis @ Chris Tillman – BAL ($3,200) – Travis is a suggestion based on his good start to the year and with his major potential overall. The price is certainly right for a kid with this much potential at second base.
Nolan Arenado vs. Kyle Hendricks – CHC ($5,100) – I like Arenado, although I do consider Longoria the better value in the stud range at the third base slot. I really don’t expect much good to come out of either pitcher (Hendricks or Jordan Lyles) on Sunday.
Evan Longoria @ Henderson Alvarez – MIA ($4,500) – Longoria has destroyed Alvarez over his career, with .538 AVG, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB in 13 AB. I’m riding Longoria’s hot history here.
Alex Rodriguez vs. Clay Buchholz – BOS ($4,200) – This isn’t a bad price for A-Rod, although usually $4.2 K is in the stud range for me. A-Rod is slashing .400/.429/.640 against Buchholz over his career, with two homers and seven RBI.
Aramis Ramirez vs. Casey Sadler – PIT ($4,400) – Spot-starter Casey Sadler – filling in for Francisco Liriano – is in for a nasty day against Brewers’ hitters. Look for Aramis Ramirez to benefit nicely.
Troy Tulowitzki vs. Kyle Kendricks – CHC ($6,000) – I know spending $6 K on one hitter is a bit extreme, but today is going to be a wonderful hit-day for both Cubs and Rockies’ hitters. This will likely be on of the only times where I’ll roster Tulowitzki without feeling guilty about the dough I’m spending on him.
Ian Desmond @ Sean O’Sullivan – PHI ($4,900) – O’Sullivan is getting the call up for a spot-start against the Nationals, and Ian Desmond is likely frothing at the mouth. Desmond does it all, filling a box score most days, and makes me feel very squishy inside about snagging him for my DFS lineup.
Jed Lowrie @ Colby Lewis – TEX ($3,800) – Lowrie is slashing .353/.389/.529 against Lewis and you can get him below $4 K. Lowrie has started the season off in fine fashion, and, if you’re looking to save a some bucks at shortstop, Lowrie is your man.
Freddy Galvis vs. Max Scherzer – WAS ($2,800) – Galvis gets the spot due to his hot start and sub $3 K price. I’m not too happy about the Scherzer matchup, but when you get in this range with hitters it’s tough to get too nit-picky.
Andrew McCutchen @ Kyle Lohse – MIL ($5,600) – I’m sure Lohse wishes he didn’t have to face McCutchen, as he’s give up eight RBI at a .317 clip in 41 at-bats to the Pirates’ outfielder. Let’s not forget about the two homers he has as well. Be happy, add Cutch.
Jorge Soler @ Jordan Lyles – COL ($5,600) – What do you get when you cross a power-hitting future superstar with a sub-par pitcher that gives up .345/.418/.618 to current Cubs hitters? Boom! Oh, and let’s not forget that the Cubs have had a chance to settle some at Coors Field, coming off a nice Saturday with the bats. Expect a big day out of Soler.
Mike Stanton vs. Nathan Karns – TB ($5,300) – Let’s just say I don’t have a ton of confidence in Karns’ ability to keep Stanton’s bat in check. This is a pure matchup play – stud power hitter versus a weaker starting pitcher.
Jose Bautista @ Chris Tillman – BAL ($5,200) – Bautista’s .935 OPS against Tillman is highly attractive, as he’s reached base 12 times in 28 at-bats. For a stud hitter, the value is actually pretty decent on Bautista at his $5.2 K price.
Travis Snider vs. Drew Hutchison – TOR ($4,000) – I’ve always been a Snider fan, although it’s somewhat disappointing to me that he didn’t evolve into the hitter I thought he would be. Still, Snider is someone that I’ll be watching all season long closely. I like his good start to the year.
Angel Pagan @ Tyson Ross – SD ($3,700) – Pagan has good history against Ross and he just may be the best outfielder value out there on Sunday. I know I have faith, what about you? It’s difficult to find a better outfielder for the price.
Jonny Gomes vs. Bartolo Colon – NYM ($3,600) – Gomes is 7-for-18 lifetime against Colon, so expect him to slide back into the Braves’ lineup on Sunday. Colon has given up two homers to Gomes, adding up to a reasonably good power-hitting value.
John Mayberry @ Alex Wood – ATL ($2,700) – Looking for a bargain-basement outfielder? Here you go. There’s a decent chance that Mayberry will find his way into the Mets lineup with his decent success against Wood, with a homer and three hits total in 10 at-bats facing him.
Catch on me Twitter @TheRolyPolyBoy if you have questions for me that you insist I answer in a timely and caring manner.