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Sore from the weekend or did you suffer the heartache of Jordan Spieth? Well, Monday brings us a solid six-game main slate tonight, so let’s find our studs and values and get this week kicked off right. Let’s do this!
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Max Scherzer – WAS vs. ATL – $13,100 – May be a tourney only move here due to salary and with a couple of solid cash game plays below him, but Max has the woebegone Atlanta Braves and their 37 RC+ and .223 wOBA on the season and he’s a -286 favorite. They’re also whiffing 24% of the time, good for ninth out of the gate, giving Max some ceiling to go after, even at 13.1K.
Sonny Gray – OAK vs. LAA – $9,600 – Not the same upside as Max, but Gray is a 20% K rate/50% ground ball rate SP, pitching at home, against an Angels team that is suddenly looking very weak beyond Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. They’re off to a .227 wOBA start and a 48 RC+. Wouldn’t mind Hisashi Iwakuma here, either.
Brandon Finnegan – CIN @ CHC – $5,900 – Not a great matchup against the ever-patient Chicago Cubs, but Finnegan has high K-upside potential against a Cubs team that led the league in K% against lefties, in a bad way. Finnegan gets Ks and ground balls, and he’ll need to rack up the Ks in a hurry against this patient bunch.
“His K-rate is over 20 percent and his swinging strike rate was over 11 percent last season”
Nick Tropeano – LAA @ OAK – $5,000 – I said the Angels were bad, but the A’s are no wallbangers, either, having started out at a .271 wOBA, striking out 24% of the time and only walking 6%. Tropeano’s K-rate is over 20% and his swinging strike rate was over 11% last season. He is my top value SP given the low total (7) and strength of opponent.
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Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs. ATL – $4,900 – Harper is at home against Bud Norris, who was in the bottom ten last season in wOBA against left-handed hitters (.385). Harper carries an above average expected power rating of 284 and a 220 hard hit rating (100 is average) along with a .478 wOBA against RHP from last season.
Curtis Granderson (OF) NYM vs. MIA – $4,400 – The Grandy Man continues with excellent power metrics (159 expected power), and a good split matchup tonight against a RHP (.387 wOBA last season). It doesn’t hurt that he is also batting first for the Mets.
Dexter Fowler (OF) – CHC vs. CIN – $4,500 – .376 wOBA against LHP last season, and is at home where he ramped up the wOBA to .419 against lefties last season in 135 at-bats. Fowler has also come out of the gates with a 185 hard contact rating.
Robinson Cano (2B) – SEA vs. TEX – $4,400 – Great combo splits for Cano tonight, at home, against RHP Colby Lewis. Lewis has been a positive matchup for lefties over the past two seasons (.349 wOBA against).
Kyle Seager (3B) – SEA vs. TEX – $4,200 – Seager gets the same good matchup against Lewis and though he struggled at home last season against RHP, he was an animal the season before (.435 wOBA).
Kendrys Morales (1B) – KC @ HOU – $4,000 – Minute Maid Park was an above average HR park last season, for both lefties and righties. Morales brings in a team-leading expected power rating of 209 in a nine run game total and faces a RHP, which Morales raked for a .385 wOBA last season.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA @ NYM – $5,300 – Stanton against lefties is a marvelous thing, enjoying a .415 wOBA split against LHP for his career. Citi Field was slightly above average for HR for righties last season (101 on 100 average scale).
Colby Rasmus (OF) HOU vs. KC – $3,400 – I don’t know what to say if you haven’t received the memo on Colby Rasmus the last two seasons. High power metrics against RHP over his time as an Astro and he gets Chris Young tonight, who has been .320 and .355 wOBA against lefties the last two seasons.
Preston Tucker (OF) – HOU vs. KC – $3,300 – Tucker is another Astros lefty, providing the same inexpensive stack that had a lot of success late last season (Jason Castro another at catcher). Tucker has a .355 wOBA at Minute Maid Park against righties.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX @ SEA – $2,900 – The hyped Mazara came up for Shin-Soo Choo and homered in his debut. He will be highly owned, even against Hisashi Iwakuma, because the price is right for power upside and he batted second in the order last time out.
Zack Cozart (SS) – CIN @ CHC – $3,200 – Cozart will be leading off against a lefty and has enough speed to be able to take advantage of Jon Lester’s legendary inability to hold runners.