There’s an eleven game schedule in MLB on tap for Monday night. We have a lot of aces on the mound and a lot of ways to go. No matter what the price point you play is, there’s plenty of action.
Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ MLB salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each pitcher.
There are serious weather concerns in the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies game tonight. Be sure to track the weather here.
Cream of the Crop
Felix Hernandez vs. Los Angeles Angels ($12,200) – King Felix has reached the three point per $1000 of cost mark in three of five starts. For a guy at his price that is very rare. He faces a team with a .217 batting average against right handed pitching this year. King Felix has only allowed 22 hits in 34 innings so far this season, so you have one of the pitchers who gives up the least amount of hits against one of the teams that has the least amount of them. He is a -150 favorite in a game with a 7 run total. He’s always a threat for a lot of strikeouts as he already has 3 games of 9 or more. When he puts it all together, it turns into a huge daily fantasy score. This could be one of those days.
Dallas Keuchel vs. Texas Rangers ($8000) – Keuchel has five starts and has scored over 24 fantasy points in four of them. He is pitching deep into games and inducing double digit ground balls on a daily basis. He is not a high strikeout kind of guy, but he has a 0.73 ERA and a matching 0.73 WHIP. He is one of the biggest favorites at -185 in a game with a 7.5 run total. Texas has one of the lowest batting averages in the league and the fifth lowest amount of runs. They are better so far against left-handed pitching, but Keuchel has the ability to keep teams off balance. His price is cheap enough that he has upside on a good game.
Carlos Martinez vs. Chicago Cubs ($7400) – Martinez has been amazing through his first four starts. He is averaging 6 innings with a 1.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP with 24 strikeouts in 25 innings. The Cubs have the second most strikeouts in the league. Martinez is a large favorite at -152 in a game with only seven runs expected. It’s in a pitcher’s park and he is has upside since the price is relatively cheap.
Clay Buchholz vs. Tampa Bay ($6800) – Buchholz got shelled against the Blue Jays, but in his previous start he dominated these same Rays. Buchholz recorded 28 fantasy points that day and a repeat of his performance would return over four points per $1000 of cost and make him a top value play. Tampa Bay has the fifth worst batting average, is sixth worst in runs scored, and third overall in strikeouts. This is as good a matchup as a pitcher could ask for. He is a -130 favorite, but the total is sneaking up. He’s not without risk, but Buhholz has a low cost and great upside in a perfect matchup.
Middle of the Pack
Clayton Kershaw vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($12,000) – The Brewers have the lowest batting average in the league and the least amount of runs scored. They also have lead off man Carlos Gomez back in the lineup. The offense has been playing really well. All that is great, but they get Clayton Kershaw on Monday. The reigning Cy Young award winner has at least nine strikeouts in four of his last five. He only has one win so far this year and both his ERA and WHIP are higher this year. He is a huge favorite and in a game with a low total. The high price and low innings are the only concern for a guy who looks like he is getting limited to under 100 pitches per start so far.
Madison Bumgarner vs. San Diego Padres ($10,400) – The lefty was dominant in his last performance, but he faces a tricky matchup today against a strong right-handed hitting team. He is a huge favorite at -165 and the run line is only 6.5 in this one, so it looks good on paper. San Diego though has scored the third most runs in the league so far and has the ninth best batting average. They are 11th in strikeouts, so Bumgarner should still get a bunch, but there’s risk to using him.
Tyson Ross vs. San Fransisco Giants ($9100) – Ross has a good match up. He takes on a Giants team that has scored the third fewest runs in a pitcher friendly park. He has been striking out 7+ guys per game, but it has taken it’s toll on his pitch count and limiting his innings pitched. He is also a big underdog against Madison Bumgarner, so despite his upside, it’s not a certainty at his price. He makes for a great GPP play, but he carries a lot of risk for cash.
Travis Wood vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($7200) – Wood has alternated bad starts where he struggled to get through five and good starts where he has just been lights out. He is a lefty which neutralizes a lot of the bats atop that Cardinals lineup. This game takes place in a pitchers park and has a low total. If the high strikeout Wood shows up against a Cards offense that has struggled to score runs, he could return some nice value. He is the underdog and the Cards do not strike out a ton, so it;s no certainty, but definitely in play for a GPP.
Aaron Harang vs. Atlanta Braves ($6700) – Harang has been good in three of his five starts so far. One of his best was two back against this Braves team. The bats have been hot for Atlanta lately though, so this matchup is looking tougher the second time around. The total on this game is low, but Harang is a big underdog at -140. Still he is pretty cheap and has been going deep into games, so if he limits the damage in a pitcher’s park, he could have GPP upside.
David Phelps vs. Washington Nationals ($4900) – Phelps has already thrown a few solid starts that would have returned excellent value at his price today. He gets a nationals team with the fourth most strikeouts in the league and in a pitcher’s park. He is a big +150 dog in a low total game. Washington has not been great so far on offense and he does not need to do much at only $4900.
Jesse Hahn vs. Minnesota Twins ($6000) – Hahn has been dealing with blister issue’s so his innings pitched are down, but he’s been good with a 2.95 ERA and a WHIP under 1. He does not grab a lot of strikeouts and he does not pitch deep into the game, but his team is favored and he has limited opponents so far. His price is cheap enough that he makes sense if you need to save salary and have some upside.
Ross Detwiler vs. Houston Astros ($4200) – This is a pure price play and it is not for the faint of heart. Detwiler is priced lower than some position players and awin over 5 innings with 3 strikouts is four points per $1000 of cost if he can limit the Astros to two runs or less. Given the propensity of Houston to strikeout, he even has upside from there. Detwiler is capable and has thrown 100+ pitches, so if he’s on and the Stros are free swinging and missing, there’s a lot of upside for him.
Rest of the Field
Jordan Zimmerman vs. Miami Marlins ($8800) – Zimmerman’s strikeout were finally back in his last start, but he is still giving up a ton of hits which are leading to runs scored. The fact he pitched deeper into his last start was encouraging, but as long as he is getting hit hard, the negatives outweight the positives at his price.
Alex Wood vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($8400) – Wood has a good match up with the Phillies and should limit the damage. The problem is the Phillies do not strikeout a lot and Wood does not pitch deep into games. He has been giving up a ton of base runners and driving up his pitch count with walks. While I think he pitches well and has a chance for the win, he probably will not have a lot of strikeouts or go deep into the game against a team that does not K often. At his price he really needs to rack up the Ks or he will have no shot at making value.
Jake Odorizzi vs. Boston Red Sox ($7100) – Odorizzi has strikeout potential which is valuable in daily fantasy MLB. He also has a tougher match up today in a high run total game as an underdog. This Boston offense does not strikeout much and does score a good amount of runs. Neither of those things is positive for Odorizzi’s potential score. His price has come down, but he would need one of those high strikeout games to pay it off and I do not see it against this team.
Chase Whitley vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($4000) – Whitley had a solid first start against a struggling Tampa Bay team. That is not going to be the case today against a powerful Blue Jays lineup. There’s a few bats at the top of that order that can ruin a pitcher’s day with one swing and Whitley is still a young newcomer to the bigs. This is one of the highest totals on the day, so there’s a lot of risk to the play. Chances are Whitley will get tagged for a few runs, but at his price the question is can he still make value?
Matt Shoemaker vs. Seattle Mariners ($7300) – He had two solid starts in the beginning of the year before getting roughed up in his last two against a solid Oakland offense. He averages about8 Ks per 9 Innings, so he has some upside, but he does not pitch deep into games and that Seattle offense has some big bats. He doesn’t need to do a ton with his price being so low, but that assumes he does not give up any walks and hits, which I think is a mistake to assume against this offense.
Phil Hughes vs. Oakland Athletics ($8100) – Hughes has given up a few runs in each of his starts. His Whip is 1.25 and his ERA is around 4.50. He has not pitched well yet and has been knocked around a bit. Add to that fact he is not striking out a ton of batters and he becomes very hard to justify at his lofty price.
RA Dickey vs. New York Yankees ($7000) – you never know what is going to happen when Dickey steps to the plate. When the Knuckler is dancing, he gets a lot of ground balls and swings and misses. When it is not, he gets hit hard. The total here is pretty large and Dickey is the favorite. He has not come close to making value at his current price, and I would not expect that to change against a Yankee team swinging some hot bats.
Kyle Lohse vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($6900) – Lohse has given up 8 homeruns in less than 30 innings. He is at home against a Los Angeles Dodgers team that is second in the league for homeruns hit and the game takes place in Miller park which is homerun friendly. Yeah this is a horrible matchup for Lohse and I would not be surprised if those Dodgers lefties pull a repeat of the other night and smack four more of them..
Josh Collmenter vs. Colorado Rockies ($5600) – Josh Collmenter won people a ton of money last week who rostered him against the Rockies. This time the rematch is in Coors field, which is the best park for hitter’s in the major leagues. No one expected him to shut the Rockies down last out and even less people expect him to do it again. He is very cheap, but I’m not taking any pitcher at Coors if there’s options outside of Colorado to go with.
Tyler Matzek vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($5300) – He is the worst pitcher on the board today and allowed right-handed batters a .300+ batting average in 2014. He is tough on Lefties who hit around .130 against him though. The Diamondbacks have some big righty bats to attack Matzek with and he should give up a few runs in that excellent hitters park.