Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings MLB salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each pitcher.
Cream of the Crop
Chris Heston vs. Chicago Cubs ($9800) – I hate the price on Heston today, and he will be the only player on the cream of the crop list. While he is the best option on the day, he is not a slam dunk by any means. The cubs do have the second highest K% against right-handed pitching and the lowest batting average. Those two facts alone put any right-handed pitcher in play against them. Heston has shown flashes of brilliance as well, so he is not a scrub. He is going about 6 or 7 innings, has had 6 or 7 strikeouts and up to 11 in recent starts. He does not allow a ton of runs in most of his outings. He is a very solid pitcher and someone I would love if he was $1200 cheaper. At his current price though, he is not a surefire play in every roster and he will have huge ownership as the clear cut best option on an otherwise putrid slate for pitching.
Middle of the Pack
Scott Feldman vs. Oakland Athletics ($7000) – I can’t believe how highly I am ranking Feldman today, but it makes a lot of sense when you hear the case. His $7000 price tag is a huge discount today vs. other options with some upside. Oakland’s offense has been mired in a slump and may be without Josh Reddick who was a late scratch yesterday. Reddick currently is the top option the As have to attack right-handed pitching. The #2 guy on the numbers is Stephen Vogt who has seen his wOBA drop over .040 points due to his recent struggles. Feldman gets a park bump, a good price, and a team that has struggled recently. I don’t see him throwing a 9 inning shutout, but those things together could help him reach value at only $7K.
Matt Wisler vs. Miami Marlins ($7400) – Wisler has some talent and a nice price here, but he too carries risk. While that Marlins team is not great, they do have a ton of left-handed bats to throw at him. You will likely see a lineup of Ichiro (L), Dee Gordon (L), Yelich (L), Bour (L) and Dietrich (L) which is the five best bats they have all in a row and all left-handed. Wisler has allowed lefties to hit .293 against him with 4 homers in 20 innings of work already, so this is no easy task either. Still he has been pitching solidly and the price is friendly against a statistically bad offense in a good pitcher’s park. On a large slate, he would not be in consideration, but I think you might have to look at him here with only 10 options to choose from.
Jose Urena vs. Atlanta Braves ($5000) – I will keep this one short and sweet. Urena is not a great pitcher, but neither is anyone else on this slate. He faces one of the worst lineups that has been rolling out AJ Pierzynski in the 3 spot lately. He is in a pitcher friendly park and does not need to do much to pay this off. I do not love him, but I do hate him much less than other options. It’s not a rousing endorsement of him, but beggers can not be choosers on such a small and ugly slate.
Jason Hammel vs. San Fransisco Giants ($10300) – Hammel has been solid all year, but this is a very high price and a very tough matchup for him. He has only allowed a .217 average to righties and a .236 average to lefties this year, but that Giants team has a long lineup filled with quality bats, so this is no easy task. They will probably roll out five or six guys from Posey to Pence To Panik to Belt to Duffy who all own .360 wOBAs or better against right-handed pitching. I also like the matchup here for Chris Heston more, so the win is definitely in doubt. San Fran is a patient team, so Hammel might not go as deep as usual on top of it and they also do not strike out at a high rate. With Hammel as the most expensive option, I just do not see him as one of the best guys to use with all the drawbacks today.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. New York Yankees ($9100) -The rookie has been good so far, but he is getting really expensive. He takes on a Yankees team in Yankee Stadium that has mashed left-handers lately. Chris Young has a .470 wOBA, A Rod has a .450 wOBA with both guys having ISO scores over .325. Even Teixiera at .364, .211 has great numbers in this matchup. The middle of that Yanks order will be tough for Rodriguez to deal with. Throw in guys like Ellsbury and Gardner who are tough outs up top and you can see why paying up for him today is not the best way to go. Pitching is really tough on this short slate, and Rodriguez has good numbers. While I do not think he gets lit up, I also am not expecting a huge upside game from him here.
Kyle Gibson vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($8400) – A matchup in the Rogers Centre and a high price have me concerned about Gibson today. Even though the Blue Jays smash lefties, they are not horrible against right-handed pitching either. Guys like Tulo, Donaldson, and Joey Bautista are all solid options vs. either handedness. Gibson had a nice run of starts a few weeks back where he threw up 23-30 points per outing, but has since fallen way back from those numbers. Toronto has one of the most explosive and prolific offenses in the league. They have homerun hitters from top to bottom and guys who get on base inbetween. Gibson is one of the pitchers I like on this slate, but the match up is one of the worst ones we see. He does not have much upside against a potent offense in a hitter’s park at his elevated price.
Rest of the Field
CC Sabathia vs. Boston Red Sox ($7300) – CC has been horrible at home this year and downright ugly against right-handed bats. Righties are hitting .331 against him with 21 homers in 88 innings of work. The Red Sox are not particularly strong against left-handed pitching this year, but CC has been so bad that may not matter. Guys like Xander Bogaerts and Mike Naopoli have great numbers against lefties and should do well here today. Yankee/Red Sox games always tend to se a lot of runs scored and CC would need quite a reversal of recent form to make this a spot you want to use him in.
Mark Buehrle vs. Minnesota Twins ($8900) – The Twins have a lot of good right-handed bats. They have been really solid against left-handed pitching all year. I actually like Buehrle to do OK here, but at almost $9K, he needs to be dominant to pay it off. The Rogers Centre is a tough place for pitchers and Buehrle has only reached 18 once in his last five starts. 18 would only be two points per thousand of cost and way too short of value to justify using him. The Twins numbers are much better against lefties than righties as well, so it is not an ideal matchup.