Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings MLB salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each pitcher.
Cream of the Crop
Jacob DeGrom vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($12000) – Degrom is easily the top option on the mound today and will be 70% owned in cash games throughout the site. He has been dominant this season with a 1.98 ERA, a WHIP of 0.89, and 158 strikeouts in 154 innings of work. In his last seven starts he is averaging close to 28 points per contest, which is not great value for the price, but makes him the likely top scorer on the day. He has only allowed a .172 batting average to right-handed bats and a .220 average to lefties this season. While the Phillies have been playing much better, those are ELITE numbers from the second year Mets hurler. His offense has also been on fire as they put up over 30 runs this weekend in Coors field and get a soft matchup with Adam Morgan here, so the win is a high probability event today for DeGrom.
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Oakland Athletics ($10200) – It’s not often that the top priced options are also the best, but today is one of those days. Iwakuma had a slow start as he rounded into form from his injury, but he has reverted back to the stud status we saw from him last year when he was at the top of his game. He has gone about 8 innings in each of his last fur starts and returned over 30 fantasy points per game on average through them. During this run he has pitched 32 innings, allowed 14 hits, 5 walks, 6 runs, and struck out 27. He faces an Oakland team today in his home park that has been struggling. Oakland can not seem to buy a run and since Iwakuma has not given up many, this is a really bad matchup for them and a great spot for him. His biggest weakness has been a .248 average to left-handed bats, but the A’s big lefties in Reddick and Vogt have been slumping bad lately, so there is not much to be concerned with. His price is reasonable based on his recent production, so he makes for a top play today.
Middle of the Pack
Joe Kelly vs. Chicago White Sox ($5900) – Cy Kelly as he proclaimed himself a candidate before the season is actually starting to pitch much better. He has three straight starts where he has averaged about 20 fantasy points, which would make him a great value today at his price. The White Sox offense had one two week period of dominance and they have quickly slid back down to being a bad team. Kelly has some strikeout potential which creates a nice floor and has been pitching much better lately, so at this price I think he is back in play today with a good floor and a really good chance for upside.
Jorge De La Rosa vs. Atlanta Braves ($7100) – De La Rosa has been very good on the road this year and has put up solid numbers with just shy of 20 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 starts. The Atlanta Offense he faces has been struggling and he gets a huge park bump moving from Coors to Turner Field. De La Rosa has been tough on right-handed bats this year and his struggles have come against the lefties. The Braves do not have a lot of big left-handed bats, so he is in a good spot. I don’t see huge upside coming from him, but a return to those recent 18/19 fantasy point games would be nice value and make a lot of sense.
Julio Teheran vs. Colorado Rockies ($8100) – Teheran is starting to look like the guy many expected him to be this year, but he has a very interesting matchup here. He has really picked up the strikeouts lately with about 6.5 per start over his last six starts. The drawback of that is he is only going about 6 innings in those recent games. Colorado has worse splits on the road, but they also have a lot of left-handed bats that hit righties well like Car Go, Paulsen, and Blackmon on top of that order. Teheran has struggle to a .298 batting average with 10 homers in 66 innings of work against left-handed batters, so nothing here is as simple as it seems to figure out. This one could go either way, but he is still one of the better options on such a short slate devoid of great pitching.
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Houston Astros ($6500) – This could be a sneaky good spot for the hard throwing Yankee right-hander. The Astros are a high strikeout team without a lot of left-handed bats. Eovaldi has been great against right-handed bats, but lefties have hit him hard with a .325 batting average this year. He is favored for the win going opposite Scott Feldman and at the cheap price does not need to do much. He threw up a 25 fantasy point game last time out and that gives him huge upside with the strikeouts and recent performance at a price tag of only $6500.
Felix Doubront vs. Seattle Mariners ($4900) – Doubront is not in line for the win here and will likely not make it past 6 innings. Yet he still makes a good start here, because he is just way too cheap. He has strikeout upside as he flashed in his last start with 8 of them against the Dodgers. If he can get 5 through six innings and limit the damage to 3 runs of less, he will provide a nice return. He did have 25 fantasy points last time out as well, so there is potential upside on this play as well.
Robbie Ray has been scratched from tonight’s start. Jhoulys Chacín will start for the Diamondbacks.
Robbie Ray vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($6300) – Ray actually has a pretty decent matchup here. The Cards have struggled against left-handed pitching and his offense has been on point. He does not have huge upside and does get hit a little bit, but the big right-handed bats this year on the Cardinals are all injured. The only one left is really Jhonny Peralta with Grichuk and Holiday still banged up. Ray is at home, but has not shown the upside to really give confidence in using him for cash games. He has a great matchup though and his offense has been pounding out runs, so as a tournament flyer, you can do worse.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Boston Red Sox ($6800) – The Shark is maddening this year. He goes and throws up a bunch of negative numbers in a row, then comes back and has 21 fantasy points last time out. Boston has been real good against right -handed pitching as well, so the matchup is not ideal. The price is inviting, but there is absolutely no safety or consistency in his numbers. He is better than his numbers have shown, but if you are using him in anything outside of a tournament, I do not see how you justify doing so.
Lance Lynn vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($9300) – This is an interesting matchup to look at as it pits one of the best offenses since the break against a pitcher who has been solid all season. Lynn’s biggest weakness is left-handed bats, so guys like Peralta and Inciarte have the best matchup. The Diamondbacks do hit very well at home and very well against right-handed pitchers too, so guys like Goldy, Pollock, and Wellington will not be easy outs. Arizona has one of the best wOBAs in the league since the all-star break as well, so Lynn will have his hands full. He is a good pitcher and likely will not get lit up, but it’s also not exactly an easy spot for him either.
Keyvius Sampson vs. Detroit Tigers ($4400) – Sampson has been ok so far in his career and is really cheap here today. He has been stingy to right-handed bats and lit up by lefties for a .324 average/ Detroit does not really have any lefties to worry about, but they are a big hitting team with some solid sticks in righty on righty matchups. If Sampson can get through five and the Reds do damage against Farmer though, he could be in line for a win. If he can limit the damage as he has been able to do in most of his first few starts, he could return a score between 12-18 here, which would be great value.
Rest of the Field
Ubaldo Jiminez vs. Kansas City Royals ($7800) – At this price he makes very little sense to use in this matchup. Ubaldo is much worse on the road, which is strike one. He faces the Royals who have the lowest strikeout percentage in the league vs. right-handed pitching and he relies on the K for his upside which is strike two. They also have one of the highest batting averages against right-handed pitching which is strike three. Top it off with a high price and this is not the spot to be considering him.
Adam Morgan vs. New York Mets ($4700) – Morgan trolled DFS players last time out who put no faith in him against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays had mashed lefties all year, so it made perfect sense to everyone but Morgan. He was more lucky than good that day and it is highly unlikely that trend continues. The Mets are coming off a weekend series in Coors where they almost broke the scoreboards. The whole team is feeling good and they are getting back some of the injured players as well, so the lineup is strong. It seems like a game people will look towards Morgan after his performance against the Blue Jays, but I would not be fooled into using him here today.
Kris Medlin vs. Baltimore Orioles ($5200) – Medlin has not started a game in two years. He was a solid pitcher before his injury though and has been good in relief appearances this season. The problem here is that he won’t go deep into this game and will be lucky to get through five. I really have no idea how well or bad he will do, but he should not put up a huge fantasy score if that is as far as he goes. There is no safety and less upside with him even at this price. It makes passing on him very easy.
Buck Farmer vs. Cincinnati Reds ($4000) – Buck farmer is a big prospect, but you would never know it based on what he has done so far. He has been atrocious in his limited innings so far. Left-handed bats are hitting .385 against him and righties are not far behind at .308. He has allowed 6 homeruns in 24 innings of work and gets a park downgrade here as they play this one in hitter friendly Cincinnati. Unless he has a massive turnaround, there is nothing good to say here about Farmer.