Good luck on Wednesday, and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy
Today’s Highlighted Contests
Cream of the Crop
1) Dallas Keuchel vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($11,400) – Keuchel is a dominant play, one that I love for 50/50 leagues. What’s not to like? 1.26 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .182 BAA, 2 CG, 98 K in 92.2 IP and a 29.5 FPPG average pitching in Houston. I mean, Cha-Ching! Sure, he could have a bad night but the chances are only 13.458 %. Not really, just kinda pulled that number out of the hat, but it does look good, right?
2) Tyson Ross vs. Atlanta Braves ($11,100) – Ross facing the Braves hitters is a big boost for DFS owners. Ross brings strikeouts, although he doesn’t get deep into games. He needs to cut down on his free passes and get a bit deeper into games, but he’s worth the risk.
3) Corey Kluber @ Boston Red Sox ($11,200) – Three out of his last four starts have hit above the 33 FPPG mark. Wow-zers. Kluber is making DFS owners happy, eh? He can have a stinker like other dominant arms, although I’m confident he does enough to at least give us 20 fantasy points. The upside for more though is huge.
4) Jaime Garcia vs. San Francisco Giants ($10,300) – In Garcia’s 11 games this season he’s been surprisingly consistent, but injuries have destroyed a truly fantastic year. Still, all we’re worried about is today. What can Garcia do for us on Wednesday? The Giants have a pretty solid offense overall, although they don’t create a ton of power (20th in HR). Feel confident starting Garcia at home, although I wish the price tag was just a smidge lower.
5) Jon Lester vs. Detroit Tigers ($9,900) – So what makes Lester a dominant starter compared to a good starter? Strikeouts. He’s averaging about 6.31 innings per game this season, so he does get fairly deep into games. The wind is blowing out to left field at 15 MPH as of this writing, so that’s something to consider with the Tigers likely loading up with right-handed bats. Still, Lester is a decent risk at $9.9 K.
Middle of the Pack
6) Jesse Chavez vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($7,900) – Chavez is starting to settle down of late, with two starts in a row just under the 20 FPPG mark. The matchup isn’t great, but the Dodgers tank on the road at times with a 25-31 record in 2015. Chavez is a decent risk at this price but don’t expect a win.
7) Julio Teheran @ San Diego Padres ($10,000) – The Park Factor at Petco gives Teheran a boost, but is that enough reason to pay $10 K for him? That’s the question you have to answer, and personally I’m not willing to spend that kind of dough on Teheran normally… BUT…. he’s been pitching better of late, so going from $7 K his last start to $10 K? I’m sure Teheran will pitch solid enough.
8) Nathan Eovaldi vs. Minnesota Twins ($7,300) – If you’re okay with a 15-point day as a max for Eovaldi, then great – I really like him to hit that mark. The matchup is solid with Twins bats being less than average at best. Eovaldi is a much better pitcher at home, earning a 3.41 ERA in New York compared to a 4.94 road ERA.
9) Wily Peralta vs. Miami Marlins ($6,500) – Sneaky play here in Peralta, especially considering the price at $6.5 K. Peralta will be successful if he can keep the ball down, as with most pitchers, so if you’re scrounging for an arm in this range – here you go.
10) Noah Syndergaard @ Baltimore Orioles ($10,200) – We know the kid is talented, but I’m not a fan at all with his start in Baltimore where the Orioles are 36-20 on the year and playing very good ball. Chris Davis alone has been a monster. Syndergaard isn’t the smartest play on Wednesday, not for a $10 K-plus price.
11) Mark Buehrle @ Philadelphia Phillies ($7,300) – You’re not going to get a 20-point start from Buehrle because he doesn’t strike hitters out, but he’s a safe play at the $7 K price tag. I do like the matchup facing the Phillies’ bats and that Buehrle gets fairly deep into games. If you get 15 fantasy points out of Buehrle, then pat yourself on the back. If you get 12? He wasn’t a bad play.
12) Jered Weaver vs. Chicago White Sox ($6,100) – Weaver’s GB/FB ratio is unattractive, enough for me to pass on him even pitching at home. Opponents are hitting .282 against Weaver in Anaheim, which to means Weaver has been fairly lucky posting a 3.45 ERA at home. One positive: Weaver does have a 16.4 FPPG average at home compared to a 7.6 FPPG on the road. I won’t fault you for going with him, but you could do worse at this price tag. I’m passing, mainly due to the GB/FB ratio.
13) Ervin Santana @ New York Yankees ($4,800) – Okay, I probably won’t find many agreeing with me, but I have faith in Santana turning things around. I know that New York isn’t the best place for a struggling pitcher to throw, so if you’re against me here – no problem. I’m not saying I’m starting Santana tomorrow, as non-committal as that sounds, but if my lineup was scrounging for a low-priced arm who has fantastic potential? Ahem.
14) Nathan Karns @ Houston Astros ($7,700) – The Rays seem to be watching Karns’ pitch count very closely over his last five games especially. Karns isn’t even hitting the 90-pitch mark, and that means he’s just barely averaging a little over 5 IP over those games. Me no like-y. Karns does pitch well on the road, however. Something to think about, but not really at this price.
15) Stephen Strasburg @ Colorado Rockies ($9,100) – Strasburg has looked really good since his return from the DL, for like the 17th time. Alright, maybe it’s the third time? With 20 K and a 30 FPPG average over his last two starts it sure makes you think about starting him. But, in Coors Field? Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. If the price tag was lower, I’d consider it. I’m not confident enough in Strasburg to pay the price.
16) Mat Latos @ Oakland Athletics ($7,600) – Latos has been the epitome of inconsistency in DFS play since he joined the Dodgers at the trade deadline, and a below double-digit FPPG average doesn’t exactly drive owners into snagging him. I worry about the Dodgers and their road woes this season. There may be potential here with Latos, but you can roster better.
17) Jorge De La Rosa vs. Washington Nationals ($6,300) – The Nationals have been struggling as a club, although Coors Field could right things for them. De La Rosa is a bit underrated in my book, although don’t feel like he’s due for a monster showing.
Rest of the Field
18) Keyvius Sampson vs. Kansas City Royals ($5,800) – If Sampson shuts down the Royals then my faith in him will have been renewed, considering I’ve been following this guy since his early prospect days with the Padres. Kevin Towers, who joined the Reds this season as a special assistant to GM Walt Jocketty, knows Sampson and took a chance on him after his abysmal failure with other clubs. Sampson is proving himself right now, but, man, while I like what he’s done to this point since being promoted, I’m not prepared to go all-in. Sampson is a faithful risk. Do you have faith? Nah.
19) Ubaldo Jimenez vs. New York Mets ($7,400) – The inconsistency on Jimenez drives me nuts. I’d rather go with another pitcher in this price range, namely Mark Buehrle.
20) Tom Koehler @ Milwaukee Brewers ($7,500) – If Koehler could just be a strikeout pitcher, he’d be everyone’s underrated play. Okay, well, he’d be MY underrated play. No strikeouts = not in my lineup. Pass.
21) Jeremy Guthrie @ Cincinnati Reds ($4,000) – I’ve got wishy-washy feelings on Guthrie, mainly since I think he can unexpectedly come through for the Royals… even on the road. More of a gut feeling than anything, but I’m just not brave enough to take the chance on him. Are you?
22) Mike Montgomery @ Texas Rangers ($6,100) – Montgomery is a perfect example of opposite spectrum’s – dominant at times and piss-poor at other times. Do you really want Montgomery pitching in Arlington? You can do way better. And, no, I’m not just saying that because Montgomery is coming off 2.1, 9 ER performance against the Red Sox last start out. No, don’t use that as added fuel to sit him. Really. Don’t.
23) Joe Kelly vs. Cleveland Indians ($5,600) – Wait? Is this same Joe Kelly we all saw get demolished early in the season? Kelly has averaged over 22 FPPG over his last two starts, but I just don’t see why you’d take the chance on him unless you were going contrarian. And, even then, there are better choices.
24) Jeff Samardzija @ Los Angeles Angels ($6,800) – How the mighty have fallen, eh? Until Samardzija figures out what’s wrong, I’m staying away. The home runs allowed (20 this season) are enough for me to avoid him right now.
25) Matt Cain @ St. Louis Cardinals ($4,800) – Cain has given up 18 ER over his last four starts, on 4 HR and 7 BB. His command has been pitiful and there’s no real reason to consider him heading into St. Louis.
26) Robbie Ray @ Pittsburgh Pirates ($6,600) – With a 4.56 ERA and a .283 BAA, Ray is someone you can pass on entirely pitching in Pittsburgh. He’s not the worst option on Wednesday, but sort of the best-of-the-worst.
27) J.A. Happ vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,400) – I had a recent potential trade partner in my long-time NL-only league tell me Happ is horrible when I tried to pawn him off, and he’s right. Happ is horrible. Don’t buy into his last game performance.
28) Daniel Norris @ Chicago Cubs ($5,100) – I’m okay starting Jon Lester in this game with the wind blowing out to left field at 15 MPH, but I’m not okay starting Norris. Yikes.
29) Adam Morgan vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($4,200) – Again, it’s all about the strikeouts and Morgan doesn’t provide any. Plus, he’s facing the best hitting team in the Majors in the Blue Jays. I expect a very early exit for Morgan on Wednesday.
30) Derek Holland vs. Seattle Mariners ($8,800) – Are you kidding me? Really? I understand that Holland is facing the Mariners’ bats in only his second start of the season, but come on – this is a ballooned-up salary and if you snag Holland you’re crusin’ for a bruisin’, as my Dad would say. Even if Holland pitches a no-hitter on Wednesday, I will NOT feel bad for telling you to avoid. Look at my ranking… dead last.
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