Last night’s slate was all about the long balls. Despite it being a smaller slate, three players double donged. Tonight could be another offense filled slate. Even though there are 14 games, there aren’t very many strong pitching options and there is a Coors Field game.
StudWalker Buehler, LAD at BAL, $12,300 — The price tag is massive, but Buehler is the only safe pitching option on tonight’s slate. Playing the lowly Orioles, the Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the night, giving Buehler a high floor and making him likely to pick up a win bonus. Since the All-Star break, he has a 2.93 ERA and the month of August was the strongest month of his young career. In the month, Buehler had a 1.69 ERA and struck out 13.5 hitters per nine innings.
Other Options — Zack Wheeler ($10,000), Trevor Bauer ($9,100)
ValueIvan Nova, CHW vs. KC, $4,800 — The upside for Nova isn’t high, however he doesn’t need to score many points to pay off such a cheap salary. He’s coming off back-to back-awful starts, but they came in tough matchups on the road. Nova’s last two outings were in Cleveland and Atlanta. Tonight, he faces a bad Royals offense at home. Kansas City has an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and Nova has a solid 3.32 ERA in the second half of the season.
Other Options — Nathan Eovaldi ($7,300), Chase Anderson ($6,000)
StudYadier Molina, STL at COL, $4,300 — Molina is the first of a handful of Cardinals I like tonight. Playing at Coors Field with a slate-high 7.3 implied run total, it’s tough to get away from them. Despite being 37 years old, Molina has gotten better as the season has worn on. Since the All-Star break, he has a 135 wRC+ and has hit four homers in the last 13 games, even though he’s only hit eight homers for the year.
Other Options — J.T. Realmuto ($4,900), Yasmani Grandal ($4,400)
ValueBuster Posey, SFG vs. PIT, $3,200 — Rostering right-handed hitters against Mitch Keller ($8,800) has been a wise strategy this season. He’s a top prospect with great stuff, but it isn’t translating to MLB success quite yet. Keller is allowing a .409 wRC+ to righties and has a 8.18 ERA. In addition, his health is a bit questionable after leaving his last start early with a wrist injury.
Other Options — Tyler Flowers ($3,900), Tony Wolters ($3,200)
FIRST BASEPaul Goldschmidt, STL at COL, $5,100 — Goldschmidt has a lot of experience playing at Coors Field and it shouldn’t come as a shock that he’s had success hitting in the best hitter’s park in the league. In 62 games in Denver, he has a .327/.415/.608 slash line. Goldy should be able to add to his numbers at Coors Field against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has an 11.17 ERA at home this season.
Other Options — Cody Bellinger ($5,600), Daniel Murphy ($4,700)
ValueRhys Hoskins, PHI vs. ATL, $4,300 — I can’t turn down the chance to roster Hoskins for cheap against a lefty. He has a 156 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and is also playing at home, where he’s shown more power this season. In Philly, Hoskins has a .262 ISO.
Other Options — Justin Smoak ($3,700), Ji-Man Choi ($3,600)
StudOzzie Albies, ATL at PHI, $4,900 — As a switch-hitter, Albies has such extreme splits that I wonder if he would be better off sticking to hitting as a righty. Hitting from the right side of the plate, he has a 175 wRC+ compared to a 94 wRC+ hitting from the left side of the plate. This puts him in play pretty much every game he faces a southpaw and he gets to face a hittable one tonight in Jason Vargas, who has a 5.02 ERA in the second half of the season.
Other Options — Kolten Wong ($4,800), Ryan McMahon ($4,700)
ValueKike Hernandez, LAD at BAL, $4,000 — Just like Albies, Hernandez is a hitter to roster against southpaws and avoid against right-handed pitchers. He has a .268/.338/.444 slash line against left-handed pitching and has a 134 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Other Options — Nick Solak ($3,900), Brock Holt ($3,400)
StudJosh Donaldson, ATL at PHI, $5,100 — Ever since introducing his umbrella home run celebration, Donaldson has been on fire. He’s making sure to put the gimmick to good use. He has eight homers in his last 15 games and at least 18 DKFP in five of his last seven games. Donaldson should be able to keep his run going against Vargas.
Other Options — Rafael Devers ($5,200),
Justin Turner ($5,000)
Editor’s Note: Turner (ankle) was scratched from the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Orioles.
ValueNick Solak, TEX vs. TBR, $3,900 — The top prospect in the Rangers’ organization has started his big league career on the right foot. He has a 148 wRC+, carrying his success from the minor leagues into the MLB. This is leading to plenty of fantasy points and he’s averaging 13 DKFP in his last four games.
Other Options — Luis Arraez ($4,000), Evan Longoria ($3,700)
StudPaul DeJong, STL at COL, $4,800 — I don’t see too much reason to spend up for shortstop because of the cheap guy I am writing up next although DeJong is another Cardinals’ hitter with a high ceiling playing at Coors Field. He’s scored at least 16 DKFP in three of his last five games and his 26 homers make him one of the best power hitting shortstops in the National League.
Other Options — Trevor Story ($5,400), Chris Taylor ($4,400)
ValueNico Hoerner, CHC at SDP, $2,100 — My favorite value play on the slate, Hoerner burst on the scene making his MLB debut last night. Due to the Cubs’ injuries at the shortstop position, he got called up for a shot to help the team down the stretch. He delivered with three hits and 26 DKFP. Since the Cubs were playing in a late game, the pricing for today came out before it could adjust to a massive first game for the stud prospect.
Other Options — Jean Segura ($4,000), Elvis Andrus ($3,900)
StudRonald Acuna, ATL at PHI, $5,200 — After a few down games, Acuna appeared to break out of his slump last night. He scored 22 DKFP, including a leadoff homer against Aaron Nola. The most encouraging part of last night’s performance, Acuna had been struggling with fastballs up in the zone and the homer he hit was a 95 mph up and in pitch from the one of the top pitchers in baseball.
Other Options — Charlie Blackmon ($5,500), Nelson Cruz ($5,200)
ValueJordan Luplow, CLE at LAA, $4,200 — A platoon specialist, Luplow has hit 10 of his 11 homers against southpaws this season. Against left-handed pitching, he has a 168 wRC+. The only real concern is that he might get pinch-hit for later in the game, but he starts the night in a great spot. Angels SP Jose Suarez is allowing a .422 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
Other Options — Dexter Fowler ($4,500), Oscar Mercado ($4,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.