Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers

Wednesday has several afternoon games on the card, and the nine-game evening evening card doesn’t offer many places to find an edge. For that reason, I’m focusing in on two games that I think we can find an advantage.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


TEX ML (-104)

Aside from being on the road, I believe the Rangers are coming into this game with an advantage in every important category. We’re expecting this one to be a pitcher’s duel, but Matt Boyd hasn’t been the stud we’ve become accustomed to seeing in his recent starts. In four starts in June, Boyd has a 6.14 ERA and has allowed five runs in consecutive starts. The Tigers have lost all four games, giving up at least six runs in each of them. With the 25th-ranked bullpen and 29th-ranked offense leaving minimal room for error, Detroit’s lost seven of Boyd’s past eight starts, with the only win coming against the Orioles.

Then we have the Rangers, who go overlooked offensively on the road. While they rank second in MLB in runs per game, they still rank sixth in runs per game on the road at 5.42. While offense is obviously the biggest advantage in this one, the pitching works in Texas’ favor as well. Mike Minor is 7-4 with a 2.52 ERA and has been trending in the opposite direction of Boyd — a 1.93 ERA in four starts in June. The Rangers won all four of those starts, giving up nine total runs as a team (six by Minor in 28 innings). The Rangers’ bullpen ranks 21st overall, so they own a slight edge late in the game as well.


Lead After 5 Innings: TEX (+120)

While I feel the Rangers clearly have what it takes to pull this game out, I like the first five innings a lot. These bullpens rank similarly, and you never know what could happen late in a game with bad pitching — even though the bullpen’s been great behind Minor lately.

The numbers on the season point to Minor having an advantage over Boyd, and it’s been by a whopping amount this month. Factor in the much more productive offense on the same side of this bet, and it makes for a very strong spot to take advantage. We also get plus money by going with the first five innings, but the Rangers need to hold the lead.


Total Runs Inning 1: UNDER 0.5 (-103)

So I was planning on going for another first five inning bet here, but I thought the OVER/UNDER would be set at five runs, rather than 4.5. This is the game that has the potential to be the pitcher’s duel of the night, so if you feel comfortable in UNDER 4.5 (+100), I can’t argue with you. If it moved to UNDER 5.0, I’d make that one of my plays in this article.

Jake Odorizzi will face Charlie Morton in this one, and all the numbers are working in favor of these two not allowing many runs. Odorizzi is 6-0 through seven starts at home, with a 1.91 ERA in his own ballpark. He recently faced the Rays in Tampa at the beginning of the month and pitched six shutout innings, allowing just three hits. Odorizzi’s had some struggles in his ast two starts against the Royals but had an eight-start stretch from April 22 to June 2 where he didn’t allow a run in the first inning.

Morton thrives on the road, where he’s 5-0 through nine starts, and has a 1.57 ERA. Morton hasn’t allowed a run in the first inning in his past six starts, including one against the Twins. Through his 16 starts on the season combined, Morton’s surrendered a run in the first inning on only three occasions. Look for this one to get off to a low-scoring start.


Jake Odorizzi Strikeouts: OVER 5.5 (-139)

I mentioned Odorizzi’s recent struggles, which seem to be more matchup-related with the Royals. He only struck out two in the loss during his most recent start but prior to that was on a roll, striking out at least six in five straight starts. Odorizzi struck out as many as nine batters in a game, twice during the streak, and never pitched more than six innings. Striking out just more than a batter an inning this season and averaging 5.8 per game, Odorizzi should be able to find his way to at least six punchouts in this one.

The Twins’ ace began the season by punching out 11 Indians, so he has the upside for a big strikeout game. To top it off, the Rays strike out the eighth-most in baseball at 9.33 times per game — nine times as the hands of Odorizzi when he went six innings against them earlier this month.


Keep it to single plays

I’d really like to help you hit a big parlay, but I can’t force it when nothing is there. This MLB card offers limited spots to target, to the point I could only find worthwhile bets in two of the nine games. Stay focused on those for now, and if something changes, I’ll have it on Twitter for you.

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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.

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