We went 2-2 on Wednesday’s article plays, so let’s look for some winning plays on Thursday evening’s 10-game MLB card.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. HOUSTON ASTROS (7:05 P.M. ET)
NYY ML (-141)
Not your typical pitching matchup for a couple of World Series favorites, as Framber Valdez takes on Chad Green at Yankee Stadium. Valdez has only started two of his 16 appearances this season, and Green’s started five of his 22 outings, so it’s basically a bullpen game for both sides. While Houston may have the “opener” advantage, both of these bullpens rank nearly identical on the season.
This game likely comes down to offense, and the Yankees are getting healthy and smashing the ball right now, while the Astros are still working with a thin lineup. The Yanks went for 12 runs yesterday afternoon against Blake Snell and the Rays, and have now scored 39 total runs in their last five games. The Astros managed just seven total runs in their entire three-game series to start this road trip in Cincinnati, and were shutout by the Blue Jays in the final game before this trip. I’ll side with New York’s offense for the time being.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS. WASHINGTON NATIONALS (7:05 P.M. ET)
OVER 10.5 (-109)
After a strong start to the season, Erick Fedde finally regressed, just as we thought he would last week. We won on the Diamondbacks against him last week, and now he’s in position to let up another high total. Fedde allowed five runs in six innings, and he pitched much closer to his 5.45 career ERA than how he looked to begin 2019. While Washington’s bullpen’s been stronger lately, it still ranks dead last in baseball with a 6.20 ERA.
Two of Pivetta’s best starts have come on the road, where he has a 2.84 ERA, but got lit up by the Nationals for seven runs in a start earlier this season. The Nationals dominated Pivetta last season, as he had a ridiculous 11.77 ERA in five games against them. The Phillies bullpen has been an absolute dumpster fire lately, and is becoming one of the worst in baseball. After a pitcher’s duel a night earlier, this is a spot we should see some runs rack up.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. LOS ANGELES ANGELS (7:07 P.M. ET)
LAA -1.5 (-105)
The Angels are now 6-0 against the Blue Jays this season, winning all three games of this current series in Toronto by two runs or more. The total score of the series thus far is 24-12, and I expect Los Angeles to keep rolling in the finale. Jose Suarez has only pitched 16 innings this season, but has a solid 4.50 ERA in his three starts. Clayton Richard’s been an absolute mess for the Blue Jays, with an 0-3 record and 7.52 ERA.
Toronto’s lost Richard’s last two starts by a combined score of 15-4, and he allowed 12 of those runs in just 7 2/3 innings. While the bullpens are very comparable, these offenses obviously aren’t. The Angels have cracked the top-10 in runs per game at 5.16, while the Jays rank just 26th at 3.95 per game — a number that drops to 3.68 at home.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS. MINNESOTA TWINS (8:15 P.M. ET)
MIN -1.5 (-137)
This is one of the strongest spots of the day, as Jake Odorizzi’s been one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball this season. He has a 2.24 ERA with a 10-2 record, one of those wins over the Royals in his last start. The Twins have won an insane 11 consecutive games with Odorizzi on the mound, eight of them by two or more runs.
Minnesota has virtually every single advantage in this game, which is why we have to pay a premium price on the run line. Glenn Sparkman will get the start for Kansas City, after allowing five runs to the Twins in five innings in his last start. While the Twins only won the previous Odorizzi versus Sparkman matchup 5-4, Kansas City’s lost each of the last eight games Sparkman’s pitched in. While the Twins bullpen is their only weakness, the Royals still rank lower in that category as well. Offensively there’s no contest, with Minnesota averaging an MLB-high 5.82, and Kansas City at just 4.23, which ranks 25th.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MIN/LAA ML (+141)
We went all out yesterday on a big parlay, which rarely hits. Today we’ll just take my two favorite plays, and take away the run line and get plus money on the moneyline parlay. Simple and safe.
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