Plenty of really strong spots to target on Wednesday’s MLB card, with 10 evening games to focus on. Here are my favorite bets to consider.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. NEW YORK METS (7:20 P.M. ET)
ATL ML (-157)
While Steven Matz beat the Braves earlier this season, giving up two runs in six innings, that came at Citi Field, where Matz is undefeated with a 2.25 ERA. With the scene shifting to Atlanta, Matz becomes a completely different pitcher. He has a 5.79 ERA on the road this season, giving up 10 of his 13 home runs, despite pitching fewer innings away from home.
The Mets have the 27th-ranked bullpen, and it’s been an absolute dumpster fire in recent outings. Put that up against Atlanta’s fourth-ranked offense, averaging 5.85 runs per game at home, and the Mets should struggle to keep runs off the board. Max Fried has been a solid pitcher at home, with a 3.54 ERA. The Braves have won six of Fried’s last seven starts, and have a top-10 bullpen behind him, capable of shutting down a below average Mets offense.
CHICAGO CUBS VS. CHICAGO WHITE SOX (8:05 P.M. ET)
CWS ML (+132)
Lucas Giolito has worked his way into the territory fo just blindly betting him anytime he’s on the mound, so at plus-odds, this becomes a no-brainer. Through 13 starts, he has a 10-1 record with a 2.22 ERA, and the White Sox have won 11 of his starts (nine in a row). Giolito’s even better on the road, where he has a 6-0 record and a 1.48 ERA, and he’ll now have the luxury of pitching in a National League park for the first time this season. In the last month, Giolito’s been practically un-hittable, going 5-0 with a 0.95 ERA.
Jon Lester is trending in the opposite direction for the Cubs, with a 7.16 ERA over his last five starts. The Cubs have lost four of his last six outings, with the opposition averaging 5.83 runs per game during that span. The Cubs offense has been significantly worse at home, and both clubs have nearly identical bullpen rankings on the season. This just comes down to Giolito being the most dominant pitcher in baseball, and getting plus-money on him.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS. COLORADO ROCKIES (9:40 P.M. ET)
ARI ML (-143)
Zack Greinke is in a tremendous groove right now, with a 2.65 ERA on the season, which improves at home, where he’s undefeated. Arizona’s won all three of Greinke’s starts in June, including consecutive shutouts — which now has him at over 13 consecutive innings without a run scored. While the Rockies always are highly-ranked offensively, the numbers are juiced by Coors Field — they just barely average 4.5 runs per game away from home. Greinke’s managed just a 3.00 ERA in a pair of starts against the Rockies this season, both coming in Colorado. Expect him to be much improved at home, and be able to pitch deep into this game.
Jon Gray, surprisingly, has been worse away from Coors this season. His ERA jumps to 5.06 in road games, and these Diamondback bats are hitting .313 against him lifetime. The D-Backs rank seventh offensively, scoring 5.2 runs per game themselves, and Colorado’s bullpen’s been on a skid lately. Arizona has advantages offensively, and in starting pitching in this game, while the bullpens are basically a wash.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (10:10 P.M. ET)
LAD -1.5 (-132)
The Dodgers are a dominant 29-9 at home this season, and hold advantages over the Giants in nearly every statistical category. The Dodgers average 5.5 runs per game at home this season, while the Giants have just the 28th-ranked offense in baseball. Rich Hill has a 2.60 ERA on the year, and has already defeated San Francisco this month by a score of 7-2, although it was on the road.
Meanwhile, Drew Pomeranz’s 6.43 ERA skyrockets to 8.87 in his six road starts. He’s faced the Dodgers three times this season, but has only pitched 14 innings (five at Dodger Stadium), and is yet to earn a win. While the Giants own a slight bullpen advantage throughout the season, the Dodgers have had the better bullpen this month. Look for Los Angeles to jump out to an early lead without looking back.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
ATL/CWS/ARI/LAD ML (+786)
Let’s just put all of our bets together, this time using all on the moneyline, and hope for a monster day! Having the White Sox in there at plus-money leads to huge odds on a parlay, so even parlaying them with just one other winner you like makes sense.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.