Summer is here. The weather is heating up, leading to a bunch of high-scoring games. This is leading to inflated totals and has me thinking the DK Sportsbook could be overreacting to recent results.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. SEATTLE MARINERS
ASTROS RUN LINE -1.5 (-165)When the Mariners signed Yusei Kikuchi fom Japan, they believed they had landed a top of the rotation starter. Instead, it appears they got a pitcher who isn’t major league caliber. With an 8.6% swinging strike rate, he doesn’t have the stuff to generate strikeouts in MLB and it’s led to a 5.11 ERA. Earlier in the season, there may have been some optimism that Kikuchi just needed to get acclimated to the United State, but instead he’s gotten worse as hitters have more data on him. He has a 7.45 ERA in June.
The Astros’ offense is finally getting healthy. George Springer and Jose Altuve were recently activated from the IL, making this a really tough matchup for the struggling Kikuchi. Starting for Houston, the ageless Justin Verlander has a 2.67 ERA and the Astros have won 12 of the 17 games he’s started by multiple runs.
COLORADO ROCKIES VS. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
DODGERS MONEYLINE (-162)He’s no longer the best starting pitcher in baseball, but Clayton Kershaw is still more than solid. He’s good enough that he’s being viewed as slightly over the hill and he still has a 3.07 ERA. Even at Coors Field, he’s managed to avoid blowing up with a 4.30 ERA over the past three seasons. Kershaw is a smart enough pitcher that he’s figured out how to mitigate the damage done against him playing at altitude. In addition, the Dodgers have had a ton of success lately against the Rockies. Before Colorado won last night’s game, the Dodgers had won 12 consecutive games in this rivalry.
Related Bet: DODGERS VS. ROCKIES RUN TOTAL
UNDER 12.5 RUNS (-113)This total is an overreaction to recent high-scoring games at Coors Field. Not only has Kershaw been OK in Colorado, but Jon Gray is also a talented pitcher. Denver will always slightly inflate numbers, but Gray has managed a 3.47 ERA at home this season. Im looking past the first two games of this series and focusing on the quality of pitchers for tonight’s game.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
BRANDON WOODRUFF OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (-121)Woodruff has had a number of big fantasy games this season and it’s because of how great of a strikeout pitcher he’s become. He’s prone to allowing runs, but that doesn’t matter for this bet. Woodruff has upped his swinging strike rate to 11.8% and is whiffing 10.88 hitters per nine innings. At home, the strikeouts go up a notch and Woodruff is generating 12.55 K/9. He has at least seven strikeouts in five straight home starts and had 10 Ks in his last meeting against the Pirates.
ARIZONA DIAMONBACKS VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
DIAMONDBACKS MONEYLINE (-162)After missing most of last season, Drew Pomeranz is healthy and the results aren’t great. He has a 6.79 ERA and he walks 4.32 hitters per nine innings, which mitigates the benefit of playing in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco. Against lefties, the Diamondbacks have been one of the best offenses in baseball. They have a 119 wRC+ against southpaws, and scored five runs in less than three innings earlier in the season against Pomeranz.
Still a high-end starting pitcher, Zack Greinke has a 3.08 ERA and has one of the easiest matchups possible. The Giants have the second lowest scoring offense in the National League and an 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. San Francisco has the second worst record in the NL
PARLAY OF THE DAY
STL/HOU MONEYLINES (+176)With Verlander going up against Kikuchi, the Astros are the safest moneyline bet on the slate and the biggest favorite for good reason. Betting the Cardinals at plus odds is based on a concern regarding possible fatigue for Chris Paddack. His rookie season got off to a great start, although it looks like he’s hit a wall lately. The Padres sent him down to the minor leagues to get extra rest and he has a 6.28 ERA in June. His ERA has risen each month this season, giving me reason to think fading him is a good course of action until he gets back on track.
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