The sports world is abuzz with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George news, but there are still baseball games to be played. After checking out the new NBA Championship odds, take a look at my favorite bets for tonight’s MLB games.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. CHICAGO CUBS
WHITE SOX MONEYLINE (+105)In a matchup of the north side against the south side, the White Sox have a significant pitching advantage. After struggling to start his career, Lucas Giolito is living up to his former promise as a top pitching prospect. He has a 2.72 ERA and is the second betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young at plus-450 odds. Giolito has harassed his stuff, cutting down his walk rate while upping his K rate. The White Sox are at home and have been better than expected this season. They are just two games below .500 and have a 103 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. The Cubs have a 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so there isn’t much of a difference between the quality of offenses.
He’s still a serviceable pitcher although Jon Lester is on the downside of his career. Lester has a 4.20 FIP and his results have trended down throughout the season. His ERA has gone up in each month and he finished June with a 4.33 ERA. Like I said, serviceable, but he isn’t the same quality of pitcher as Giolito. Add in that the White Sox are home and the difference in offenses in minimal relative to the handedness of the starters, I think the wrong team is favored.
NEW YORK METS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
OVER 9 RUNS (-103)Coming into the season, this would be a great pitching matchup on paper. Jake Arrieta vs. Noah Syndergaard is a game of former aces. Thor is still young and has the better chance of turning around his season, but Arrieta looks washed. Not only is his 4.43 ERA the worst since his days in Baltimore, but the underlying numbers suggest he should be allowing more runs. Arrieta has a 5.15 FIP and the only thing saving him is a strand rate 5% higher than his career average. In addition, whenever looking at the total for a game involving the Mets, the bullpen has to be considered. The New York bullpen has a 5.70 ERA, the third highest in baseball.
Related Bet: METS VS. PHILLIESMETS MONEYLINE (-148)
Even though he is not the same pitcher he once was, Syndergaard is better than Arrieta. While both are struggling, there is a reason to suggest that Thor has been a bit unlucky. He has a 4.56 ERA and a 3.73 ERA. As Arrieta is being assisted by a high strand rate, Syndergaard is seeing the opposite effect. His 66% strand rate is one of the worst in baseball and he should benefit from better sequencing in the future.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS. COLORADO ROCKIES
UNDER 8 RUNS (-112)The Rockies’ offense falls apart in a big way on the road. They appear to be one of the higher scoring offenses if only looking at runs per game, but it’s almost entirely a product of playing at Coors Field. Away from home, the Rockies’ 68 wRC+ is the worst in baseball. We also have two quality pitcher on the mound in Jon Gray and Robbie Ray and the Arizona offense is weaker against right-handed pitching. The top Dbacks’ hitters are stronger against southpaws, leading the team to have an 89 wRC+ against righties.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
GIANTS MONEYLINE (-127)He’s on the downside of his career although Bumgarner has still been successful in the pitcher-friendly confines of San Francisco. He as a 3.59 ERA at home and the Cardinals’ offense is slightly below-average with a 97 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Another benefit is that Bumgarner and the Giants are playing some of their best baseball of the season. MadBum has scored over 30 DKFP in consecutive outings, while San Fran has won four of its last five games.
After a strong 2018 season coming back from overseas, Miles Mikolas had appeared to reinvent himself. With a different pitch mix, he finished with a 2.83 ERA. A year later, it appears the book is out on Mikolas and hitters have caught up. His ERA is up to 4.34 and his HR/FB rate has nearly doubled.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
LAD/HOU MONEYLINES (+126)The safest parlay piece of the night is the Astros. Their offense is finally getting healthy and they send their second ace to the mound in Gerrit Cole. With George Springer and Jose Altuve now activated from the IL, Houston has won five of its last six games. Starting for the Angels, Andrew Heaney has yet to find his groove after an injury delayed the start of his season. He has a 5.40 ERA and it doesn’t seem likely he will turn around his season against one of the toughest offenses in baseball.
The best team in the National League, the Dodgers hold a 14.5 game lead in the NL West. Chris Paddack looks like a future ace and he’s had a great first half of the season for the Padres, but it looks like he’s hit a rookie wall. His 4.87 ERA in June is by far his worst month of the season and he was briefly sent to the minor leagues to get a breather. Paddack will likely benefit from time off during the All-Star break.
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