Domingo German

Article plays went 8-2 last week with a lot of hits for plus-money, including a pair of +200 or better spots on Thursday. One of those plays is available again on Wednesday’s MLB card, and could be worth entertaining.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Lead After 5 Innings: MIA (+225)

While Miami wound up losing the game at home last Thursday, Sandy Alcantara out-pitched Stephen Strasburg, and was able to take a 4-1 lead through five innings. With the scenery shifting to Washington, we get even better odds on the same bet. Strasburg’a 4-1 record in June is deceiving, as he’s gotten plenty of run support. He has a 5.70 ERA in those five starts, including some struggles with the Marlins.

Alcantara had been elite this month, and is now 4-1-1 in the first five innings of his last six starts. While he was able to dominate for five innings against the Nationals, he got hit hard in the sixth inning, and wound up letting in six runs by the time his outing came to a close. That inning brought his ERA in the month of June up almost two runs, but it was 1.71 entering Thursday’s start. Alcantara has shown the ability to come undone in his starts, but he also showed the potential to get off to great starts. That’s why we’ll keep this one to a first five inning play once again, even with how bad Washington’s bullpen has been.


Team Total: MIA OVER 3.5 (-107)
Washington’s bullpen does have plenty to do with this play, though. Ranking dead last in baseball with a 6.28 ERA, Miami’s offense is being undervalued in this game. I mentioned Strasburg’s June ERA, along with the four earned runs in his last start in Miami. The Marlins have scored four or more runs in nine of their last 13 contests, but their team totals constantly remain among the lowest on the slate.


NYY (-150)

Because Domingo German is coming off the IL, and Jason Vargas (2.70 ERA in five starts in June) is pitching so well right now, I think the price on this game isn’t high enough to fade the Yankees. Laying -150 juice is probably the most I’d want to go without beginning to look at the run line, but this should be a bounce-back spot for the Yanks after a 4-2 loss in the series opener.

I don’t have any numbers to diminish Vargas, but it’s pretty rare to see him pitch more than six innings — which should mean at least three innings of this horrific Mets bullpen. The Mets pen has now plummeted all the way to 28th in the majors, and has been as bad as you could imagine along the way. This Yankees offense averages 6.34 runs per game on the road, going for double-digit runs in five of its last 11 games. German had three rough starts before landing on the IL, but prior to that, had a 2.60 ERA through his first 10 games of the season. The Yankees won nine of those 10 games, so while there’s a little concern about German’s hip, it’s also driving the price down here. Assuming he has his health, I’m expecting a dominant return.


Total Runs First 5 Innings: UNDER 4.5 (-114)

This one’s probably my favorite spot on Wednesday’s card, with a couple of really hot pitchers going against each other at Dodger Stadium. I’m willing to completely write off the seven runs Walker Buehler gave up in his last start at Coors Field, and just concentrate on the numbers leading up to it. Buehler had previously surrendered just three earned runs (all solo home runs) in his four starts in June (31 total innings).

Merrill Kelly has also found his stride this season, with a 2.75 ERA this month, giving up just 12 earned runs in six starts (nearly 40 innings). Four of those five starts stayed under 4.5 runs in the first five innings, and the overs were hit because the Diamondbacks were able to score five runs on offense for the two overs hit. Tossing out the Coors start, Buehler’s scores haven’t even been close to hitting this number. One of those outings was a 3-1 win for the Dodgers in Arizona, where the first five innings also stayed under 4.5 runs.


BOS/LAD ML (-114)

Pretty square parlay here, not even paying out even money. There isn’t much I like to parlay on this slate, so we’ll go with the two strongest pitching spots by far and see if we can grind out what pretty much amounts to a single play.

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