We’ve got an eight-game MLB card on Wednesday evening, with some enticing potential pitching duels. Here are the spots I’m focused, highlighted by a big starting pitching advantage for the Nationals, on paper.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS. COLORADO ROCKIES (7:05 P.M. ET)
Lead after 5 innings: WAS (-157)
This one features a huge starting pitching advantage for Washington, with Patrick Corbin at home against Kyle Freeland. Freeland’s been brutal this season, with a 7.62 ERA, and an 11.25 ERA since the All-Star break. Those two post-break starts are Freeland’s only appearances since May, and he’s given up 10 runs in eight innings — five runs in four innings each time.
Corbin’s been spectacular at home this season, with a 1.84 ERA in nine starts. He also fared well against the Rockies at Coors Field earlier in the year, allowing two earned runs in six innings in a win. The Nats are a strong bet overall, but focusing just on the first five innings has the most edge.
Related Bet: WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS. COLORADO ROCKIESWAS Team Total: OVER 5.5 (-108)
As mentioned, Freeland’s given up five runs in four innings by himself in each of his past two starts. The Rockies also suddenly have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and had to burn plenty of arms in an 11-1 loss Tuesday. Washington has a .321 batting average against Freeland and should continue to rack up some runs early.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. CLEVELAND INDIANS (7:07 P.M. ET)
The Indians dropped a tough one in extra innings Tuesday, but we get them at a really cheap price with Shane Bieber facing Marcus Stroman. Stroman’s one of the hottest names on the trade market but just hasn’t gotten many wins for the Jays. He’s 6-10 overall, with a 2-6 record at home, along with a 3.47 ERA. Stroman also lost to Cleveland earlier in the season, giving up three runs in six innings.
Bieber, on the other hand, thrives on the road — he’s 6-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 10 outings (nine starts). He allowed two runs in six innings in a win over Toronto earlier in the season but has been a little shaky coming out of the break. Nonetheless, Cleveland still has found a way to win Bieber’s past four starts and has big advantages both offensively and in the bullpen in this game.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. MIAMI MARLINS (8:10 P.M. ET)
Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching well lately, but he still has a 6.16 ERA at home this season. Zac Gallen is having a very strong rookie season for Miami — particularly on the road, with a 2.92 ERA. He also has picked up steam since the break, with a 1.69 ERA in his past two starts.
This could be an ugly one for offense — both teams rank in the bottom three in runs per game — but the Marlins have a clear advantage on the mound. If you want to isolate the starting pitching matchup, betting the first five innings is another option. The Marlins earned a 5-1 win against the White Sox on Tuesday, and Caleb Smith helped out the bullpen by going seven innings.
MINNESOTA TWINS VS. NEW YORK YANKEES (8:10 P.M. ET)
After earning a victory to begin the series against the Yankees, the Twins lost a wild 14-12 game Tuesday in extras. J.A. Happ lost to the Twins earlier in the year, giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings of an eventual 7-3 defeat.
Jake Odorizzi was the opposing starting pitcher for that game, and we’ll get the same matchup in this one. Odorizzi went six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits in the process. Odorizzi also has been sensational at home this season, with a 6-0 record and 2.56 ERA in nine starts. These are two of the top offenses in baseball, so we should get some runs here, but the Twins might have an advantage in limiting the Yankees a bit more, yet check in at plus money.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MIN/MIA/CLE ML (+619)
Let’s swing for the fences here. Tossing together a couple small underdogs with the Indians creates a monster payout. Obviously this is something you want to play small, but it has plenty of upside.
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