Typically, Saturdays have games spread throughout the day. There are a few day games, but most of the games are being played tonight. This gives us plenty of spots to bet on this evening.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
TAMPA BAY RAYS VS. CHICAGO WHITE SOX
UNDER 8.5 TOTAL RUNS (-118)Lucas Giolito hasn’t been quite as sharp over his past few starts as he was earlier in the season. He has an 8.10 ERA in his two July starts, but a lot of this can be chalked up to bad luck. For the month, Giolito has a 3.02 FIP and has been crushed by bad sequencing. More than half of the runners reaching base are scoring against him and the issue is compounded by a .367 BABIP. He is still striking out a hitter per inning during July, so he should get back to his early season dominance sooner rather than later. Pitching on the road shouldn’t be an issue for Giolito since he has a 2.91 ERA away from home this season.
Starting for the Rays, Ryan Yarborough has been mediocre with a 4.26 ERA, but he’s been solid lately. He’s allowed one or fewer earned runs in five straight outings. Even though some of these appearances came in long relief, he pitched at least three innings in all of these games. The White Sox’ offense has struggled since the All-Star break with an 83 wRC+.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS. BOSTON RED SOX
ORIOLES MONEYLINE (+195)The Red Sox should win this game, but the odds are a bit too wide. Baltimore is at home and Rick Porcello has been awful for the Sox this season. Arguably the worst pitcher to ever win a Cy Young, Porcello’s ERA is at 5.37 with a career-high walk rate. Not only have his walks gone up, but he’s striking out the least amount of hitters since 2014. He used to be a pitch to contact guy, but found ways to increase his swinging strike rate in recent seasons. Down to a 7.7% swing and miss rate, Porcello hasn’t shown the tools to get out major league hitters this season. This should be a high-scoring game and is much closer to a coin flip than the numbers indicate.
Related Bet: MATCHUP
ORIOLES TOTAL RUNS OVER 4.5 (-110)The Orioles stink, but so does Porcello. We have a case of a stoppable force against a movable object. With scoring and homers up in today’s baseball, I tend to side with the offenses in these situations. At least in the last couple of games, the Orioles’ offense has been less than bad. They have won two games in a row and scored 20 runs in those games. As stupid as this may sound, Baltimore is playing one of its best stretches of the season with wins in six of the last 11 games.
CINCINATTI REDS VS. ST.LOUIS CARDINALS
REDS MONEYLINE (-137)Not only are the Reds at home, but they have a pretty significant advantage in starting pitchers. Luis Castillo has bounced back from a rough 2018 season with a 2.41 ERA. Walks can be an issue, but he manages to get himself out of trouble by striking out 10.77 hitters per nine innings. Swing and misses are a great way for pitchers to overcome the homer happy ways of the MLB in 2019. In previous seasons, inconsistency was an issue for Castillo, but he rarely has bad starts anymore. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 19 starts.
Starting for the Cardinals, Miles Mikolas has regressed in a big way from last season. He has a 4.15 ERA and has been killed by long balls. Guys who pitch to contact are the ones getting hurt the most by the rise in homers. Pitchers like Castillo who are capable of generating strikeouts have been less impacted. The stat that has me leaning toward the Reds the most in this game is the struggles of Mikolas on the road. He has a 7.40 ERA away from St. Louis this season.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. TEXAS RANGERS
OVER 10.5 TOTAL RUNS (-105)I am expecting this be a game filled with fireworks. Now with a healthy lineup, the Astros have a 131 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Outside of the Yankees, I think Houston has the best lineup in baseball. They get a fairly easy matchup tonight against Ariel Jurado, who has a 4.63 ERA. Even though his ERA doesn’t look great, it should probably be worse. His numbers are suppressed since half his appearances have come as a reliever. In relief, he’s pitched well with a 1.17 ERA, but he has a 5.60 ERA as a starter. Texas is probably better off with Jurado as a reliever, however he’s forced to start because of a lack of starting pitching depth.
There isn’t a ton of information on Astros starter Jose Urquidy. He was an unranked prospect coming into the season and he had an ERA over 4.00 in the minor leagues. Despite this, the Astros have called on him to make spot starts and the results have been poor. He has a 10.50 ERA in his two starts and there isn’t much reason to think he will turn it around given a lack of success in the lower levels of baseball.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
ATL/LAD MONEYLINES (+112)These are the two teams I feel most confident in picking up wins with aces on the mound. The Dodgers are at home, taking on the Marlins with Clayton Kershaw as the starter. The Dodgers have the best record in the National League and the Marlins have the worst record in the National League. For the Braves, Mike Soroka is having a breakout season. He’s a ground ball pitcher finding success by limiting hard contact. His 20.8% soft contact rate makes him one of the best pitchers in baseball at creating weak contact. This lets him pitch deep into games and he’s given up three or less earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts.
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