Baseball is back after some time off for the All-Star break. We have another Saturday full of games and an 11-game slate of night games to look at.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


RAYS -1.5 (-127)

This is the second game of the doubleheader between the Rays and Orioles. For the nightcap, it is hard to not strongly favor the Rays. Charlie Morton has been extremely consistent and is one of the leading candidates to win the AL Cy Young at 600 odds. The only pitchers with shorter odds than him are Justin Verlander (+170) and Gerrit Cole (+350). Morton is having the best season of his career with a 2.32 ERA and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 17 of his 19 starts. In his only start against the Orioles, he struck out 12 in seven innings and scored 38.8 DKFP. Baltimore has an 83 wRC against right-handed pitching and has the worst record in baseball.

At first glance, John Means looks decent with a 2.50 ERA, but regression is coming. He’s benefited from a lot of good luck with a .252 BABIP and an 81.1% strand rate. Not only are these numbers far out of whack with the major league average, but these are also out of line with the numbers Means accumulated in the minor leagues. He was typically over a .300 BABIP with a strand rate under 70%. Means has a 5.15 xFIP and he should allow way more runs in the second half of the season.



What would the line on a pitching matchup between Trevor Bauer and Jake Odorizzi in Cleveland have been at the start of the year? Bauer has been a bit of a disappointment. I thought he would be in the Cy Young mix this season and he’s regressed a bit from last season’s breakout performance. On the bright side, it appears he’s getting back on track. Bauer finished June with a 3.06 ERA, rallying back from an awful 5.50 ERA in May. While he probably won’t be the same pitcher who had a 2.21 ERA last season, Bauer is trending up to start the second half of the season.

Odorizzi is having a breakout season nobody saw coming. After a career-worst 4.49 ERA in 2018, he has a career-best 3.15 ERA this season. He’s made tangible changes, upping his strikeout rate and cutting down his walk rate are easy ways to lower runs allowed, but his 4.60 xFIP implies he should be worse after the All Star break. He’s been a bit lucky with a 2.68 BABIP and it’s also worth noting this is a road game for him. While his overall numbers are great for the season, Odorizzi has had some struggles away from home with a 4.17 ERA.



Arguably, the best source of value this season has been betting against Chris Sale. An elite pitcher when he’s on, Sale has been prone to blow ups this season and his inconsistencies don’t warrant the Red Sox being a massive favorite every time he toes the rubber. Like most pitchers, his home run totals are way up and 16.8% HR/FB rate is nearly double his rate from last season. This has led to a career high 4.04 ERA and a 3-8 record. With a 4.27 ERA, Sale has been worse at Fenway than on the road and he draws a tough matchup against the Dodgers. LA has a 105 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and the best record in the National League.



The line should be a bit wider in this game. Madison Bumgarner still holds name value, but at best he’s an average pitcher at this point in his career. If not for making half his starts in the pitcher-friendly environment of San Francisco then his ERA might be ugly. On the road, he has a 4.60 ERA and he doesn’t get much help from his offense. The Giants have an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and the Brewers offense has a 99 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, making them the much more potent bats in this game. After an injury plagued 2018 season, Zach Davies has bounced back with a 3.07 ERA. While he should see some regression, it is worth noting that he’s historically been a pitcher to outperform his peripheral stats. Davies does well at limiting hard contact and the Giants aren’t likely the team to punish him since they are the fifth-lowest scoring team in baseball.



I am looking to ride two of the better pitchers in the American League tonight. Morton should have his way with a struggling Orioles’ offense while Bauer is poised for improvement in the second half of the season. As a future bet, the odds on Morton (+600) look good to win the AL Cy Young. He isn’t showing signs of slowing down and has a sizable ERA advantage over the two Astros’ aces ahead of him in the Cy Young odds.

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