Wednesday’s MLB card is thin, with just five games in the evening. It’s packed with afternoon games, though, so I’ll squeeze in my favorite play of the day, and try and find some creative plays for this evening’s slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (3:10 P.M. ET)
LAD (-129)This is one of the cheaper prices we’ll see all season on the Dodgers at home, where they’re 45-15. Dustin May will make his second MLB start, losing to the Padres in his debut, but only getting two runs in support. May had a 3.38 ERA in the minors this season, and will face a Cardinals offense that ranks just 24th in runs per game, right below San Diego.
Jack Flaherty’s been money for the Cards at home this season, but that changes once you get him on the road. His ERA jumps from 2.89 to 5.44 away from St. Louis, and this price is reflecting the the 1.11 ERA Flaherty’s posted since the All-Star break — but three of those starts came at home. The bullpens both rank in the top 10 on the season, but the Dodgers have a huge advantage offensively, ranking 20 spots ahead of the Cards, and with plenty of lefty bats to smash the righty starter.
SEATTLE MARINERS VS. SAN DIEGO PADRES (6:40 P.M. ET)
OVER 9.5 (-104)A pair of struggling lefties in Yusei Kikuchi and Joey Lucchesi will start in Seattle in this one, facing a pair of lineups filled with RHBs that smash LHPs. Kikuchi has an 8.24 ERA since the break, while Lucchesi’s has risen to 5.57 post-break. The Mariners have been the top OVER team this season, with overs connecting in more than 66% of their games.
The starters should allow their fair share of runs in the early going, but don’t expect the bullpens to settle in well either. San Diego’s pen ranks 19th overall, and Seattle’s ranks just 25th. In particular, the Padres are in a strong spot here, with tons of RHBs to stack the top of the order against an unraveling Kikuchi. If you want to look at them from a moneyline, or team total perspective, there’s some value there as well.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (7:05 P.M. ET)
OVER 9.5 (-110)I’m not often looking at overs in Pittsburgh, but this is a spot where pitching should be bad enough to get the runs we need. Drew Pomeranz has only pitched two innings since being shipped to Milwaukee, and should serve as the opener in this one — he faced the Pirates on Monday in a game the Brewers won 9-7. Prior to his arrival, Pomeranz had a 5.68 ERA, and will hand things off to the 18th-ranked bullpen in baseball.
Trevor Williams has fallen apart since his strong start to the year, and has a 5.40 ERA in four starts since the break. Four of Williams’ five starts since the start of July have topped 9.5 runs. The Pirates have an even worse bullpen, ranking 22nd on the season, and have been particularly poor since the break. During this current five-game homestand at PNC Park, four of five games have gone over 9.5 runs.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (9:40 P.M. ET)
ARI (-141)Zac Gallen will make his debut for the Diamondbacks, going against another Trade Deadline acquisition in Jason Vargas and the Phillies. Vargas was relatively successful in his team debut, giving up two runs in 6 1/3 innings, but it was an eventual 4-3 loss to the lowly White Sox.
Gallen was in the midst of a terrific rookie season for the Marlins, making for a head-scratching trade when Miami opted to move on. Gallen has a 2.72 ERA, and while he wasn’t racking up wins with Miami, he’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in seven career starts. Arizona’s ninth-ranked offense and 16th-ranked bullpen also have advantages over Philly, which ranks 16th and 23rd, respectively.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Stick to single plays, this just isn’t a card with many edges
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