Miami Marlins v Tampa Bay Rays

Edwin Jackson stood in our way of a perfect day for article plays Wednesday, which wasn’t a good feeling. But 3-1 still was profitable, even if you lost on the parlay as well. Here’s what stands out on Thursday’s MLB card.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Total Runs – First 3 Innings: UNDER 2.5 (-139)

We’ve got a serious pitching duel in Miami on Thursday afternoon, with Walker Buehler going against Caleb Smith. You can get plus money on UNDER 3.5 runs in the first five innings, but the first three innings intrigues me more. You have to lay some juice, but if these guys are on, they might have to just go through the order once — and see a couple of bats at the top of the order a second time — to win this bet.

Buehler went seven shutout innings against the Marlins earlier in the year, allowing five hits, and has a 1.89 ERA since the All-Star break. Miami is obviously one of the worst offenses in baseball and should help do its part to keep this one low scoring. Smith’s coming off his worst start of the season, giving up six runs to the Braves in less than five innings. I’ll take him to bounce back and pitch like the guy we saw allow just 13 earned runs in his previous six starts dating back to the start of July.


Moneyline – First 5 Innings: CIN (-159)

Sonny Gray’s been spectacular since the break with a 1.93 ERA in six starts, including 13 scoreless innings in two starts in August (against the Braves and Cubs). Michael Wacha just consistently has been bad, with his 5.54 season-long ERA a good indication of his splits pre/post break, and home/road.

The Cardinals have been the worst offense in baseball this month, particularly against RHPs — Brad Keller took a no-hitter into the sixth inning against them Wednesday, helping us cash that under. Cincinnati has been one of the hotter offenses since the break and face the far inferior starter. We’ll keep it to the first five here, since the St. Louis bullpen has been lights out recently.


Moneyline – First 5 Innings: ARI (-152)

Arizona has a huge advantage over San Francisco at starting pitcher and offense in this game. That give us another first five inning line to take advantage of, with the Diamondbacks playing at home as well. Alex Young has regressed some since the break but still has been a terrific arm for Arizona. He has a 3.32 ERA overall this year and limited San Francisco to five hits and one run in five innings in his first career start.

Dereck Rodriguez has struggled in 19 appearances this season (10 starts), with a 5.32 ERA. He’s been rocked by the D-Backs in four bullpen appearances this year, giving up seven hits and four runs. His only outing in August was one of his worst of 2019, giving up seven runs to the Phillies in three innings. Arizona’s offense ranks eighth, while San Francisco’s ranks 27th.


UNDER 10 (-114)

Totals on the Astros are inflated after a couple of surprising high-scoring losses to the White Sox. The scene is shifting to a strong under spot, with a couple of good pitchers and bullpens facing off in a pitcher’s park in Oakland.

Mike Fiers has been on fire following a terrible April, continuing to improve each month — a 1.79 ERA since the break and a 0.71 ERA in August. If you remove the 9-8 loss Fiers had against the Astros in April, his past two outings against them have been a 3-2 loss and a 4-3 win. Aaron Sanchez has been unbelievable since Houston acquired him, allowing just one run in 11 innings. Both of these bullpens rank in the top 10.



There really aren’t any big enough favorites to safely make a parlay. I don’t want to make a mistake like I did yesterday on SEA/LAD, so I’d just play straight bets on this card. If you really feel the need to make a parlay, pick your favorite two plays from above.

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