Betting season is heating up. We have another Saturday night full of baseball games and there are preseason football games to bet on as well. You can find all the odds at https://sportsbook.draftkings.com.
MIAMI MARLINS VS. ATLANTA BRAVES
MIKE SOROKA TO RECORD A WIN (-106)The Braves are one of the biggest favorites on the slate at -220. Those odds are a bit wide for me and I prefer betting on Soroka to come away with the win. He’s having a breakout season for the Braves and has a solid 10-2 record because of how consistently he churns out quality starts. Soroka has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 17 of his 20 starts on the season. In two starts against the Marlins, he’s pitched a total of 15 innings and only given up one earned run. It shouldn’t take much run support from the Braves offense to earn their starting pitcher the win and they are facing Sandy Alcantara who has a 7.09 ERA since the All-Star break.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS. HOUSTON ASTROS
ORIOLES OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (-150)The first start for Aaron Sanchez with the Astros was a doozy. He pitched six no-hit innings and the bullpen did their part to finish off the combined no-no. I think this recency bias is causing the Orioles’ team total to be a bit too low. Without a doubt, the Astros have worked magic with pitchers, but I can’t totally overlook how much Sanchez struggled before the trade. Even with his last stellar outing, his ERA for the season is 5.76. Even though the Orioles offense isn’t great, they score 4.3 runs per game. Camden Yards has been an extreme hitter’s park this season, making me feel comfortable that Baltimore can put up at least four runs against a pitcher who struggled all season with the exception being his last outing. The last start for Sanchez shouldn’t hold more weight in his evaluation than his previous 23.
MINNESOTA TWINS VS. CLEVELAND INDIANS
TWINS MONEYLINE (-152)At one point, the Indians were 11 1/2 games behind the Twins in the standings. After winning yesterday’s game, these two teams are knotted atop the AL Central. All the momentum appears to be with Cleveland, however none of this really matters to me. There is an old baseball adage that momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher and the Twins have a massive advantage in today’s pitching matchup. For the Indians, Adam Plutko is not having a great season. He has a 4.55 ERA and the underlying numbers indicate he should be giving up more runs. Plutko has a 5.84 FIP and has limited the amount the runs allowed largely based on luck. He has a .244 BABIP, which is certain to regress. For the Twins, Jake Odorizzi has been solid. He has a 3.61 ERA and held the Indians to one run in each of his first starts against them this season.
NEW YORK METS VS. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
METS MONEYLINE (-124)The Mets were considered dead at the trade deadline. Assumed to be sellers, the only question seemed to be how many guys would be moved and what could they get in return for pieces like Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Instead, the Mets ended up as buyers, adding Marcus Stroman and have won seven games in a row to crawl back into the playoff picture. Starting tonight, Thor appears to have gotten past his early season struggles. His slider didn’t work for him earlier in the year but now he has it back on point. This has helped Syndergaard get back on track and he is sporting a 1.78 ERA since the All-Star break. He faces another marquee starter in Patrick Corbin, although he’s struggled on the road with a 5.32 ERA away from Washington. This lines up well for the Mets since they are first in the National League with a 116 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
SD/LAD MONEYLINES (+125)Both the Dodgers and Padres have massive pitching advantages tonight. When starting at home, Chris Paddack has been a force for the Padres. He has a 2.28 ERA in San Diego and the Rockies offense is ranked 29th with a 71 wRC+ on the road. Not only is his matchup strong, he’s opposed by Chi Chi Gonzalez who has no business being a major league pitcher. He has a 5.95 ERA and had a 6.10 ERA in Triple-A.
Playing at home, the Dodgers are facing Alex Young. Even though he has a 2.60 ERA, regression is certainly coming. He had a 6.09 ERA in the minor leagues this season and is getting by in the big leagues because of a .182 BABIP. The Dodgers are the second-highest scoring team in the National League, making this the perfect spot for regression.
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