A short slate with Coors Field always is going to present some issues about whether you should follow or fade the chalk. On this particular slate, I think the chalk is the right way to go with the bats and that you should be different at pitcher, and I’m going to give you some of my favorite places to attack on this six-game afternoon slate. Let’s get started.
StudSonny Gray, CIN at CHC, $10,200– Gray is having a career year with the Reds, and his optimized pitch usage is seeing incredible results. He is coming off a gem thrown in Coors and will play in Wrigley against a struggling Cubs squad with injuries dampening the order. He’s well deserving of the price and should be a priority if you have the cash.
Other Options — Yu Darvish ($9,400)
ValueHomer Bailey, OAK vs. SEA, $7,000 — Bailey was scratched from his last start for the Royals as he was traded to the Athletics and will have his first game with the squad against the Mariners, who are slumping badly. Bailey has moderately strong peripherals with a 7+ K/9 and a SIERA of just around 4.25, and although you aren’t getting a big discount, he is priced appropriately and is a solid play at SP2.
Other Options — Jason Vargas ($6,500)
StudMitch Garver, MIN vs. NYM, $5,400 — Through the month of July, Garver has three games with 10+ DKFP and no zero fantasy point outcomes in five games as he continues his campaign as a top catcher in fantasy. He faces Jason Vargas ($6,500) at home and has the platoon advantage, so his 9.7 DKFP per game is well worth paying up for.
Other Options — Buster Posey ($4,400)
ValueChris Herrmann, OAK vs. SEA, $3,400 — Herrmann has been a bit of a mixed bag since returning from injury with three games of solid production and three games of zero fantasy points. He has a decent spot here against Tommy Milone ($7,600), who will come in after an opener, and with a bad Mariners bullpen behind him it could spell solid opportunity for a catcher on the lower end of the pricing spectrum.
Other Options — Matt Wieters ($3,300)
FIRST BASEDaniel Murphy, COL vs. SF, $4,900 — The Rockies are in the best spot on this slate and it’s not really close, so we are going to put a lot of focus there. Murphy has been phenomenal in the past five games with two 20+ DKFP and three 10+ outputs and will face a rookie pitcher that has shown serious flaws. Murphy is slightly underpriced, and I gladly will pay his premium in this matchup.
Other Options — Freddie Freeman ($5,600), Pete Alonso ($5,100)
ValueJoey Votto, CIN at CHC, $3,300 — Although he’s not the fearsome hitter he once was, there is still a lot to like about Votto — especially for such a bargain. The matchup with an inconsistent starting pitcher will help his floor, and with his price where it is, he doesn’t have to do much outside of get on base and score a run to make you happy. There’s little opportunity cost here and it saves a lot of salary.
Other Options — C.J. Cron ($3,700)
StudOzzie Albies, ATL at MIL, $4,800 — The biggest issue with taking Albies is his floor is bad with strikeout issues and plenty of games with zero fantasy points, but in all games with more than zero, he has 8+ in all but one, which shows his fantastic median output. He will face a pitcher with home run concerns in a great park, and as a switch-hitter, he is immune to bullpen platoon switching, all of which justifies him as a great stud to pay for.
Other Options —Ryan McMahon ($4,700)
ValueJoe Panik, SF at COL, $3,700 — This is just a play to take advantage of a price inefficiency as we have a decent hitter playing in Coors and he is less than $4,000. Panik generally doesn’t have a lot of upside, but playing in the best offensive environment in the league boosts everyone’s ceiling, making him at least as good of a play as those around him in price. His spot in the order is lame, but he is a great value based on price alone.
Other Options — Derek Dietrich ($3,500)
StudNolan Arenado, COL vs. SF, $5,300 — It’s been rough sledding for Arenado in this homestand with just less than 35 total DKFP across six games and just one game above 10 DKFP, but I think that turns around today. The Giants’ rookie pitcher is going to struggle a lot with his first taste of Coors, and we are getting a recency bias discount on the Rockies’ best player. Let’s build around him.
Other Options — Josh Donaldson ($5,200)
ValueKyle Seager, SEA at OAK, $3,000 — Seager came off the IL strong but has gone through some rough cold streaks and now his price is painfully low. He still has solid power at this point in his career and will face off with Homer Bailey (7,000) in his first start with the Athletics. Bailey has been good but does struggle with home runs, and I don’t mind paying a low cost for a cheap one-off like Seager.
Other Options — Jung Ho Kang ($3,400)
StudDansby Swanson, ATL at MIL, $5,000 — Swanson has evolved into one of the best hitters on a stacked Braves squad and will get a chance to add to his 2019 numbers against a bad SP in a great park. His .822 OPS is more than respectable, and with five recent games of 10+ DKFP, I like him to continue this string of success as a pay up target.
Other Options — Trevor Story ($5,500)
ValueOrlando Arcia, MIL vs. ATL, $3,100 — This is the definition of a boom-or-bust play, but Arcia has one of the better hitting environments and has shown the ability to hit more than 20 DKFP when given the right opportunity. Facing Dallas Keuchel ($8,300) is a tough spot, but without the groundball rate from years past, it’s entirely possible to get good hits against him, so paying a low price for an upside play appeals to me here.
Other Options — Jose Iglesias ($2,800)
StudCharlie Blackmon, COL vs. SF, $5,800 — The final piece of the Rockies puzzle for me is Blackmon, who is enduring a similar slump to Arenado. I’m ignoring the recent lack of production here because he gets a platoon advantage against the worst pitcher on the slate, and I’m confident he will turn it around and get back on track. Nothing is a guarantee in DFS, but I think Blackmon is a terrific play.
Other Options — Christian Yelich ($5,700)
ValueJesse Winker, CIN at CHC, $3,500 — As mentioned earlier with Votto, it’s always a good idea to attack an inconsistent pitcher, especially on a slate with so few realistic options. I like Winker with the platoon advantage going up against Yu Darvish ($9,400), who people likely will overrate based on his most recent game. Averaging 6.2 DKFP in 2019, Winker deserves a bit higher salary, and I like him a lot here.
Other Options — Dexter Fowler ($3,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.