After a Thursday night off and some slight mourning about the Reds stack from Wednesday, we are back at it again. There are 10 games on the 7:05 slate tonight, which means we have a lot of action to choose from. Hopefully we can see some repeat 12 and 14 run scoring like we did from the Giants and Cubs last night.
The Cubs put up 14 runs yesterday against the Diamondbacks. With a team-wOBA of .316 and a team-ISO of .160, the Cubs will be looking to do the same again today. This game is projected at 9.5 runs with the Cubs heavily favored (-133). Arizona starter Robbie Ray is coming off of a 1.35 WHIP last season and has an OPS of .723 against LHB. The Cubs are loaded with lefties/switch guys at the top of the lineup and should tee off on Ray tonight. I love a 1-4 stack tonight, and really like Anthony Rizzo on the evening.
Chase Anderson struggles to strike guys out, only averaging 6 per game last season. He has an OPS of .761 against RHP and .746 against LHB. Miller Park isn’t bad for batters, and guys like Carlos Correa and Colby Rasmus are in play tonight. The Astros will face Anderson with a Team-wOBA of .327 and a Team-ISO of .187, both highly in the favor of the ‘Stros tonight.
Eric Surkamp is a lefty that will throw against a bunch of left-handed bats tonight. Surkamp had a 1.63 WHIP last season, but was able to pull down a lot of strikeouts. He had an OPS of .583 vs RHB and an OPS of 2.81 vs LHB (yes, you read that right). I predict that Leonys Martin, Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz obliterate Surkamp tonight.
Vegas has this game projected at 8 runs with the Giants favored. Stripling is coming off of Tommy John surgery and brings a lot of uncertainty to the mound. Yes the Giants are not playing in a hitter friendly park, but I have a feeling they will crush Stripling who was giving up a homer a game in the minors last season.
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Contrarian is when everybody is looking one way and you go a different direction. That makes the Diamondbacks a great play tonight as everybody will be on the Cubs. The Diamondbacks come in with a team-wOBA of .319 and a team-ISO of .150. Hammel has an OPS against RHB of .728 and an OPS against LHB of .696. Jean Segura, David Peralta and Socrates Brito all have positive handedness wOBA against Hammel in a high scoring matchup.
Sorry Reds fans, it won’t be Simon’s day. Great American Ballpark is definitely a place where the runs can add up quickly. This game is projected to have a 7.5 total, with the Pirates projected to score 4.1 runs. Alfredo Simon had a horrific 4.77 FIP last season and posted a .808 OPS total. Get Andrew McCutchen, David Freese and Starling Marte in your lineups tonight.