The Contrarian Corner will provide a list of players that can separate your MLB lineups from the rest of the pack. We’ll take a look at those players that will likely be low-owned, who have high-upside for the day. Here is the list of today’s daily fantasy baseball picks in the Contrarian Corner at DraftKings.
Garrett Richards ($9,500) – Los Angeles Angels – Carlos Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann are priced within a similar range to Richards (with Zimmermann actually $900 cheaper), and both will almost certainly be rostered at a significantly highers rate than the Angels’ ace. That said, the inconsistent righty’s ceiling is equally high to the other two righties. He’s scored over 28 fantasy points in two of his last three starts, but those starts are sandwiched around a road clunker against his opponent tonight, the Mariners. Over the last 30 days, Richards’ strikeout rate (23.9%) is finally starting to lineup with his elite swinging strike rate on the year (11.0%, per FanGraphs). The sky’s the limit for Richards.
CC Sabathia ($6,600) – New York Yankees – The Rich Hill comeback story doesn’t even feel real, but it is. He’s been remarkable in two starts, and at $4,300 and a home favorite against a club that struggles mightily with lefties, he’s going to be gobbled up as a GPP SP2 on a ton of rosters tonight. While I like Hill more than his division rival lefty Sabathia, being contrarian isn’t always a comfortable thing but can yield great results. With that in mind, let’s dig into the merits of using Sabathia. The veteran lefty has struck out a staggering 24.7% of the batters he’s faced over the last 30 days, and on the year, his 19.4% strikeout rate is respectable, albeit below league average. His opponent is ideal for a quality turn. The Pale Hose rank next to last in wRC+ (75) against lefties and own a 20.4% strikeout rate. He’s no longer an innings horse, but Sabathia and the Yankees are a betting favorite, which helps his odds of netting a win.
Others to Consider – Rubby De La Rosa ($7,400)
Matt Wieters ($3,100) – Baltimore Orioles – As previously noted, Rich Hill should be fairly popular tonight. Ergo using anyone against him is likely to be an unpopular move. Enter Wieters. The switch-hitting catcher isn’t posting the type of walk year he’d like, but he’s done damage against lefties throughout his career (.244 ISO and 122 wRC+ since 2013).
Jose Abreu ($4,800) – Chicago White Sox – The Coors Field game is going to result in high ownership for Adrian Gonzalez for gamers who choose to spend up at first base, and for Justin Morneau as a result of the bargain bin shoppers. Abreu should slip through the cracks, but a matchup with Sabathia at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium provides him a ceiling on par with the Coors Field duo. Yankee Stadium has a right-handed batter park factor of 122 for homers, per StatCorner. The pitching matchup is right for Abreu going off as well. Sabathia has allowed a .368 wOBA to right-handed batters this year.
Dee Gordon ($5,100) – Miami Marlins – Paying up for any players outside of the fireworks in Colorado will be contrarian tonight, making Gordon a low-owned, high-ceiling option at the keystone position. Gordon is a hits machine recording a .322 batting average against righties this year, but it’s his wheels I love. The speedy second baseman ranks second in stolen bases (53) this year, and likely opposing catcher A.J. Pierzynski has surrendered 63 stolen bases in 83 attempts in 102 games played (99 starts).
Adrian Beltre ($4,200) – Texas Rangers – Third base is jam packed with talent tonight, but don’t overlook Beltre. Injuries slowed him down early in the year, but in the second half, he has a .176 ISO, .361 wOBA and 124 wRC+. He’s been even better than that this month, upping his totals to a .180 ISO, .373 wOBA and 133 wRC+. Facing Scott Kazmir isn’t ideal, but hitting at Minute Maid Park is desirable.
Corey Seager ($6,400) – Los Angeles Dodgers – Seager is more expensive than a dozen starting pitchers tonight. For sticker shock reasons alone, I’d expect Seager to be one of the lowest owned pieces of the game in Colorado despite his hot start to his big league career. Of course, a white-hot Xander Bogaerts at a significant discount will also play a hand in suppressing the rookie shortstop’s ownership, too. Getting back to Seager, though, in 46 plate appearances against righties in the majors, he has a .256 ISO, .475 wOBA and 211 wRC+. He’ll get a huge lift from the great park factors at Coors Field, and facing David Hale and the .369 wOBA he’s ceded to lefties this year is tantalizing. It’s not difficult to budget for Seager, so get over the sticker shock and grab some shares of the talented rookie shortstop.
Mike Trout ($4,400) – Los Angeles Angels – How often can you call Trout a contrarian selection? The correct answer is not often. The outfield is loaded with affordable, high-ceiling options at Coors Field, some guy named Bryce Harper at the top of the heap and some other players who will get some love in DFS circles today. Look at that price tag for Trout, though. He’s a steal, as his upside is as high as anyone in the game. He’s set a new career high with 40 homers this season, is posting a career high .293 ISO, and he’s ending his merely human second half with a September flurry (.370 ISO, .434 wOBA and 186 wRC+). Oh, and as a cherry on top, Vidal Nuno is a below average starting pitcher who has been jostled back and forth between the M’s rotation and bullpen.
Others to Consider – Joey Votto ($4,900), Brian Dozier ($4,600), Alex Rodriguez ($4,500)