With a full 15-game slate tonight, you know we’ll have a plethora of options to choose from. With a ton of big named pitchers on the board, this slate is chock full of different way to attack. Let’s jump right in, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-270) vs. PHI – Tanner Roark – The Nationals enter a series against the Phillies, who remain at the bottom of the league in wOBA against right-handed batters at .292. If that wasn’t bad enough, they own a .294 OBP with a .385 SLG, both of which are ranked last. This will be the fifth time this season that Roark faces these Phillies (how about that for a schedule?) where he’s pitched 28 innings allowing just two runs on 16 hits with a 22:6 K:BB ratio. It sounds well and all, but those strikeouts only amount to a 5.8 K/9, which isn’t great from a fantasy perspective. I think Roark will pitch well, but I think he’ll have a tough time returning value on his $9,300 salary.

Highest Totals

CLE vs. MIN – 9 runs – Danny Salazar will take on Tyler Duffey in this one, which I think will have some nice offensive scoring. Salazar has been WILDLY inconsistent as of late, averaging just 7 fantasy points in his last five starts, but his last two have looked good. The Twins have handled him just fine this season, knocking him around for nine runs in just 6.2 innings on nine hits. It’s truly hard to figure out exactly which Salazar shows up tonight, although his overall road numbers have been decent this season. Coming off a August that saw him own a .472 wOBA, I think the Twins make for a sneaky stack tonight.

Now believe me, Tyler Duffey has been no stud either, as he’s been getting knocked around the majority of this season. He’s been decent in his three starts against the Indians, allowing nine runs on 20 hits in 19.1 innings with a 14:4 K:BB ratio. My concern here is that he’s been atrocious at home, where this game will take place. Duffey owns a .398 wOBA at home with a .593 SLG with 15 of his 21 home runs allowed. Right-handed batters have hit him the hardest, owning a .437 wOBA with a .686 SLG, making an Indians stack a very intriguing option in my opinion.


Weather Concerns

CIN vs PIT (PNC Park) – Pittsburgh has a fairly high chance of a thunderstorm to start this game, but the threat greatly diminishes as the night goes on. I wouldn’t worry too much here, but keep an eye on it.

MIL vs STL (Busch Stadium) – The chance of some rain increases as the night progresses, so if a delay does occur, this game could be in some danger. Check the forecast close to first pitch to get a better idea of where they’re at.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – SFG vs ARZ  – The Giants visit the number one hitter’s ballpark on this slate tonight in Chase Field. Coming into this game, all offensive categories are favored.
  • Rogers Centre – BOS vs TOR – Rogers Centre is our number two ballpark for hitters tonight in this super important AL East showdown. As of tonight, all offensive categories except home runs are favored here.
  • Minute Maid Park – HOU vs CHC – Minute Maid Park is currently ranked 30th in the league for ballparks and it will carry that honor into tonight. No categories are favored here.
  • Oakland Coliseum – SEA vs OAK – The Oakland Coliseum is second on our list for worst ballparks for hitters, as the Mariners come to town. As of tonight, only doubles and triples just barely make the list.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Jake Thompson.888.279Clayton Kershaw.349.152
Joe Musgrove.877.302Madison Bumgarner.591.203
Luis Perdomo.867.318Rubby De La Rosa.591.195

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Luis Perdomo.860.322Carlos Martinez.498.194
Tim Adelman.858.275Clayton Kershaw.516.196
Joe Musgrove.835.274Jose Fernandez.556.206

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Brian DozierDanny Salazar233.17
Jose BautistaRick Porcello342.73
Edwin EncarnacionRick Porcello342.64

  • No one is hotter than Brian Dozier right now, so it seems only fitting that he has one of our top BvP spots for tonight. Against Salazar, Dozier is 11-23 with five doubles, two home runs and six RBIs.
  • I don’t usually like to put two hitters from the same team on our BvP list, but I think an exception can be made for today. Bautista is 14-34 against Porcello with three home runs, nine RBIs and six walks.
  • His teammate Edwin Encarnacion has gone 13-34 against Porcello with five doubles, three home runs and 10 RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Martinez – STL vs MIL – $10,300 – We have a lot to love about this start for Martinez against the Brewers. This will be the fourth time these two have met, and Martinez has, for lack of a better term, owned them. In 19 innings, Martinez has allowed two runs on 13 hits with a sensational 32:7 K:BB ratio. For those keeping track at home, that’s good for a K/9 of 15.2 on the season. 15.2!!!! Let’s not even mention the fact that he’s only $10,300, which feels like a bargain compared to the five other pitchers above him.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. BAL (Kevin Gausman) – $4,500 – Again, in what feels like another bargain on the night, Miguel Cabrera is priced all the way down to $4,500 in a matchup at home. In case you haven’t heard, Cabrera has been a beast at Comerica Park this season, averaging 9.8 FPPG with 16 home runs and a .999 OPS. Oh, let’s not forget about his .446 wOBA and .675 SLG in these situations as well. Facing Kevin Gausman, who struggles against right-handed batters on the road with a .389 wOBA with 10 of his 23 home runs allowed, Caberea is a worthy consideration.

Save Big by Drafting…

Marcell Ozuna – MIA vs. LAD (Clayton Kershaw) – $2,800 – If you’ve ready my material all season, you know I always jump on Ozuna when he faces a left-handed pitcher, especially at home. Well guess what, he is today, but it just so happens to be Clayton Kershaw. It’s a TOUGH matchup, but Kershaw is fresh off the DL and who knows, maybe he’s not really 100%. Grabbing Ozuna at $2,800 as he owns a .452 wOBA against lefties at home with a .737 SLG and a .356 OBP is a fantastic GPP play in my opinion.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.