We have a short six game slate going tonight with some rough options at pitcher to choose from. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-200) vs. ATL A.J. Cole – A.J Cole who is making his fourth start of the season and seventh overall in the major leagues. The consensus with Cole is that his success when he was first signed to a minor league contract hasn’t exactly followed him as he’s moved up. He’s looked decent in his three starts this season, but he’s allowing a ton of fly balls, at 68.6% with balls put in play. Cole has also allowed a few home runs quickly this season, with four in just 18.2 innings. This isn’t exactly a power offense that he’s facing tonight, but one can admit that they’re certainly hitting better than they were in the first half of the season. Nonetheless, he’s $8,300 on an extremely thin slate of games, so he’s a viable option in my opinion.

Highest Totals

TBR vs. NYY – 8.5 runs – So every game is projected at 8.5 runs tonight. So, I picked the game I’ll most likely be targeting and that’s the Rays visiting the Yankees. Alex Cobb will oppose CC Sabathia in this one in what I think could be a sneaky high scoring game. Cobb is making his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery where he looked good against the Blue Jays allowing two runs on four hits in five innings with a 7:1 K:BB ratio. I’m still a bit skeptical on him, as Cobb was getting lit up in the minors prior to his call up. The Yankees are hitting better as of late and own a .326 wOBA at home with a .429 SLG and a low 18.6 K%. With the young kids invading this lineup, I think they have sneaky potential to do some damage against Cobb.

For Sabathia, he’s facing the Rays for the third time this season and he hasn’t exactly blown them away. In two starts (both of Yankee Stadium) Sabathia has gone just 10.2 innings allowing six runs on 13 hits with a 9:6 K:BB ratio. The strikeout potential is alive and well as always, but Sabathia has been average at best at home, owning a .324 wOBA with a nine of his 17 home runs allowed here.

Weather Concerns

MIL vs STL (Busch Stadium) – This game has a decent chance of seeing a thunderstorm around first pitch, potentially causing a delay. After that passes, the chances of one drop dramatically.

CIN vs PIT (PNC Park) – The game is almost the polar opposite of Busch Stadium, as it should start off no problem, but storms roll in after. The chances of a storm increases as the night goes on, so if they get caught in one, it could lead to some trouble.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Yankee Stadium – TBR vs NYY  Yankee Stadium checks in as our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. Coming into this game, all offensive categories are favored here except doubles and triples.
  • PNC Park – CIN vs PIT – You can always tell when it’s a short slate when places like PNC Park is the number two destination for hitters tonight. Only runs, doubles and triples get the nod here.
  • Busch Stadium – MIL vs STL – The Brewers are in town visiting the Cardinals and get saddled with the worst ballpark of the night for hitters. No offensive categories have a favorable rating here.
  • Safeco Field – TEX vs SEA – Safeco Field hasn’t been as bad as years past, but it’s still most certainly not a good spot for hitters. Home runs are the only category that get a favorable rating.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Ivan Nova.841.284Derek Holland.533.215
Taijuan Walker.760.208Junior Guerra.627.197
Jaime Garcia.734.267CC Sabathia.653.208

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Clayton Richard.816.310Junior Guerra.622.223
Taijuan Walker.815.294Dan Straily.727.237
Derek Holland.779.273CC Sabathia.730.264

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Logan ForsytheCC Sabathia193.15
Evan LongoriaCC Sabathia702.98
Robinson CanoDerek Holland452.22

  • As a team, the Rays have hit CC Sabathia well, so I’m going to highlight two of the best BvP for tonight. Logan Forsythe comes into this game going 8-19 off Sabathia with four doubles, two home runs and six RBIs.
  • Next we have one the staples in the BvP life with Longoria going against Sabathia. In these epic battles, Longoria has gone 28-70 with nine doubles, seven home runs, 16 RBIs and 13 walks.
  • Finally we wrap up with Robinson Cano taking on Derek Holland. Cano has gone 16-45 with three doubles, a triple, two home runs and nine RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Ivan Nova – PIT vs CIN – $9,800 – On tonight’s limited slate, Nova tops my pitchers. The case can certainly be made for Jaime Garcia going up against the Brewers, but I think he’s a bit expensive and has been wildly inconsistent as of late. Nova gets the Reds at home tonight, and he’s shown he’s a player in the National League. Since coming over to the Pirates, Nova has averaged 18.6 FPPG and has faced this Reds team once already. In that start, Nova went seven innings allowing three runs on six hits with a 5:0 K:BB ratio..

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Ryan Braun – MIL vs. STL (Jaime Garcia) – $4,900 – I like this spot for Braun tonight against Jaime Garcia, even if he’s pitched well at home this season. Garica is always a candidate to let up a big fly and has done so against right-handed hitters nine times this season. Garica has allowed 20 overall and last month was giving them up in bunches with eight total. Braun has been consistent all season and is certainly someone who can take the struggling pitcher deep.

Save Big by Drafting…

Franklin Gutierrez – SEA vs. TEX (Derek Holland) – $3,500 – I’m jumping more on the struggles of Holland against right-handed hitters than I am of the play by Gutierrez against lefties at home. Holland is allowing a .344 wOBA on the road against right-handed batters with seven of his 11 home runs allowed. Gutierrez has been good in these situations, owning a .379 wOBA with a .506 SLG with six of his 14 home runs. Certainly not bad numbers for someone at $3,500.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.