Tuesday brings us a solid 15-game slate tonight with every team taking the field. Let’s get you set for tonight and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine. @SBuchanan24.

 

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-240) vs. ATL On paper, the matchup is an attractive one for Gio Gonzalez, as the Braves own a .308 wOBA against lefties with a .325 OBP and a .384 SLG. The Braves aren’t the easiest team to strikeout either with there 19 K%. With Gonzalez priced at $9,300, I think he’s a bit expensive for this matchup, only because his ceiling isn’t that high compared to his price. Needing almost 30 fantasy points to return value, I think you are better off suited looking elsewhere, as we have a TON of pitchers tonight in the mid-tier price range. Again, this is not a bad start by any means; I just don’t think it’s worth the price tag.

Highest Totals

SFG vs. COL – 11.5 runs – Coors Field has a projected run total of 11.5 tonight as Jeff Samardzija and Tyler Anderson take the mound. Samardzija pitches against the Rockies for the third time this season and he’s actually done quite well against them. Both of those starts came early in the season but nonetheless, in two starts, Coors Field included, Samardzija pitched 15.2 innings allowing four runs on 14 hits with a 14:3 K:BB ratio. We may be hard pressed into thinking the third time is the charm here for Samardzija, but he is coming off a fantastic month of August. Holding opposing hitters to a .272 wOBA with a .359 SLG and a 7.1 K/9 is certainly impressive.

Anderson faces the Giants for the second time this season, and in his first outing he went six innings allowing three runs on four hits with just a 2:1 K:BB ratio. It was a bit surprising, as the Giants have not performed well against left-handed pitching at all, owning a .315 wOBA with a .322 OBP and a .409 SLG. The biggest factor going against Anderson, as evidenced in his previous start, is the lack of strikeouts. I think we have much more value in other games tonight.


Weather Concerns

TOR vs NYY (Yankee Stadium)- Yankee Stadium could be a pretty messy spot tonight if the rain ends up coming around. With a chance of rain all night and a 14mph wind blowing in from left field, make sure you monitor this forecast.

KCR vs MIN (Target Field)- This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night with at least a 50% chance or higher. This will certainly be one to look at closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – SFG vs COL Here is your daily reminder that Coors Field is home of the number one ballpark for hitters. Coming into this game and seemingly every game, all offensive categories are favored here.
  • Progressive Field – HOU vs CLE – Progressive Field is home to the number two ballpark on this night as they welcome in the Houston Astros. As of today, all offensive categories are favored here except triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – ARZ vs LAD – The D-Backs are in town to face the Dodgers in tonight’s worst ballpark for hitters. Coming into this game, no categories favor hitters.
  • Tropicana Field – BAL vs TBR – Tropicana Field is home to the second worst ballpark on this slate for hitters. Only walks get the nod for hitters in this spot.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Luke Weaver1.136.355Martin Perez.517.172
Shelby Miller.982.329Tyler Anderson.556.222
Wily Peralta.916.318Gio Gonzalez.568.202

 

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Paul Clemens1.011.330Aaron Sanchez.557.223
Adam Morgan.969.318Williams Perez.564.226
Wily Peralta.906.322Luke Weaver.593.200

 

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Anthony RizzoWily Peralta284.03
Brian DozierDillon Gee143.5
Kyle SeagerMartin Perez272.4

  • ”Oh my goodness.” That was the only phrase I could muster when I saw the BvP for Rizzo against Peralta for tonight. Coming into this game, Rizzo is 14-28 with three doubles, five home runs, 11 RBIs and four walks. That will do!
  • Brian Dozier has hit multi bombs off of Dillon Gee in their prior matchups, and with the way he’s hitting he could do that again tonight. Dozier is 5-14 with a double and three solo bombs.
  • I was a bit surprised about the numbers Seager has against Perez, as he’s not usually a good hitter when facing left-handed pitching. Nonetheless, Seager is 10-27 with three home runs and five RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Corey Kluber – CLE vs HOU – $12,600 So here’s the deal, I’m not thrilled with this matchup for Kluber at home, but he’s the only pitcher that could realistically reach 30 fantasy points tonight. He faces a Houston offense that strikes out a ton against right-handed pitching, with a 23% K rate, which ranks fifth in the league. On the season, Kluber owns a 9.2 K/9 that falls ever so slightly at home to 9.1. Truly, I’m splitting hairs here. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been good at home with a .286 wOBA to go with a .383 SLG, I think I just personally worry about what Houston CAN do and not so much what they WILL do.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. MIL (Wily Peralta) – $5,400 – I don’t even care if you’re not a fan of BvP, you’re going to be a fan of it today. Those numbers don’t lie, Rizzo has owned Peralta in his career and tonight should be no different. But even if those numbers weren’t a factor, Rizzo has been fantastic on the road against right-handed pitching this season, owning a .426 wOBA with a .628 SLG and a .406 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Kendrys Morales – KCR vs. MIN (Ervin Santana) – $3,500 – Morales has been one of my favorite value plays for the past month or so now. He takes on Ervin Santana, who’s been good on the mound as of late, but is a candidate to surrender a big fly or two. At home, he’s allowed nine of his 16 home runs with seven of those coming against a right-handed bat. Righties also own a .364 wOBA against him with a .503 SLG.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.