With today being Friday, that can only mean one thing. I know everyone get’s pumped up for Fridays, so I always look forward to them. Friday is the day where we give away some DraftKings tickets. Yup, all you have to do is follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24, I’ll post a question that will have the answer contained in this article, you send me a direct message with the answer and BOOM, you’re entered. Today, we’re giving away 3 $33 MLB Slugfest tickets for tonight! So make sure to read this article, head over to my Twitter page and good luck! We have a 14 game slate tonight so let’s jump right into it!
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
This section is to showcase who the Vegas favorites are on the night. Not my own personal choices.
Tanner Roark vs. Atlanta Braves (-256) – The Braves really are just a sad, sad team. Even the addition of Freddie Freeman to the lineup doesn’t help their cause that much. I mean, we start off tonight with Roark as the favorite pitcher, according to Vegas, and he’s going to cost us $4,200. Now, if a pitcher is that cheap, it’s not because DraftKings is being nice, it’s because he truly deserves that salary. So, how do you feel about that Atlanta!? Roark enters tonight with a 4.54 ERA to go with a 1.30 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.9. Roark has been in the bullpen this year, but gets a spot start due to Strasburg having back issues. I think that makes it look even worse for Atlanta! A relief pitcher is that heavily favored over them. Roark did get sent down to the minors in order to be stretched out so he’s not coming in completely cold turkey. The Braves have one of the worst wOBA in the second half of the season, and one of the sad parts is, I don’t see it getting any better tonight. It’s been that bad folks. I don’t know if I would recommend starting Roark tonight, because I don’t know how deep in the game he’ll be able to go, but hey, the choice is yours.
Joe Kelly vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200) – Now here’s something I didn’t expect to see, is Joe Kelly favored in a game. Kelly has had an atrocious 2015, that is until we hit the month of August. In six August starts, Kelly owned a 2.55 ERA to go with a 28:11 K:BB ratio and a 1.23 WHIP. I mean, this is a guy who prior to this month, had his lowest ERA in April at 4.94. Not something any of us expected. With that being said, Vegas is liking this “new” Joe Kelly that we’ve been seeing and has him favored over the Phillies tonight. The Phillies have been hitting well since the All Star Break, but they still have their games where they look the Phillies of old. Kelly still has to work on his splits, as he owns a .365 wOBA against righties and a .305 against lefties, but truly, he looks like a completely different pitcher on the mound than he has at any other point this season. He’s only going to cost $6,400 tonight, so in terms of a value play, he could be a perfect player for that.
Jacob deGrom vs. Miami Marlins (-180) – Truly, the only aspect about this start that doesn’t make it a slam dunk, is how little the Marlins strike out. They have the second to lowest K% on the season at 18%. Otherwise, deGrom would be a beast in this start. Coming into tonight, deGrom has some nasty splits. Against righties, deGrom is only giving up a .204 wOBA on the season, which truly is amazing. That’s Dallas Keuchel level when he faces lefties. Speaking of lefties, deGrom owns a .278 wOBA against them. The Marlins, like the Braves, are one of the worst hitting clubs in the second half of the season. The other factor that concerned me a bit, was that the Marlins run out a leftie heavy lineup when facing a RHP. Don’t get me wrong, deGrom doesn’t struggle against lefties, but he certainly is worse off against them. Digging a little deeper into his stats, I come to find out that deGrom actually has a higher K/9 against lefties than he does righties, so go figure. I think deGrom is going to be the top option tonight, with a second straight day of weak pitching upon us.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) – 10.5 Over/Under – Another game at Coors Field means another day of the highest projected run total of the night. This game features Chris Heston taking on Jorge De La Rosa in this one. Heston enters tonight with a 3.56 ERA to go with a 1.25 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.6. Heston has pitched in Coors Field twice this season and his not been met with much success. In two starts this season, Heston has given up 12 runs in just 11 innings pitched. Add in the fact that he struggled in his first start back from the minors and we got a good looking matchup for the Rockies. Heston really struggles against left handed batters, as he owns a .347 wOBA when facing them this season. As for De La Rosa, he comes in with a 4.40 ERA to go with a 1.40 WHIP and a K/9 of 8. Both these teams haven’t exactly been getting it done with their bats this season, so I’m curious to find out if this game will actually be a high scoring affair or not. One reason this could be is De La Rosa and his struggles at Coors. He owns a 5.91 ERA at home compared to a 3.22 on the road. Nine of his 15 home runs given up this season have come at home, where his WHIP is also much higher at 1.61 compared to his 1.19 on the road. Overall, I think this could be a decent games of runs, but maybe not as much as usual, just because both teams are struggling to find their offense.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Martin Perez vs. LA Angels- Ah yes, another five days has come and gone, as Perez jumps up to the top of the list with his dominance against left handed pitching. Perez owns a .192 wOBA against lefties this season. Before you get all giddy, just know that his wOBA against righties is a world away from lefties, as he owns a .365 against righties. Not so excited anymore are you?
Adam Morgan vs. Boston Red Sox- Morgan, just like Perez, is solid when it comes to facing left handed batters, but not so much with righties. Morgan enters today with a .238 wOBA against lefties, which is great! Just don’t throw a right handed batter in his path, he owns a .360 wOBA against them. All these pitchers giving you false hope I tell ya.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Jacob deGrom vs. Miami Marlins – No surprise here with deGrom being the top against righties, as I eluded to earlier. I hope you didn’t mind the spoiler alert. deGrom enters his nice matchup with the Marlins tonight with a .204 wOBA against righties.
Luis Severino vs. Tampa Bay Rays- If you can afford it, Severino paired with deGrom tonight could be a deadly one two punch in your lineup. He’s been fantastic for the Yankees this season, and even more so when facing RHB. Severino comes into tonight with a .212 wOBA against them this season.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Keyvius Sampson vs. Milwaukee Brewers- I don’t think Sampson has been enjoying his time in the major league so far. He’s been having a disaster of a season and I don’t think it will get much better tonight either. Sampson enters tonight’s start with a .417 wOBA against lefties this season.
Julio Teheran vs. Washington Nationals- I’ll give credit where credit is due, Teheran has been pitching much better as of late, if you forget that he got shelled by the Yankees his last time out. But besides that, he’s been getting after it. However, lefties seem to continue to get after him, as he owns a .391 wOBA on the season against them
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters.
Drew Hutchison vs. Baltimore Orioles – For someone with such a high record (13-2, what a joke) Hutchison sure does see his struggles against righties. The King of run support, Hutchison enters tonight with a .370 wOBA against right handed batters. But hey, he’s EARNED 13 wins this season, right?
Joe Kelly vs. Philadelphia Phillies- As I mentioned earlier, Kelly is pitching much better as of late, but he’s still struggling when facing right handed batters. He owns a .365 wOBA on the season against him, but it’s been going down this past month. Kelly hopes to keep that momentum going tonight.
Ryan Zimmerman 1B/3B ($4200) – I’m just going to keep him on this list for a second day in a row. Truly, no one hotter (baseball wise) than Zimmerman right now. He continues to crush the ball after what was going to be deemed to be a lost 2015 season. Zimmermann enters tonight 13-28 with five home runs, 14 RBIs, and eight runs scored. The fact that he hasn’t stole a base for the hell of it during this streak, is disappointing.
Carlos Gonzalez OF ($4700) – Gonzalez has stayed relatively healthy this season, which is a real treat for baseball fans because CarGo truly is a five tool player. Coming into tonight, Gonzalez is 10-30 with five home runs, 13 RBIs, and seven runs scored.
Joey Votto 1B ($5200) – After Todd Frazier really started to tail off after the All Star Break, Votto has continued to pick up the slack. Votto enters tonight 11-20 with three home runs, eight RBIs, six runs scored and hey, he stole a base as well. I mean why the hell not?
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Miguel Cabrera vs. Corey Kluber- Ohhhhhh boy do we have some good BvP for you tonight. We starts off with the machine known as Miguel Cabrera going up against Corey Kluber. Cabrera is 20-35 against Kluber with seven extra base hits, five of them being home runs and a 1.652 OPS. Even if you don’t like BvP, this might just have to be one of those days where you suck it up and like it.
Brian McCann vs. Jake Odorizzi- McCann rarely has made an out when he faces Odorizzi. It’s almost unfair. McCann is 10-16 against Odorizzi with six extra base hits, two of them being home runs, and a 1.960 OPS. I mean, talk about seeing a pitcher well.
Gregory Polanco vs. Carlos Martinez- I know, this is a small sample, but truly, what on earth does Martinez have to do to get Polanco out!?! Polanco is 8-11 against Martinez with three extra base hits and a 1.877 OPS. 8 for god damn 11! That’s impressive.
We have three games tonight that you’ll want to keep an eye on due to weather. So make sure you do so, unless you feel like donating your money tonight. Make sure to send me an invite.
Atlanta at Washington
Cleveland at Detroit
San Francisco at Colorado
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Jacob deGrom ($11,400) – It was really neck and neck for deGrom and Severino tonight on who to start. They both have favorable matchups, deGrom is a bit weaker in terms of strikeouts because of how little the Marlins strike out, but ultimately, I like deGrom. You truly can’t deny how dominant he’s been this season, coming into tonight with his 2.32 ERA and his 0.95 WHIP with a K/9 of 9.4. deGrom is also averaging 22.3 points per start, which would certainly be a nice start to your lineup. As I mentioned a couple times in this article, the Marlins are really a sad state of affairs when it comes to hitting. deGrom has let up a fair share of home runs this season with 15, but I truly don’t think we have to worry about that to much with the Marlins tonight. Finally, as I also mentioned this, the Marlins go leftie heavy when facing a RHP, as they usually have five lefties in their lineup, but deGrom has a higher K/9 against lefties than he does righties, so I hope that will play a factor tonight. He’s expensive, but I think worth the price of admission tonight.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Miguel Cabrera ($4600) – I usually try and stay away from putting a BvP guy in this section here, because overall, you can’t rely too heavily on the BvP, especially when you’re paying up for someone. However, we have exceptions to the rules and this is my article! Cabrera has straight up filthy numbers against Kluber. We can run down them one more time. Cabrera is 20-35 against Kluber with seven extra base hits, five of them being home runs and a 1.652 OPS. If you REALLY want to go deeper, Cabrera owns a .433 wOBA against RHP with an ISO of .215. I mean, if that’s not enough to convince you, I don’t know what it would take. Cabrera is truly “cheap” for tonight, running you for $4,600. You really can’t come up with many excuses to leave him off your team.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Adrian Gonzalez ($3300) – I’m not really sure why Gonzalez is priced so low. He hasn’t been the force we’re used to, but damn, $3300!? Fine with me, I’ll take it. I recommended him last night and he had an awful game, so he owes me one. Tonight, Gonzalez faces James Shields, who really struggles against left handed batters. On the season, Shields owns a .369 wOBA against them while giving up a ton of home runs, 17 to be exact. I get that they’re at Petco tonight, but Shields has still given up 13 of this 26 home runs at home. Add on the fact that Gonzalez owns a .368 wOBA against RHP and I think we have quite a nice matchup ahead of us for a cheap price.