With 14 games being played tonight, we have a huge night on DraftKings to look forward to. I’ll get you set for this slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

PHI (-166) vs ATL– Vince Velasquez – Velasquez gets the nod tonight as he takes on the Braves for the third time this season. In those starts, Velasquez has gone 12 innings, allowing six runs on 13 hits with a 10:4 K:BB ratio. To be fair, both of these games came on the road for Velasquez and he’s the owner of some extreme home/road splits. On the road, Velasquez owns a .368 wOBA with a .490 SLG with a 9.2 K/9. At home, it’s a much different story. Velasquez owns a .280 wOBA at Citizens Bank Park with a .369 SLG and an 11.8 K/9. At $8,300, Velasquez provides some serious value against this Braves team.

Higheat Totals

ARZ vs. COL – 11.5 runs – – The highest run total of the night goes to none other than Coors Field! This is the highest run total of the series at 11.5 runs, as Braden Shipley and Tyler Chatwood take the mound in this one. Shipley is priced at the $4,000 minimum tonight and rightfully so. Shipley is allowing just under a .400 wOBA to righties on the season and .336 to lefties with eight home runs allowed in eight starts. Shipley has sprinkled a couple of good starts this season, but in no way shape or form can he be trusted in this matchup in my opinion. 53% of the hits that Shipley has allowed this season have gone for extra bases, so what’s that tell you?

With Chatwood, he’s only a viable option if he’s on the road, as his home/road splits are immensely different. Tonight’s concern is those home splits, where he’s allowing a .363 wOBA to go with a .476 SLG with eight of his 10 home runs allowed. To be fair, Chatwood HAS pitched somewhat better at Coors Field lately, averaging 18.5 FPPG against the Rangers, Dodgers and Braves. I feel as though the D-Backs are a good enough team on the road that they should be able to handle Chatwood tonight.

Weather Concerns

For the second straight night, we have a clear night of baseball ahead of us.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – ARZ vs COL – As always, whenever a series takes place at Coors Field, it’s the number one ballpark on our list. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Progressive Field – MIA vs CLE – Progressive Field will host some interleague play this weekend, as the Marlins come to town. Heading into tonight, every offensive category except triples are favored here.
  • Dodger Stadium – SDP vs LAD – Dodger Stadium is always dwelling near the bottom of the barrel for offensive categories. In a shock to no one, all categories favor pitchers here.
  • Citizens Bank Park– ATL vs PHI – Citizens Bank Park is hosting the Braves tonight at their unfavorable ballpark. Only home runs and triples are favored here.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Michael Fulmer – DET vs KCR – $9,600 I love this price for Fulmer tonight taking on the Royals offense. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from the Royals since the All-Star break, especially as of late as they’ve been scoring runs in bunches, but overall they’ve been scuffling. Since the ASB, the Royals own a .294 wOBA with a .302 OBP and a .379 SLG. They’ve also been striking out more than they usually do with a 20.5 K%. Fulmer at $9,600 seems to make sense for this matchup as he’s pitched well on the road. Fulmer hasn’t been as dominant as he was in the first half, but he’s still holding opposing hitters to a .291 wOBA.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Brian Dozier – MIN vs. CHW (James Shields) – $5,100 – I recently had Dozier as my top hitter for the night and I have no shame in putting him back in quickly. He’s facing James Shields, who is the king of allowing home runs. Coming into this game, Shields is averaging 3.8 home runs PER NINE INNINGS!!! Shields has allowed 32 home runs this season with 20 of those coming off the bat of a right-handed hitter. Dozier is the best home run hitter on the Twins and his hit four in his last 10 games.

Save Big by Drafting…

Yangervis Solarte – SDP vs. LAD (Rich Hill) – $2,800 – Rich Hill has had his start pushed back more times than I care to keep track of. Supposedly, it all stems from a blister that’s been giving him all this trouble. So, one has to wonder just how sharp he’s going to look tonight. I’m interested in taking a flier on Solarte, who owns a .384 wOBA against lefties on the road with a .581 SLG and a .915 OPS. He’s dirt cheap for someone that bats third in the lineup for the Padres.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.