Toda is going to be another tough day for baseball. Yesterday saw quite a few delays and rainouts and today is unfortunately going to be no different. On the bright side, we do have plenty of other games that will be played tonight and should still be able to squeeze in another day of making that money. Let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
This section is to showcase who the Vegas favorites are on the night. Not my own personal choices.
Garrett Richards vs. Oakland A’s (-230) – This pick by Vegas totally makes sense to me. Richards is certainly not the most talented pitcher on the slate tonight, but he does have one of the most favorable matchups and should be in line to grab a win. He faces off against Barry Zito (yes, THE Barry Zito) tonight, who is making his second start for the A’s. Zito wasn’t looking very sharp in his first outing with the A’s, and I don’t expect things to get much better in this one either. Even with how poorly the Angels have been hitting. Richards hasn’t been bad though by any stretch, as he comes into tonight with a 3.73 ERA to go with a 1.24 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.5. He’s pitched well in his last two starts, scoring 28.1 and 24.4 against the Twins and the Mariners. With his price tag $9,200, you have to like this matchup for him. With the A’s entering tonight with a .306 wOBA in the second half, you have to like your chances with Richards.
Yovani Gallardo vs. Detroit Tigers (-189) – I honestly thought Gallardo wasn’t pitching tonight when I was looking for his salary. He’s dropped all the way down to $5,700! Granted, he’s certainly not going to win you any events with the way he’s been pitching lately, but still, as a favored pitcher on the night to run you for $5,700 is at least somewhat enticing. Gallardo only averages 12.4 fantasy points per game, but lately he hasn’t even been hitting that mark. In his last two starts, Gallardo has scored 8.5 and 7.3 in his last two starts against the Astros and Mariners. Tonight, he faces a Tigers team that owns a .313 wOBA in the second half of the season. They’ve been hitting slightly better lately, but still nothing to write home about. What intrigues me about Gallardo, is that he’s certainly underperforming lately, and thus his price tag as dropped low enough that he almost becomes someone I’d seriously consider. Now, I’m not expecting a 20 points affair from him, but in a GPP tonight, he could be a sneaky play. Just make sure your expectations are in check. Expect the worst but hope for the best.
*Logan Verrett vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-182) -*Once again, we have to decide about Verrett and his enticing option as a pick tonight. Verrett has gotten some of the easiest matchups in baseball this season, and has yet to impress us. In his two starts against the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, Verrett has scored a combined 18.6 points. 12.9 against Miami and 5.7 against the Atlanta. Now, with his price tag coming in at $4,000, value wise, he doesn’t have to do much to reach that value. However with pitchers, I do want a little more than say 10 points on a night, because otherwise, the rest of my team is really going to have to carry the rest of the load to try and win an event. Yet, once again, Verrett has a prime matchup against a really struggling offense and he costs the bare minimum. Of course the problem tonight is the rain, which could jack up all our plans here to begin with. Certainly watch this weather, but give Verrett a consideration if it clears out, which I’m not sure it will.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Soooooo, the majority of the highest projected run total games fall under the “Super destructive rain storm” category for the night. So rather than going into a big analysis over a game that most likely will get cancelled, here’s the top three projections for tonight, weather permitting.
9 runs- Mets @ Phillies
9 runs- Detroit @ Texas
8.5 runs- Rockies @Diamondbacks
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Zach Davies vs. San Diego Padres- Davies hasn’t spent a lot of time in the majors this season, but’s it’s been enough to qualify as the best pitcher against left handed batters tonight. Davies enters tonight with a .213 wOBA against lefties.
Drew Smyly vs. Miami Marlins- Another pitcher who hasn’t been in the majors to long this season, but Smyly has been getting it done against left handed batters. Coming into tonight, Smyly owns a .240 wOBA.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Logan Verrett vs. Philadelphia Phillies-Once thing is for sure, Verrett hasn’t been as bad as the scoring looks. Against righties, he’s the best on the night with a wOBA of .231.
Cody Anderson vs. Minnesota Twins- Boy, we really have some big names in this section today, don’t we? Anderson checks in as the second best pitcher against righties tonight, with his .264 wOBA.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Matt Boyd vs. Texas Rangers- Ah yes, it must be five days ago that we talked about Matt Boyd, because here he is, headlining the easiest pitcher against lefties section. Boyd still owns an atrocious .477 wOBA against lefties this season.
Williams Perez vs. Washington Nationals- Perez checks in as the second worst pitcher against lefties tonight, as his .376 wOBA against them is a clear indication. However, no one looks that bad when you come after Boyd.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters.
Alec Asher vs. New York Mets- I don’t think Asher is enjoying his time in the major leagues. Just a hunch I have. But that hunch also came about when I saw he owns a .423 wOBA against right handed batters. But again, just a hunch.
Kevin Gausman vs. Toronto Blue Jays- Overall, no one has been that bad against right handed pitching with the exception of these two guys. Gausman comes into tonight with a .362 wOBA against them.
Lucas Duda 1B ($4100) –Saying that Duda is hot right now would be an understatement. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball right now. Let’s just hope he saves some for the playoffs. Duda is 9-17 with five home runs, 15 RBIs, and seven runs scored.
Jarrett Parker OF ($4000) – Parker continues to crush the ball as well. If he’s not hitting a home run, he’s, well, not hitting. Parker is 7-17 with five home runs, nine RBIs, and six runs scored.
Prince Fielder 1B ($4800) – Fielder has been knocking in those runs lately like it’s nobody’s business. Fielder is 11-29 with two home runs 11 RBIs, and five runs scored.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Salvador Perez vs. Jose Quintana- We actually have three Royals hitters that hit Quintana very well. Perez has had the most success against him, so this is he’s here. Perez is 15-41 against Quintana with seven extra base hits, two of them being home runs, and a 1.068 OPS.
Franklin Gutierrez vs. Scott Kazmir- I’m a big fan of Scott Kazmir, but apparently Gutierrez is as well. He’s 10-23 against Kazmir with five extra base hits, three home runs, and a 1.348 OPS.
Yan Gomes vs. Kyle Gibson- Gomes has seen Gibson quite well in the short amount of time these two have faced each other. Gomes is 6-11 against Gibson with three extra base hits, two of them being home runs and a 1.765 OPS.
Well, at least we only have five problematic games tonight instead of the six. Here you go!
Blue Jays at Orioles
Mets at Phillies
Red Sox at Yankees
Cardinals at Pirates
Nationals at Braves
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Jon Lester($9,600) –Lester feels a bit cheap to me tonight, even though I normally wouldn’t consider $9,600 a bargain. He gets a matchup against the Reds, who are pretty weak against left handed pitchers this season with a wOBA of .314, which ranks 17th in the league. The strikeout rate isn’t that great, at 20.6%, but Lester has a nice K/9 of 9 on the season, which I think could be close to obtainable tonight. Lester has also been lights out this month, as he’s only allowed more than two runs once in the entire month of September in a matchup against the Cardinals. I think Lester matches up nicely against the Reds and his salary certainly won’t crush you tonight. As an added bonus, because were nearing the end of the season, I also like Garrett Richards and Drew Smyly tonight.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Paul Goldschmidt ($5600) – I actually have a couple of other guys I like better than Goldy tonight, but the damn rain is ruining all my plans. I post this super early in the morning, so obviously the weather can change dramatically between now and tonight, so for what it’s worth, I do like Yoenis Cespedes and Bryce Harper tonight, as they have some really nice wOBA splits against their opposing pitcher. But, we can just stay safe and go with Goldy tonight. Against right handed pitchers, Goldy owns a .399 wOBA with an ISO of .235. Going up against Chad Bettis for the Rockies, he’s allowing a .352 wOBA to right handed batters tonight. As Borat would say, “I likkkkkkeeeeeeee.”
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Mike Napoli ($3300) – It’s pretty painful to throw Napoli into this section, as he’s really not the same guy he was a few years ago. But once thing is for certain, is that he can hit left handed pitching. Who better to matchup against than Matt Boyd? Boyd is allowing a .359 wOBA to right handed batters this season while Napoli owns a .400 wOBA with an ISO of .274 against lefties. I know right? A lot higher than you expected, isn’t it? Let’s get it, Nap!