Tonight features a 10-game slate of games as teams continue to make their final push to the playoffs. Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

SF (-189) vs. COL – Johnny Cueto – The Giants and Johnny Cueto get the nod for the heavy favorites on this Thursday night slate. Making his final start of the regular season, Cueto enters this game having faced the Rockies three times in 2016 with some stellar results. Cueto has gone 23.1 innings allowing just three runs on 19 hits with a 16:4 K:BB ratio, averaging out to be 25.7 FPPG. Also, the Rockies have the lowest implied run total at just 2.9 tonight. Cueto has only allowed three of his 15 home runs at home this season, and while his salary isn’t the friendliest I’ve ever seen, $11,200 is certainly affordable on this slate.

Highest Total

BAL vs. TOR – 9 runs – – None of the games on this slate tonight are projected in the double digits, so Baltimore at Toronto is the highest on the night. Ubaldo Jimenez will take on Marcus Stroman in this one with both teams looking to stay in the Wild Card hunt. Entering this start, Jimenez has allowed 15 runs in 14.1 innings with a 14:8 K:BB ratio, which helps explain why the Blue Jays have an implied run total of 5.2.

Stroman has been equally as bad against the Orioles this season, allowing 14 runs on 24 hits in just 16 innings of work in his three starts. Stroman has been decent at home this season, but not trustworthy by any means. I like the Orioles here better than last night, as they hit right-handed pitching much better than they do lefties, and they have an implied run total of 4.

Weather Concerns

CHC vs. PIT (PNC Park) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at PNC Park tonight. It doesn’t exactly look promising late in the evening either, so this could end up being a trouble spot. Check the weather closer to first pitch here.

TBR vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular) – This game will feature a chance of rain that will diminish as the night goes on. As always, be sure to double-check the weather closer to game time.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – MIN vs KC – Kauffman Stadium checks in as our number one ballpark on this 10-game slate tonight. Every offensive category except home runs is favored here.
  • Rogers Centre – BAL vs TOR – The Rogers Centre is the number two ballpark for hitters on our list tonight as they host the Orioles. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Busch Stadium – CIN vs STL – Busch Stadium is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight as they host the Reds. No offensive categories are favored at this venue.
  • U.S. Cellular Field – TB vs CHW – Coming from Tropicana Field, the Rays don’t lose too much to the park shift at U.S Cellular. Home runs and triples get the nod at this park.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Henry Owens.952.364Danny Duffy.451.183
Kyle Gibson.892.331Jose Quintana.627.238
Ariel Miranda.891.324Dan Straily.653.193

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Henry Owens1.136.288Alex Reyes.471.150
Kyle Gibson.750.265Johnny Cueto.598.221
Danny Duffy.749.249Jeremy Hellickson.675.232

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Michael SaundersUbaldo Jimenez194.15
Robinson CanoKendall Graveman143.38
Nelson CruzKendall Graveman153.25

  • Michael Saunders is certainly looking forward to his matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez tonight, as he’s gone 9-19 with a double, four home runs, nine RBIs and two walks.
  • Now we have two Mariners that have hit Kendall Graveman especially hard in some short samples. Robinson Cano is 6-14 with four doubles, a home run and three RBIs.
  • Also facing Kendall Graveman, Nelson Cruz has gone 10-15 with two doubles, a home runs and four RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Johnny Cueto – SFG vs COL – $11,200– Yes, he’s mildly expensive, but Cueto has been simply dominant at AT&T Park this season. As I mentioned, the Rockies are only tabbed for 2.9 projected runs tonight. He is a bit expensive, but paying up for someone who owns just a .259 wOBA at home AND has pitched well against the Rockies both home and away makes the most sense here in my opinion.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Freddie Freeman – ATL vs. PHI (Jeremy Hellickson) – $5,200 – I can’t deny it, the Braves are crushing the ball right now, and Freeman is on a ridiculous streak at the moment. Scoring in the double-digits in nine of his last 10 games and riding a 30 game hit streak, Freeman matches up with Jeremy Hellickson tonight. On the season, Hellickson is allowing a .325 wOBA to lefties on the road. Given the matchup, I think Freeman will continue the hot-hitting trend tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Troy Tulowitzki – TOR vs. BAL (Ubaldo Jimenez) – $3,800 – I really like grabbing Tulo at under $4K tonight, considering he’s in the highest projected run total of the night and he hits just outside the heart of the order. Tulo certainly has improved his home numbers, owning a .338 wOBA at home against righties with a .457 SLG and a .332 OBP. I think he’ll add to those numbers tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.